Friday, September 16, 2011

Corn Price Bubble?

Spread the Word!

From Van Trump Daily Report

Land Update - One of our good clients from up in Iowa called in and said he went to a land auction yesterday in Sac County.  The farm ended up bringing $11,000 per acre, and was purchased by an investor out of Minnesota.  Supposedly he already has it rented out at $600 per acre...WOW! Just FYI, land values in Iowa during the last twelve months are said to be up over 32%.  

Thursday, September 15, 2011

As seen on Jon Blin's Facebook Page


Jon Blin
I have always been a very proud citizen of my little Northeastern Iowa town but never have I been prouder then right now!

As seen on Landon Kane's Facebook Page

  • Fun ISU fact for the day- Kirk Ferentz has a losing record against ISU being 6-7.
  • Land Rents...Close to Home

    East Central Iowa - I wanted to give you a quick update on land rent in my area (30 miles North of Cedar Rapids).  On the low end we are seeing $250 per acre and on the high end close to $300.  There's been some talk about 2012 rent pushing up close to $350-$400.  Fortunately we are with landlords that gradually raise rent rather than price hikes of $100+ per acre.  I know most already realize this but $400/acre rent is over 60 bushels/acre at $6.50 corn, really doesn't leave room for error.  My son will make our operation a 6th generation farm, with some of our ground bought and still farmed for $1/acre.  Thanks 

    As seen on the Kevin Van Trump Report

    As Seen on the Kevin Van Trump Report

    Sure we might pick up another $0.50 to $0.75 cents on fund repositioning or some other market variables.  But if your waiting on a move to $8.50 or higher by year end you are essentially making a bet on one of three horses that are left in the 2011 Corn Derby:

    Horse #1- I will call her "Philly Freeze" - This horse is a winner if temps drop below 28F for any extended period of time during the next three or four weeks.  She is not a come form behind winner, as the longer she waits to make her move in the race, the lower the payout. She needs to make her move early if she is going to pay off. One thing the crowd likes is that when she comes in she generally pays off in a big way, and her jockey is the best in the business (tough to get any better than the big man upstairs).

     
    Horse #2 - I will call her "Wild Acres" - She is a real beauty, young with very few races under her belt, but she has HUGE potential. If she gets the right start, has the right jockey, and is on a muddy track she could pay off big. Essentially by betting on "Wild Acres" you are thinking the USDA will cut harvested corn acres substantially. For a big pay-off you need a cut of 750,000 plus. With the FSA and USDA riding this youngster anything is possible, they may decide to let her run, or for the betterment of the sport pull her back and shut her down, you just never know.  Definitely untested in the big races. 

    Horse #3 - I will call her "Official Ruling" - I have seen this horse run many times through the years, she can often be a crowd favorite early in the race, but in the end very rarely makes it into the winners circle. She is generally the most hyped in the field, but more times than not fails to deliver the big pay-outs.  Some in the racing world even go as far as saying she is on the "take." I wouldn't go that far, I just think the crowd often places the expectations much too high for her to deliver. For this old girl to pay off big you will need to see the yields continue to fall.  I would be inclined to guess the closer we get to 140 bushels per acre the larger the pay-out and the better her chances.  Just remember there is no rhyme or reason to how this horse will run, I have seen the jockey take her out out of the gates strong only to see her ease back later in the race. I have also seen her pour it on down the stretch.  This horse can make you extremely happy and extremely sad all in the same race, so be prepared for anything.  Once again a lot depends on the jockey and the conditions of the track. Just don't count your chickens before they are hatched with this girl still in the race.


    In my opinion these are the only three horses left in the 2011 Corn Derby at this juncture.  China buying corn in any big quantity is out of the race; both of the South American horses are out of the race, as they are planting more corn acres and raising their exports as we speak; Russia and Ukraine are out of the race as well on larger than expected supplies; Canada is a scratch, with no real losses to speak of; Ethanol Production and Domestic Feed Usage didn't feel they had enough growth left in the tank to compete and are no real threat to win the race, so they pulled out as well

    TOP 2011 COUNTY AVERAGE CASH RENTS

    (Source: NASS/USDA surveys)
    1. Macon, IL $260
    2. Sangamon, IL $252
    3. Logan, IL $246
    4. Macon, IL $242
    5. Piatt, IL $241
    6. Christian, IL $237
    7. Hamilton, IA $235
    8. Grundy, IA $234
    9. McLean, IL $233
    10. Champaign, IL $233
    11. Moultrie, IL $233
    12. Logan, IL $232
    13. DeWitt, IL $226
    14. Carroll, IA $226
    15. Webster, IA $225
    16. Warren, IL $224
    17. Cedar, IA $224
    18. Douglas, IL $221
    19. Cass, IL $221
    20. Story, IA $221
    21. Cherokee, IA $220
    22. Franklin, IA $217
    23. Humboldt, IA $217
    24. DeKalb, IL $216
    25. Whiteside, IL $216

    Paying Wages by the Bushel

    Coffee Shop Humor

    Wednesday, September 14, 2011

    From Larry Klever- Winthrop, IA

    Hand shelled some 102-day Pioneer today, 19.8 moisture & 55.9 test weight

    Harvest Underway!

    Near Quaksy!... From Brett Vogel

    Extreme Makeover: Home Edition

    Cedar Falls, Iowa - ABC's Emmy-winning hit show Extreme Makeover: Home Edition has selected a Northeast Iowa family to feature on its award-winning show that changes the lives of families and inspires remarkable community support. Each week, the show travels across the country building a new home for a deserving family.

    Larson Construction Co., Inc., of Independence, Iowa, has been selected as the builder for the project. Larson Construction Co., Inc. is a family-owned business that has been in the construction industry since the 1960's and encompasses both general contracting for commercial and industrial buildings and project management.

    Struxture Architects has been selected as the architect for the project. Located in Waterloo and West Des Moines, Struxture has designed commercial, educational and civic projects throughout Iowa and the Midwest since 1934.

    While Larson is the main builder and a major contributor to the project, the project relies on volunteers and Northeast Iowa residents to join. A pep rally will be held on Tuesday, September 20, at the University of Northern Iowa's McLeod Center to kick off the volunteer effort that will help accomplish this amazing feat for a deserving family.

    Doors will open at 5:30 p.m. and the event will begin at 6 p.m. Parking and admission are free, but participants are encouraged to bring a nonperishable food item, which will be donated to the Northeast Iowa Food Bank.

    The pep rally will be hosted by Gary Kroeger, formerly of Saturday Night Live and currently Creative Director at the Mudd Group, he'll be joined by several members of the Extreme Makeover: Home Edition production team who will talk about the show and give information on how people can help.

    The event will also feature the Independence High School Marching Band, UNI cheerleaders and singer Elea Uhl, of Decorah.

    The exact town and family details will not be released until after the door knock on Sunday, October 2, where Ty Pennington, team leader of the show, and his design team, will show up on the selected Northeast Iowa family's doorstep.

    Larson Construction is inviting volunteers to provide their time, support and resources to help ensure the success of this life-altering project. Interested individuals or companies can find more information on how to volunteer time and/or resources at http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=d4m5dxdab&et=1107627740224&s=708&e=001MJcDHalvtytIOPts3VpZ0hoAydR2f3-u6QZg9xDc9Bp572BMN4lQ1TBTuaJ4fzBXVLPtSxp0sF3gyE7BEc948bnbJxdPuTG6LCu8C3k2jCYOc6GMvMFT95_lkX2iBYY3.

    There will also be a food drive for the Northeast Iowa Food Bank, which will be set up collecting canned or packaged food donations at the makeover site.

    "We are thrilled that Extreme Makeover: Home Edition has selected a Northeast Iowa family for their next makeover and we are excited to not only make a difference in the lives of a deserving family, but to also play a part in inspiring our entire area for a great cause," said Ed Larson, President of Larson Construction.

    For more information on volunteering visit http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=d4m5dxdab&et=1107627740224&s=708&e=001MJcDHalvtytIOPts3VpZ0hoAydR2f3-u6QZg9xDc9Bp572BMN4lQ1TBTuaJ4fzBXVLPtSxp0sF3gyE7BEc948bnbJxdPuTG6LCu8C3k2jCYOc6GMvMFT95_lkX2iBYY3. To make a monetary donation toward the Family/Build Fund, make checks to Family/Build Fund, c/o BankIowa, PO Box 229, Independence, Iowa 50644

    As seen in Independence Area Chamber of Commerce email blast

    From Bryan Bayness- Fairbank, IA

    Hand shelled pioneer 99 day corn. 3 test average was 23.9 moisture. 54 t.w.

    From Brandon Reis- Ames, IA

    Looking forward to 2012? Check this out!

    http://www.farmgateblog.com/article/1449/will-2012-crop-budgets-allow-you-to-earn-much-income#When:04:59:47Z

    Tuesday, September 13, 2011

    Combining beans near Jesup

    From Brett Vogel

    FROST

    Main threat through the short term will be widespread light frost in Minnesota that could extend into Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa. For corn, readings of 28°F for 4 or more hours is still likely to be isolated but for soybeans which are not as far along, readings of 28°F between 2 and 4 hours could cut soyoil yield. Current odds for significant damage sit at 35%. The frost threat may linger into Friday morning for Wisconsin and Michigan, but damage potential is minimal at this time.

    As seen on Farm Futures Daily Email Blast

    From Ben Donnelly- Urbana, IA

    FYI... Combines have started in Benton County on the corn!

    Monday, September 12, 2011

    IAS Seed Plot Day

    Contact Marcus Norman w/ Innovative Ag Services @ 319-939-0357 for a recap of the day or for information about their products and services!

    From Adam White, Pioneer Seed Specialist

    This is a customer's field in Buchanan County that I went up to see in a helicopter last Thursday.

    Goss' Wilt pretty well decimated the competitor and you can't even see any in the Pioneer product!



    Our Reply: Thanks for sharing Adam! We'll be getting you an actual yield comparison later this fall, so stay tuned!! Call Adam @ 319-325-1421 if you want to visit about Goss' Wilt.

    As seen on Marketwatchonline.com

    CORN: September Corn finished up 9 at 745 1/2, 3 off the high and 19 1/4 up from the low, the CME reported. March Corn closed up 9 1/4 at 758 1/2. This was 19 3/4 up from the low and 2 3/4 off the high.

    December corn moved from moderately lower on the day to close higher and near the highs as end-user demand was active on the early break. Talk of potential frost issues later this week, ideas that the USDA will lower planted area and maybe yield in the next monthly report and talk of a short-term oversold condition helped to pressure, the CME said.

    The USDA pegged production at 12.497 billion bushels from 12.914 billion last month. This was slightly above expectations. Average yield was pegged at 148.1 bushels per acre, compared with trade expectations at 148.8 and 153 last month. US ending stocks for 2011/12 season were begged at 672 million bushels from 714 million last month but this was up from expectations of 636 million. Beginning stocks were adjusted lower by 20 million bushels. Feed usage was slashed by 200 million bushels and ethanol usage down by 100 million from last month.

    Exports were also cut by 100 million bushels. In addition, the USDA announced a daily export sale if 114,300 tonnes of US corn to unknown destination. Weekly export inspections came in at just 16.5 million bushels which was well below trade expectations. Inspections need to average 33.7 million bushels per week to reach the USDA projection for the year. World ending stocks were adjusted higher to 117.39 million tonnes from 114.53 million last month and from 124.3 million tonnes last year. Weakness in the other grains and negative outside market forces helped to limit the advance, CME analysts said.

    Fuel Prices

    Gasoline prices at the pump will peak at $3.50 per gallon, on average, during next summer's driving season, vs. this year's high mark of $3.97 in May.

    Diesel... $3.80 in June and July, also well below the 2011 peak of $4.12

    As seen in The Kiplinger Letter

    USDA Report

    CROP PRODUCTION
    USDA trimmed its estimate of national average corn yield to 148.1 bushels per acre from the August estimate of 153 bpa. That's a slightly greater cut than the average trade estimate, at 148.8.
    The corn crop was pegged at 12.5 billion bushels from 84.4 million acres harvested, meeting trade expectations.
    Soybean yield was raised slightly, to 41.8 bushels an acre from 41.4 bpa. The crop was raised from 3.056 billion bushels to 3.085 billion bushels, with a harvested acreage figure of 73.8 million. This production figure was near the high end of the pre-report range and slightly above average trade expectations of 3.025 billion.

    As seen on DTN.com