"You can't win if you don't beat the team you're playing"
Friday, September 20, 2013
Harvest Low for Corn? $4.25 Possible
By: Fran Howard
Look for December corn futures to dip in the next 30 days.
This year’s wet spring kept producers off more acres than originally anticipated, but early indications are that yield and quality are coming in better than expected on corn. Prevented plantings were higher than expected for both corn and soybeans, according to recently released numbers from USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA).
The 2013 prevented plantings for corn of 3.57 million acres were up from August’s estimated 3.41 million acres. The numbers are based on reports from producers who participate in FSA crop subsidy programs and who are required to submit an annual report regarding the use of all cropland on their operations.
Chat Hart, agricultural economist with the University of Iowa, estimates that between 95% and 96% of producers participate in FSA programs.
This year’s prevented soybean plantings of 1.69 million acres were up from August’s 1.62 million acres, according to FSA.
Producers enrolled in the subsidy programs also reported overall planted acreage, including failed acres, of 91.43 million acres of corn, up from August’s 88.77 million acres, and 74.66 million acres of soybeans, up from 72.06 million in August.
USDA could reduce final planted area for corn by 2 million acres or so, says Hart. "But we are still taking about a record corn crop in the mid-13-billion-bushel range," he says.
Ryan Turner, risk management consultant with INTL FCStone, Kansas City, expects USDA to cut harvested acreage by 1 million to 1.5 million acres when it releases its next World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on October 11.
The October WASDE report will also reflect the full impact of the FSA numbers, notes Hart. While both acreage and yield play into the overall production numbers, the big question in the October report will be corn yield.
"Will yield slide? Will 162 bu. per acre come to pass in Iowa? I’m seeing a lot of variability," says Hart. "Some producers who have already harvested in central and southeastern Iowa are seeing 160- to 210-bu. yields, and test weights are decent. So far what’s come in has looked good."
Early indications across the Corn Belt are that test weights are better than expected, which will make this year’s crop easier to store, as long as lower-quality corn is not blended with higher-quality product.
"I’m hearing yield and quality are really good," says Turner. "I think prices could drift lower, take out the lows, and make new lows." Turner expects December corn futures to dip to near $4.25 per bu. sometime in the next 30 days.
When historical corn prices are used in a scatter plot along with an expected 1.8-billion-bushel carryout, it shows corn prices could fall to $3.30 per bu. "But that’s not going to happen," says Turner. "We are in a different demand environment today."
Late Federal Reserve news sent stocks and commodities higher
Fed news boosted the commodity markets Wednesday afternoon. Strength spilling over from the soybean pit offered support for corn futures, but the onset of the southern Corn Belt harvest appeared to undercut prices earlier in the day. However, afternoon news that the Federal Reserve will not taper its bond buying to support the economy sent the markets higher. Concurrent U.S. dollar weakness also boosted commodities. December corn closed 2.25 cents higher at $4.5675/bushel Wednesday afternoon, and May rose 2.25 cents to $4.77.
Soybeans rebounded from Tuesday losses in Wednesday action. Soybean traders were greeted with news of a big U.S. soybean sale to China and another sizeable sale to an unknown buyer Wednesday morning, which powered a general advance. The gains were later exaggerated by the Fed news. November soybeans rallied 5.25 cents to $13.4775/bushel in late Wednesday trading, while October soyoil jumped 0.47 cents to 42.47 cents/pound, but October soymeal sagged $1.8 to $427.0/ton.
Wheat futures apparently rose in concert with the commodity sector Wednesday. The reasons behind early wheat strength weren’t obvious, but soybean strength probably played a significant role in the rise. Thus, it wasn’t terribly surprising to see wheat quotes rise along with the other commodities when the Fed announced that it would not reduce its bond buying program in the near future. December CBOT wheat gained 3.5 cents to $6.465/bushel at its Wednesday settlement, while December KCBT wheat lifted 2.25 cents to $6.925, and December MGE futures edged up 0.75 cent to $7.0025.
Cattle futures also closed strongly today. Although cattle and beef values traditionally tend to rally during late summer and fall, recent beef slippage had short-circuited rally attempts. That was also true in early Wednesday trading, but the afternoon Fed news and the subsequent commodity sector advance and U.S. dollar decline encouraged bullish traders. October cattle futures edged up 0.10 cents to 125.27 cents/pound late Wednesday afternoon, while December added 0.30 to 128.95. Meanwhile, October feeder cattle climbed 0.42 cents to 158.30 cents/pound, and January inched ran up 0.42 cents to 158.92.
Hog futures also posted a bullish reversal Wednesday. Hog and pork prices had recently disappointed CME hog traders, thereby undercutting futures in early trading. However, underlying cash and wholesale firmness, as well as the Fed news, pushed Chicago swine values significantly higher later in the day. October hog futures surged 0.75 cents to 91.72 cents/pound in late Wednesday action, while December lifted 0.42 cents to 87.95.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Droopy Ears | Low Test Weight | From Tim Harbaugh- Agrigold Seed
Droopy Ears
Premature Ear Declination
With the onset of the second year in a row of drought conditions, a somewhat 'common' sight has become drooping ears in corn fields sooner than expected. Normally ears stay erect until sometime after black layer or physiological maturity. Currently ears are found hanging long before their time which will lead to; premature maturity, decreased test weights from lack of grain fill time, and overall reductions in yield depending largely on when the drooping takes place.
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"Droopy" Ears
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1440.jpg]
"Droopy" kinked shank
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1443.jpg]
Cross section of "droopy" shank
The main causes of droopy ears for 2013 have been the combination of heat and drought stress. The two of these lead to an overall lack of water coming into the plant and within plant tissues. Without this moisture there develops a lack of turgidity (cell swollenness) which leads to a weakened shank that kinks over. Another cause that seems to be abundant this year in areas of extreme rain early in the season are root rots caused by fusarium which affects the crown.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1442.jpg]
Root/crown rot
As ears fill the final pipeline to get photosynthates into the ear is the shank, once this kinks over grain fill is essentially done. How much yield loss then depends on what stage the kernel is at and how many plants on average are drooping. If the ears are at full dent with a milk line barely visible then losses up to about 41% could be seen, whereas ears at ½ milk line would be expected to lose roughly 12%. So for example if a field had 25% of its ears drooping at ½ milk line then losses of 3% are not out of the question (12% yield loss x 25% of the field).
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2013 Projected Corn Yield Compared to Trend Yields
2013 Projected Corn Yield Compared to Trend Yields
September 16, 2013
By: University News Release
Comparing these two yield numbers helps to assess which areas of the country are having better relative yields than other areas.
By Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
On Sept. 12, USDA released revised projections of 2013 state corn yields. Also released were 2013 projected crop reporting district (CRD) yields for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Texas. These projected yields are compared to 2013 trend yields to assess which areas of the country are having better relative yields than other areas.
State Projections
Figure 1 shows projected state yields divided by trend yields, hereafter referred to as relative yields. Illinois' relative yield is 1.00. This means that the USDA's projected yield of 165 bushels per acre equals the trend yield of 165 bushels per acre. The 2013 trend yields were calculated by fitting a trend line through state level yield data from 1975 through 2012, and then projecting a 2013 yield. Relative yields above 1.0 indicate that yields are above trend. Relative yields below 1.0 indicate that the projected yield is below trend. Overall, higher values indicate better yields relative to expectations.
(Click to view larger image)
The highest values occur in a stretch of states beginning along the eastern seaboard from Pennsylvania through Alabama. From these highs, relative yields decrease toward the center of the Corn Belt. Ohio and Indiana's 2013 yields are projected above trend. Illinois 2013 yield is at trend. Iowa and Minnesota's yields are below trends. In the western Corn Belt, several states have near or above trend yield: South Dakota's relative yield is 1.07 and Nebraska's yield is .99. The lowest relative yields occur in Oklahoma (.86) and North Dakota (.87).
CRD Projections
A more refined view of relative yields can be gained for the six states for which CRD yields were released by USDA. Relative CRD yields less than .85 occur in southern Texas, central and eastern Kansas, and southwest Missouri. Relative CRD yields above 1.15 occur in southern Texas.
Within the Corn Belt, higher relative yields occur in the eastern Corn Belt and lower yields in the western Corn Belt. Relative yields above 1.15 occur in Indiana, southern Illinois, and southeast Missouri. Northern and central Illinois, northern Missouri, and southeast Iowa are projected to have yields near trend. Northern and western Iowa are projected to have yields below trend.
Summary
Within the Corn Belt the highest yields relative to trend occur in the eastern Corn Belt. Yields become lower moving west through Iowa. Lower yields in the western Corn Belt will push down national yields from levels that could have occurred had the entire Corn Belt had yields at or above trend.
Prevent Plant Update
Brian Grete (@BGrete) tweeted at 5:32 AM on Tue, Sep 17, 2013: FSA acreage data: PP corn @ 3.573 mil ac. vs 3.411 mil. ac. in Aug. PP beans @ 1.687 mil. ac. vs. 1.619 mil. ac. in Aug.
Sunday, September 15, 2013
National Cattle Congress | Reserve Grand Champion Heifer
Shown by Luke Lawless, Independence, IA
Raised & sold by Pete Burmeister
Sired by Monopoly
Congtats Luke & TJ on another big win and great year!!
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