Twitter- Golden scents looks pretty good going to the saddling barn
Saturday, May 4, 2013
Twitter- Bill Northey
Bill Northey (@BNorthey) tweeted at 2:05 PM on Sat, May 04, 2013: Kentucky 1st in #thoroughbred breeding w/ $1b/yr in sales. #KentuckyDerby has run every yr since 1875. Iowa's #corn industry worth $12b+.
Derby Picks
Overanalyze. Normandy invasion. Palice malice. W. P. S. Will take charge and frac daddy round out my box quinella.
From Rob Rudolphi
Derby Picks
I haven't followed it very closely. I would probably have to pick a favorite. I will go varranzo sp? And my long shot is my lute. You?
From Adam White
Run for the Roses
Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) tweeted at 9:04 AM on Sat, May 04, 2013: The #KyDerby garland of roses just arrived! @KrogerCo uses around 500 roses when constructing this Derby tradition. http://t.co/EbExXmcw2k
From Jordyn Burco @ Churchill Downs
Burco Photography (@BurcoPhotograph) tweeted at 8:12 AM on Sat, May 04, 2013: Please let me get lucky today! Its going to be raining all day..makes the betting more interesting. #kyderby
Kentucky Oaks Champ
Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) tweeted at 4:54 PM on Fri, May 03, 2013: OFFICIAL: Princess of Sylmar is the 139th @Longines #KyOaks champion!
Friday, May 3, 2013
Jordyn Burco's Pick Wins #KyOaks
Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) tweeted at 7:53 PM on Fri, May 03, 2013: Long shot Princess of Sylmar (38-1) wins @Longines #KyOaks for Pletcher, Smith http://t.co/zK2JnTFU0m
Our Reply: As seen previously on the blog today, our local expert picks the winner if the Oaks race at Churchill Downs... tune in Tomorrow for her Derby picks!
From Jordyn Burco @ Churchill Downs
About 5 mins! Midnight lucky looks like she doesn't like the crowd.
Eastern IA Attitudes
Mark Kaiser (@markgskaiser) tweeted at 2:50 PM on Fri, May 03, 2013: "@newscoffeeshop: what's the farmers attitudes like your way?" Ready for the warmer weather 2morrow. Either doing paper work or shop work.
Ready to plant anyway!
Market to Market (@MarketToMarket) tweeted at 0:35 PM on Fri, May 03, 2013: ! RT @shmalec13: RT @pedersoncasey: Getting tired of sitting around the shop I'm gunna go plant some corn #plant13 http://t.co/R5Z3PBh8g1
Humor
Bradford Forkner (@BradForkner) tweeted at 11:45 AM on Fri, May 03, 2013: Difference between a branch manager and an assistant branch manager!! http://t.co/b1hVBX8q2U (
Record Choice Beef Cutout Prices
Kristy Lage (@cowlage) tweeted at 11:28 AM on Fri, May 03, 2013: On Thursday May 2, the Choice beef cutout averaged $200.58 per hundredweight, topping the $200 milestone for the first time ever.
#KyDerby Scratch
Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) tweeted at 10:35 AM on Fri, May 03, 2013: Breaking News: Black Onyx has been scratched from #KyDerby 139. Stewards decide that post 1 will be left open. More info coming.
Kentucky Oaks Profiles 2 of 2
Kentucky Oaks Profile 2 of 2
6.) Princess of Sylmar - Here's my girl! This one I will most likely be playing to win. She will be at a price of over 20-1 on Oaks day. She was undefeated, until Close Hatches beat her in the Gazelle. Thing is though, that I will throw out the Gazelle, because Close Hatches had the race her way, with the perfect pace for Close Hatches. When all these fillies will be going for the lead and tiring them selves out, watch for this girl to be picking them up late. She a very talented filly, but her last start will make you think she's not. So, don't be fooled by it. I know the Oaks, is one of the toughest fields assembled in over a decade, and she will really have to show her stuff on Friday, but with that price and quality....I'm willing to play her. You don't have to jump on her bandwagon with me, because I under stand that other fillies in here look better, but this one will pay the big bucks.
7.) Pure Fun - This is the biggest long shot in the field. She has showed a poor record in her 3 year old career. Don't expect much from this one, so wont be waiting time writing about her.
8.) Dreaming of Julia - Now here's your powerhouse horse! If this filly was in the Derby, I'd most likely be playing her, mainly because she would love the distance. Julia, was one of the best 2 year old's last year, so she has the foundation, and in her first start this year she was a close 2nd. I would like to ask a lot of questions of to why she ran 2nd, but it may be because the horse who finished 1st also had the lead all by herself, so could do whatever she wanted. But, Julia came back to win the Florida Oaks by over 20 lengths in a hand ride. It wasn't the toughest field, but I think shes coming into her own now. Don't be shocked if this one wins. She will be your favorite at a short price, so if your like me, maybe go somewhere else. But do not exclude her from superfecta's and other plays.
9.) Rose To Gold - She gains the mighty Borel on her! He will be a major factor for her, she could win this one. Funny thing is, she was only purchased for $1,300. I would love to see these connections win, I'm sure there already on cloud nine with this one. She will be one of the pace setters, but I like her post and I'm willing to use her too. Very classy filly here, who has been winning for fun in her last few starts.
10.) Flashy Gray - This filly is a mystery. She has been 2nd in her last few starts, for a very long time. It seems like she just can't get there. She has a fantastic trainer, that could be maybe training her for a win in the Oaks, but I think she needs time to develop and mature to become a Gr. 1 winner against this field. She should finish no worse then 7th.
11.) Close Hatches - This horse could be interesting. She did beat my favorite Princess of Sylmar in the Gazelle, but the race was set up perfect for Close Hatches. I could see her winning it too, she should be no worse then 5th.
* This years Kentucky Oaks is unbelievably tough, and I'm sorry if It sounds like Im having a hard time choosing my super-fecta. This race gives you a headache looking at it. Any filly besides Pure Fun, Silsta, Seaneen Girl and Flashy Gray will most likely not have any chance.
* I will be playing many trifectas/superfectas/exactas with .10, .50, and $1.00 ranges. So, below I list a few of my predictions.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Princess Of Sylmar/DreamingofJulia/Beholder/RoseToGold
Princess Of Sylmar/ DreaminofJulia/UnlimtedBudget/RoseToGold (or midnightlucky)
Dreaming Of Julia/Unlimted Budget/MidnightLucky/ Princess Of Sylmar
6.) Princess of Sylmar - Here's my girl! This one I will most likely be playing to win. She will be at a price of over 20-1 on Oaks day. She was undefeated, until Close Hatches beat her in the Gazelle. Thing is though, that I will throw out the Gazelle, because Close Hatches had the race her way, with the perfect pace for Close Hatches. When all these fillies will be going for the lead and tiring them selves out, watch for this girl to be picking them up late. She a very talented filly, but her last start will make you think she's not. So, don't be fooled by it. I know the Oaks, is one of the toughest fields assembled in over a decade, and she will really have to show her stuff on Friday, but with that price and quality....I'm willing to play her. You don't have to jump on her bandwagon with me, because I under stand that other fillies in here look better, but this one will pay the big bucks.
7.) Pure Fun - This is the biggest long shot in the field. She has showed a poor record in her 3 year old career. Don't expect much from this one, so wont be waiting time writing about her.
8.) Dreaming of Julia - Now here's your powerhouse horse! If this filly was in the Derby, I'd most likely be playing her, mainly because she would love the distance. Julia, was one of the best 2 year old's last year, so she has the foundation, and in her first start this year she was a close 2nd. I would like to ask a lot of questions of to why she ran 2nd, but it may be because the horse who finished 1st also had the lead all by herself, so could do whatever she wanted. But, Julia came back to win the Florida Oaks by over 20 lengths in a hand ride. It wasn't the toughest field, but I think shes coming into her own now. Don't be shocked if this one wins. She will be your favorite at a short price, so if your like me, maybe go somewhere else. But do not exclude her from superfecta's and other plays.
9.) Rose To Gold - She gains the mighty Borel on her! He will be a major factor for her, she could win this one. Funny thing is, she was only purchased for $1,300. I would love to see these connections win, I'm sure there already on cloud nine with this one. She will be one of the pace setters, but I like her post and I'm willing to use her too. Very classy filly here, who has been winning for fun in her last few starts.
10.) Flashy Gray - This filly is a mystery. She has been 2nd in her last few starts, for a very long time. It seems like she just can't get there. She has a fantastic trainer, that could be maybe training her for a win in the Oaks, but I think she needs time to develop and mature to become a Gr. 1 winner against this field. She should finish no worse then 7th.
11.) Close Hatches - This horse could be interesting. She did beat my favorite Princess of Sylmar in the Gazelle, but the race was set up perfect for Close Hatches. I could see her winning it too, she should be no worse then 5th.
* This years Kentucky Oaks is unbelievably tough, and I'm sorry if It sounds like Im having a hard time choosing my super-fecta. This race gives you a headache looking at it. Any filly besides Pure Fun, Silsta, Seaneen Girl and Flashy Gray will most likely not have any chance.
* I will be playing many trifectas/superfectas/exactas with .10, .50, and $1.00 ranges. So, below I list a few of my predictions.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Princess Of Sylmar/DreamingofJulia/Beholder/RoseToGold
Princess Of Sylmar/ DreaminofJulia/UnlimtedBudget/RoseToGold (or midnightlucky)
Dreaming Of Julia/Unlimted Budget/MidnightLucky/ Princess Of Sylmar
Kentucky Derby Profiles 4 of 4
Kentucky Derby Profiles
Oxbow - This horse will be ridden by the famous, Gary Stevens. In Oxbow's last start he did horrible. But, Gary said he tried something new with him, and it showed that he did not like it one bit. This horse needs to be left alone, and to do his own thing. In the previous start before that, he was in a tight dual with his stablemate, Will Take Charge, barely getting defeated. He is also a mystery, and hasn't been able to show what he can really do. This horse needs a break, and I may use him. He's been rearing to go. Plus, with a great trainer and jockey, he could be right up there. This horse will do no worse then 10th.
Falling Sky - I'm really not going to talk about this horse a lot. Probably one of the worst derby horses in the field. He will defiantly not like the distance and will fall back very fast. Look for him to get almost last.
Charming Kitten - This is your 3rd place finisher in the Bluegrass Stakes. He should handle the distance, but has been shown that hes more of a turf/synthetic horse. His sire has sired ok dirt horse, but this one is a turf star. This horse will finish mid pack, only because he will have a late click (not as good as others) and will out finish the tiring horses who are not bred for the Derby.
Golden Soul - This horse can also be tossed out. This horse can handle the distance, but his pedigree suggest that turf is more suited for him. If I were you, I wouldn't play him.
Giant Finish - This is a late entry into the Kentucky Derby. This horse like a few others, have no shot, and were just thrown into here. Every horse owner dreams of being in the Derby, so when they get the chance, they will jump all over it . I will not say much about him, he should be a toss. Ky Derby Insight
Kevin Roepke (@Maizstro) tweeted at 9:55 AM on Fri, May 03, 2013: W: REVOLUTIONARY (Calvin Borel--need I say more) P: VERRAZANO (Token "I like the name" pick) S: ORB (rarely does the favorite win)
Input Costs
Iowa Corn (@iowa_corn) tweeted at 8:22 AM on Fri, May 03, 2013: IFBF Spokesman:IA farmers invest $7.1 billion for corn and $2.6 billion for soybeans (no real estate costs) just to plant a crop each yr
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Kentucky Oaks Profile 1 of 2
(In Order of Post Position)
1.) Silsita - She gets Gary Stevens aboard her, which will help her out a bit. I dont like her post position though, you never really like the 1 hole. She has not run in 6 weeks, and her last out was a win over the synthetic course. I will not be using her.
2.) Midnight Lucky - Only two lifetime starts, but undefeated This one raises a lot of questions. Her lack of experience may be what gets her. She may be a freak and no one knew it till now, because of her lack of races. I would of also liked to see her get a better post position, but its better then the 1 hole. She totally dominated her rivals in the Sunland Oaks, but it was a weak field, and that's where another question comes up. I probably will use her, but 3rd at best.
3.) Beholder - This filly is probably one of the fastest ones in the race. The bad thing is, that a lot of these fillies will be wanting the lead, this causing them to tire out. This then sets the race up better for horses who are closer's or that sit in mid pack. She won the Breeders Cup Juvenile, then a bad 3rd place finish, and then has come back in her last 2 races, winning impressively. She will be a short price, but I'll use her, but not to win.
4.) Unlimited Budget - This filly is undefeated in 4 life time starts. In those races, she has beaten some impressive fillies too. She will be most likely 3rd favorite in the morning, and could be valuable to use. Tough, hard knocking filly, that I will be using for sure.
5.)Seaneen Girl - This one is known to like the Churchill surface as a 2 year old, but her 3 year old form is not the same. There's a reason why this one is the long-shot, so please dont use her, if you want to earn some cash. Shes a nice filly, but look for her to only win Gr. 3's, and 2's at the most. This is Gr. 1 race where the big fillies come out to run, and shes going to be outclassed here.
1.) Silsita - She gets Gary Stevens aboard her, which will help her out a bit. I dont like her post position though, you never really like the 1 hole. She has not run in 6 weeks, and her last out was a win over the synthetic course. I will not be using her.
2.) Midnight Lucky - Only two lifetime starts, but undefeated This one raises a lot of questions. Her lack of experience may be what gets her. She may be a freak and no one knew it till now, because of her lack of races. I would of also liked to see her get a better post position, but its better then the 1 hole. She totally dominated her rivals in the Sunland Oaks, but it was a weak field, and that's where another question comes up. I probably will use her, but 3rd at best.
3.) Beholder - This filly is probably one of the fastest ones in the race. The bad thing is, that a lot of these fillies will be wanting the lead, this causing them to tire out. This then sets the race up better for horses who are closer's or that sit in mid pack. She won the Breeders Cup Juvenile, then a bad 3rd place finish, and then has come back in her last 2 races, winning impressively. She will be a short price, but I'll use her, but not to win.
4.) Unlimited Budget - This filly is undefeated in 4 life time starts. In those races, she has beaten some impressive fillies too. She will be most likely 3rd favorite in the morning, and could be valuable to use. Tough, hard knocking filly, that I will be using for sure.
5.)Seaneen Girl - This one is known to like the Churchill surface as a 2 year old, but her 3 year old form is not the same. There's a reason why this one is the long-shot, so please dont use her, if you want to earn some cash. Shes a nice filly, but look for her to only win Gr. 3's, and 2's at the most. This is Gr. 1 race where the big fillies come out to run, and shes going to be outclassed here.
SOLD: High Dollar Bull Calf
Steve Ory Monopoly Bull High Seller
Monopoly x Ory Donor 25
Extra Stout Bull Calf
Raised By Steve Ory – Earlham, Iowa
Owned By Matt Lautner Cattle, Lautner Farms
Sold For $50,000
Extra Stout Bull Calf
Raised By Steve Ory – Earlham, Iowa
Owned By Matt Lautner Cattle, Lautner Farms
Sold For $50,000
Iowa's Best Burger Award
Iowa Cattlemen (@IAcattlemen) tweeted at 11:55 AM on Thu, May 02, 2013: #IowaBestBurger winner is 61 Chop House Grille in Mediapolis #beef Great ingredients. @blackcrown
Iowa Corn Basis
Grains Guru (@GrainsGuru) tweeted at 11:55 AM on Thu, May 02, 2013: N Central IA #corn basis on fire. Central IL and Gulf at record levels for May too
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Twitter- Kentucky Derby Fav's
Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) tweeted at 9:41 PM on Wed, May 01, 2013: We are seeing a lot of Twitter love for Normandy Invasion, Verrazano, Goldencents and Revolutionary. Who is your #KyDerby pick? #MyDerbyPick
Planting Time
Cory Ritter (@CoryRitter) tweeted at 3:14 PM on Wed, May 01, 2013: Nice to hear the voice of my land lord get excited when I told him we were starting to plant! Once a farmer, always a farmer! #plant13
NH3 Bottleneck
Caleb Hamer (@HawkeyeHamer) tweeted at 1:11 PM on Wed, May 01, 2013: Our fertilizer dealer has run out of nh3. Going out faster than the transports can bring it good thing rain is on the way, for them #plant13
Anyone Can Win
"I love all these people who say so many have NO chance to win the Derby ... They do know this is horse racing, right?"
-Some horses may have better chances, but in this race, anything can happen and will happen.
-Some horses may have better chances, but in this race, anything can happen and will happen.
Kentucky Derby Profiles 3 of 4
Kentucky Derby Profiles 3 of 4
Black Onyx - This horse won the Spiral Stakes. This horse has not run in 6 weeks and this may be a knock. This is about the same for Will Take Charge. Animal Kingdom won the Spiral, but this horse is not in the same class as Animal Kingdom. Maybe, I could be wrong, but I doubt it. This horse could be something special though, later in the year. He can win on dirt, turf and synthetic. He has pedigree that can handle the distance, but in his 5 lifetime starts, he has only faced Gr. 3 competition. He will be running with the big dogs Saturday, and he will need to step up to win. Mid-pack finisher the best, unless the track is off.
Palice Malice - I actually really do like this horse, but I'm having a hard time using him. He has been pushed hard to get to the Derby, and I'm thinking that its going to be to much. He first ran in the Louisiana Derby, but had the worst trip on the planet, then raced 2 weeks later in the Bluegrass, finishing a good 2nd on a surface that he wouldn't prefer. Then 3 weeks he runs in the Derby. That's a lot of running for horse. I love his pedigree, he has distance written all over him. Three starts in 5 weeks, against the best competition is hard for a horse to do. On the other hand, he may be coming into his own too. Hes going to be a good, live long shot, who's very tempting to play.
Normandy Invasion - Here we are! If I don't use Orb to win, then most likely 99% its going to be this guy. Everyone's going to be using him as their wise guy horse. He should be sitting in mid-pack with a great position to strike the front when it counts. He has been doing fabulous in the morning training sessions. He has such a huge turn of foot and explosiveness, making him a lock for me to finish in the money. The one question is, will he wait to long or get there to short? His pedigree says 1 1/4 may be stretching it, but this one has shown he can outrun his pedigree. He ran an amazing, fast 2nd place in the Wood, he was clearly the fastest horse in the race. In his previous start before that, he ran 3rd, only getting beat by 1 1/2 lengths...he had the worst trip of all horses though. This one will relish the extra distance, and long stretch drive at Churchill.
Frac Daddy - This horse has been known to like Churchill Downs, winning a stakes race there last fall.Plus he has been training pretty good over the surface. In the holly bull, he grabbed a quarter so toss that performance out, then in the FL Derby, he totally flopped. Didn't look good one bit. Then he comes back to the Arkansas Derby a few weeks later to finish 2nd. This horse raises so many questions, did he just not like the Gulfstream Park track? So, I'm going to say that If I were you I'd pass. There's just to many questions to be asked about him. I think most people would be surprised if he finished in the top 10.
My Lute - Here is another 'Normandy Invasion' kind of horse. He's defiantly my dark horse. He is improving with each race, which includes a solid, only 1/2 length loss to Revolutionary in the LA Derby. He is also out running his pedigree, so he should be fine at 1 1/4 distance. If not a derby winner, then a top Preakness contender. This horse I can guarantee you will finish in the top 5. Then again, we all know anything is possible. This one will hook up with the closers in the stretch, and run with them.Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Record Grinder Mixer Sale
Greg Peterson (@MachineryPete) tweeted at 4:29 PM on Tue, Apr 30, 2013: NH 358 grinder mixer sold for $15,500 on incredible farm auction Saturday in Saskatoon, SK...new record... http://t.co/VxbvZmGHxi
From Scott Hingtgen- Jackson County, IA
There are three types of farmers over here.
1:those who are planting full bore.
2:those were waiting until after this cold and wet weather goes through.
3: those of us who don't know what group to join.
Kentucky Oaks Morning Line
Churchill Downs PR (@DerbyMedia) tweeted at 10:21 AM on Tue, Apr 30, 2013: #KyOaks morning line 1/3 (from rail out) Silsita (20-1), Midnight Lucky (4-1), Beholder (7-2), Unlimited Budget (7-2), Seaneen Girl (20-1)
Part 2 of 4 Derby Profiles
Overanalyze - Dixie Union-Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Todd Pletcher - Your Arkansas Derby winner, which not to many people would've guess him winning. He has a pattern going, win/lose/win/lose/win/lose/win/? He won the Arkansas Derby very easily, but the time was the slowest in 30 some years. I can not see him winning, but he has one of the top jockeys Rafael Bejarano said after the Ark. Derby he left something for the Derby. He does have a very good 2 year old form winning the Futurity and Remsen Gr. 2’s, but he has not shown me enough yet to say that he will win the Kentucky Derby. 
Revolutionary (War Pass-Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Todd Pletcher – He picks up the famous Calvin Borel! This same combination (Calvin-Todd-WinStar Farm) won the 2010 Kentucky Derby. This horse is the total package, he can overcome troubles and still win. He has the pedigree to stretch out to the 1 1/4 distance. I have a hard time picking between him and a couple others, but he will be a short price, and if you want to make more money, maybe look somewhere else. But, you should definitely include him in your superfecta. He’s undefeated in 2013, winning the Withers Stakes and the Louisiana Derby. He is a major player and a lot of people will be using him!
Vyjack - This horse was a 3rd place finish last outing to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion in the Wood Memorial. Unfortunately, he had a lung infection during the race, that was unknown till after the race. That may be the cause of his poor performance. He was undefeated until that race. If I had to pick between the top 3 finishers that day at the Wood Memorial, I would still pick Normandy Invasion over Verrazano and Vyjack, but Vyjack would be 2nd. He has had time to recover from the infection and seems to be healthy now, but thing is, you want a perfectly healthy horse heading into the derby. He may be 99% healthy, but you want the whole 100%. He’s a late closer, so expect him to start rallying late and pick off the tired horses. This is a good horse to include in your superfecta. I will not be playing him to win, but maybe for 3rd or 4th. He has the quality to win, but he may not be all the way healthy yet and I think there are a couple of other horses that I will be using for the win. He is definitely one of the most interesting horses in the field and is one of my two ‘wise guy’ horses.
Will Take Charge - I also find this horse asking me a lot of questions. Part of me does not like him, and a little bit of me wants to use him for 4th at the best. In the end though, I will most likely not use him. Hes a half brother to last year's Derby contender, Take Charge Indy, who finished 19th, but then found out he was injured during the race. I find that this horse may have some distance limitations. He has been away for over 7 weeks, after an aggressive campaign from October to March. He did win his last race, the Rebel, but that race has not come up as a strong prep race. If I were most of you, I’d probably toss him. He will finish in mid-pack. Beautiful looking horse though!
Itsmyluckyday - I actually really like this horse. Some people may say the distance may be an issue, and I can see that part. But, part of me wants to overlook that. I think with the expected Derby pace and contenders, he will not mind the 1 ¼ distance. On other days, I see him a strong Preakness contender. I plan to make a few superfecta and other bets, and he will be on some of them...again depending on post positions. Everyone thought this horse was untouchable at Gulfstream Park, and everyone had him winning the Florida Derby. He had a 2 month layoff before finishing an ‘ok’ 2nd to Orb. I wonder about his 2nd place finish, and thats whats holding me back on using him more. They say he has been training stronger, than he did for the Florida Derby, but I see a mid pack finish for him.Monday, April 29, 2013
In the Field
Mark Kaiser (@markgskaiser) tweeted at 6:40 PM on Mon, Apr 29, 2013: Got to see many planters rolling today. A lot of Legend Seeds products hitting the dirt. Plots tomorrow if weather holds. 2+ inches = yields
Corn Planting Progress Graph
Kevin Roepke (@Maizstro) tweeted at 3:06 PM on Mon, Apr 29, 2013: Graph showing #corn planting progress vs. previous 6 years (& average). Currently at 5%.
Corn Planting Progress
Meghan Pedersen (@MeghanPedersen) tweeted at 3:02 PM on Mon, Apr 29, 2013: #Corn plantings at 5% complete compare to 31% complete on this date for the 5-year average and 49% last year. #pfnews
Corn Limit Up
Darin Newsom (@DarinNewsom) tweeted at 1:10 PM on Mon, Apr 29, 2013: I know there's talk that rains pushed corn limit up, but keep in mind it's old-crop up 40cts, not new-crop. Surely Watson smarter than that.
From Mike Foland- Blackhawk County, IA
Good thing the crops weren't in, this lasted 5-7 minutes in Cedar Falls.
Kentucky Derby Profiles 1 of 5
#Ky Derby Coverage by
Jordyn Burco
KENTUCKY DERBY PROFILE’S
Orb - (Malibu Moon-Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Shug McGaughey - Depending on post positions, this may be my derby horse. He has showed nothing, but brilliance since maturing from his 2 year old career. He showed brilliance in winning his first allowance race as a 3 year old, then the Gr. 2 Fountain Of Youth, and then the Gr. 1 Florida Derby. The only thing that puzzles me about him, is the Florida derby time was slower than the Florida Oaks that day. He didn't control the pace, so its not all his fault, but otherwise everything else looks like an A+ horse to me. I predict that, if this horse doesn't win the Derby, he will win the Belmont if entered. He has the pedigree to win the Derby and Belmont. He has a top leading jockey on him, and a famous trainer who’s been very successful and great with his horses, but still looking for his first derby win. He trained the famous Easy Goer. Another nice thing to look at this horse is, he won the Florida Derby easily, when he didn't need too. He had enough points to get into the derby, so he wasn’t cranked up, like 2nd place finisher, Itsmyluckyday who is a Gulfstream Park specialist. Orb can also close or sit in mid pack and wire it. There’s no doubt, that he will place in the top 4. If I had to pick connections/trainer to win the derby, it would be these guy’s! They have quite the story behind them. So, I do believe this guy has the stuff to win. I definitely will be using him 1-3.
Verrazano - (More Than Ready-Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Todd Pletcher is the trainer. This horse was at the top of many’s list, leading up to the Wood Memorial. He still won the Wood, but it wasn’t as great of a race, as I’d like to see. He’s still a very talented, unbeaten horse, but he lacks the experience. He is 4 for 4, but never ran as a 2 year old. He won 2 allowance races this winter at Gulfstream Park, before traveling up to northern Florida to win the Tampa Bay Derby, then traveling to New York for the Wood Memorial. Yes, he has done everything thats been asked and thrown at him, and has a nice running style and the best jockey/trainer with him. So, what's wrong? I see that 10 furlongs will most likely not be up his alley. He could show me wrong, and I promise right now, that I wouldn't be surprised if he won, because he really makes me ask a lot of questions. I think he has enough class, but there will be a few other horses that will relish the distance more than him. I also haven’t seen the progression that I’d like to see in him. He looked like he was untouchable in his first three starts, but it looks like now the others have caught up to him. He’s going to be the favorite, but I wouldn’t bet him for the win. At the most, he may be in my superfecta, but not quite sure even on that yet. I will know more after Wednesday. I do give him the 1st place award for most beautiful horse though!
Lines Of Battle - ( War Front-Black Spech ) Aidan O’ Brien is the trainer. I really dont have a whole lot to say about this guy. He’s your foreign horse, who won the UAE Derby, over in Dubai in March. He does have pedigree that suggest that he likes dirt (UAE Derby is on tapeta) and his pedigree is borderline. The problem is, there have never been to many foreign horses who have finished in the top 10. I suspect him to place towards the back. He’s a nice tapeta/synthetic surface horse, but I think the whole horse racing world would be shocked if he wins, or even gets 2nd.
Goldencents (Into Mischief-Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Doug O'Neill – Can this one also 'Win one for Ware' just like Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals did? This horse is partly owned by Rick Pitino. This horse will definitely be one of the favorites, only because he has a famous owner. This horse has a similar story like I’ll Have Another’s last year. He was a nice 2 year old, trained by O’ Niel (same trainer who trained I’ll Have Another), has a new jockey, and won the Santa Anita Derby too. This horse will bring a lot more people to the Derby, only because of his story. His Santa Anita Derby wasn’t as impressive as like last year's running of it. This horse will most likely have distance problems. I can’t see him winning the Derby. Nice horse, but not enough class. The only way I see him hitting the board is if some horses like code west dont enter, then I may be using him in some of my superfectas. It would be another nice story though, if he did win. 
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