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Thursday, October 3, 2013
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Combine Harvest Report 2013 | Caleb Hammer, Blackhawk County
Caleb Hamer (@HawkeyeHamer) tweeted at 8:35 AM on Wed, Oct 02, 2013: @newscoffeeshop first seed bean variety done, +/- 250 acres. 53bu/ac individual fields ranged 37-62. Planted May 16-18
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Combine Harvest Report 2013 | District 2
103 day, 2nd year corn, 12 ton fall feedlot manure 160 units spring NH3, 50 CSR ground looks good for first field out.
- Scott Cherne | Clayton County, IA
Wanted | Harvest Yield Reports
Text your harvest yield reports to 319-327-0806 and have them posted to the New & Improved News from the Coffee Shop!
Our Combine Harvest Report will be released tomorrow with the new site and updated throughout the Fall!
Gov't Shutdown Questions
Olivia Valentine (@muggle1190) tweeted at 6:55 AM on Tue, Oct 01, 2013: Can I drink raw milk and start a lemonade stand now?! #shutdownquestions
Monday, September 30, 2013
Pioneer T Series Feedback
Mark Kaiser (@markgskaiser) tweeted at 6:34 PM on Mon, Sep 30, 2013: "@newscoffeeshop: Soybean Yield Check | Pioneer T Series....... Shouldn't you call them Genuity RoundUp 2 Yield beans from the mighty......
Soybean Yield Check | Pioneer T Series
New Pioneer "T" Series soybeans P29T98R, yield check just north of Center Point 67.4 bushels at 12.9% moisture
Soybean Yield Data | From Adam White- Pioneer Seed Rowley, IA
Its that time again. Yield check data!! Pioneer 92Y51's south of Troy Mills. 68.6 bushels at 12.6 moisture. That'll work!!
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Cattle Market on Fire | Kansas
Clifton (@Buy_Mortimer) tweeted at 4:41 PM on Tue, Sep 24, 2013: 70 Hd 705 lb steers St. Marys Ks 169.75
Reply: That's over $1300 a head delivered to Iowa!! #cheapcorn
Monday, September 23, 2013
US Soy Area to Hit Record in 2014 as Corn Declines
| US soy area to hit record in 2014 as corn declines | |
| Corn sowings in the US will fall for the first time in six years in 2014, with farmers turning en masse to soybeans – for which plantings will hit a record high – leaving wheat seedings largely unchanged. Informa Economics - in its first forecasts for next year's US crops, which came as it revised estimates for the ongoing harvests - pegged corn plantings at 92.7m acres. While still a high figure by recent standards, exceeded only three times since World War II, that would represent a sharp fall year on year. The US Department of Agriculture pegs US corn sowings this year at 99.5m acres, although many observers believe that figure is too high, by at least 1m acres, after an unusually wet spring prompted many growers to abandon some fields. Soybean record The land freed up from corn will go in the main to soybeans, for which sowings will jump to a record 83.6m acres, the Informa data showed. That is 6.4m acres above the USDA's current estimate of US plantings this year. Wheat area will come in at 56.7m acres, all varieties included, compared with the official estimate of 56.5m acres for this year's crop, if still a low figure by historical standards. How accurate? Sowings forecasts made so far in advance are unlikely to be wholly accurate, depending in part on weather at the time – this year, for instance, wet weather was seen encouraging some US farmers to plant soybeans, which can be later seeded, rather than corn. However, some idea of likely allocations can be gauged from futures markets, and the relative prices of the different crops, although these are likely to change as the fate of South American crops to be harvested early in 2014 unwinds. In Chicago, the much-watched ratio on a 2014 basis for November soybeans, the first new crop contract, to December corn stood at 2.39:1 on Friday, well into the area typically seen as encouraging sowings of the oilseed over the grain. While traders use different tipping points, 2:1 and 2.25:1 are common ones. A year ago, Informa forecast 2013 corn plantings at 97.5m acres and soybean area at 79.9m acres, with wheat sowings pegged at 57.1m acres. Estimates for 2013 Informa's latest forecasts came as the analysis group lifted by 149m bushels to 13.889bn bushels its forecast for this year's US corn crop, a figure 46m tonnes above the USDA estimate. Informa used a harvested area of 88.1m acres, 1.0m acres below the official estimate, but a more optimistic yield of 157.6 bushels per acre. For soybeans, the production estimate was raised by 60m bushels to 3.224bn bushels, again reflecting a sub-USDA forecast for area, of 75.99m acres, but a higher yield figure, of 42.4 bushels per acre. The USDA sees the soybean harvest at 3.149bn bushels. | |
From Scott Hingtgen
Adam White' quote was very insightful. And very funny.
Here is another one farmers:
Hold for greed , sell for need !
A friend of mine had that one, maybe you heard it already!
Friday, September 20, 2013
Harvest Low for Corn? $4.25 Possible
By: Fran Howard
Look for December corn futures to dip in the next 30 days.
This year’s wet spring kept producers off more acres than originally anticipated, but early indications are that yield and quality are coming in better than expected on corn. Prevented plantings were higher than expected for both corn and soybeans, according to recently released numbers from USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA).
The 2013 prevented plantings for corn of 3.57 million acres were up from August’s estimated 3.41 million acres. The numbers are based on reports from producers who participate in FSA crop subsidy programs and who are required to submit an annual report regarding the use of all cropland on their operations.
Chat Hart, agricultural economist with the University of Iowa, estimates that between 95% and 96% of producers participate in FSA programs.
This year’s prevented soybean plantings of 1.69 million acres were up from August’s 1.62 million acres, according to FSA.
Producers enrolled in the subsidy programs also reported overall planted acreage, including failed acres, of 91.43 million acres of corn, up from August’s 88.77 million acres, and 74.66 million acres of soybeans, up from 72.06 million in August.
USDA could reduce final planted area for corn by 2 million acres or so, says Hart. "But we are still taking about a record corn crop in the mid-13-billion-bushel range," he says.
Ryan Turner, risk management consultant with INTL FCStone, Kansas City, expects USDA to cut harvested acreage by 1 million to 1.5 million acres when it releases its next World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on October 11.
The October WASDE report will also reflect the full impact of the FSA numbers, notes Hart. While both acreage and yield play into the overall production numbers, the big question in the October report will be corn yield.
"Will yield slide? Will 162 bu. per acre come to pass in Iowa? I’m seeing a lot of variability," says Hart. "Some producers who have already harvested in central and southeastern Iowa are seeing 160- to 210-bu. yields, and test weights are decent. So far what’s come in has looked good."
Early indications across the Corn Belt are that test weights are better than expected, which will make this year’s crop easier to store, as long as lower-quality corn is not blended with higher-quality product.
"I’m hearing yield and quality are really good," says Turner. "I think prices could drift lower, take out the lows, and make new lows." Turner expects December corn futures to dip to near $4.25 per bu. sometime in the next 30 days.
When historical corn prices are used in a scatter plot along with an expected 1.8-billion-bushel carryout, it shows corn prices could fall to $3.30 per bu. "But that’s not going to happen," says Turner. "We are in a different demand environment today."
Late Federal Reserve news sent stocks and commodities higher
Fed news boosted the commodity markets Wednesday afternoon. Strength spilling over from the soybean pit offered support for corn futures, but the onset of the southern Corn Belt harvest appeared to undercut prices earlier in the day. However, afternoon news that the Federal Reserve will not taper its bond buying to support the economy sent the markets higher. Concurrent U.S. dollar weakness also boosted commodities. December corn closed 2.25 cents higher at $4.5675/bushel Wednesday afternoon, and May rose 2.25 cents to $4.77.
Soybeans rebounded from Tuesday losses in Wednesday action. Soybean traders were greeted with news of a big U.S. soybean sale to China and another sizeable sale to an unknown buyer Wednesday morning, which powered a general advance. The gains were later exaggerated by the Fed news. November soybeans rallied 5.25 cents to $13.4775/bushel in late Wednesday trading, while October soyoil jumped 0.47 cents to 42.47 cents/pound, but October soymeal sagged $1.8 to $427.0/ton.
Wheat futures apparently rose in concert with the commodity sector Wednesday. The reasons behind early wheat strength weren’t obvious, but soybean strength probably played a significant role in the rise. Thus, it wasn’t terribly surprising to see wheat quotes rise along with the other commodities when the Fed announced that it would not reduce its bond buying program in the near future. December CBOT wheat gained 3.5 cents to $6.465/bushel at its Wednesday settlement, while December KCBT wheat lifted 2.25 cents to $6.925, and December MGE futures edged up 0.75 cent to $7.0025.
Cattle futures also closed strongly today. Although cattle and beef values traditionally tend to rally during late summer and fall, recent beef slippage had short-circuited rally attempts. That was also true in early Wednesday trading, but the afternoon Fed news and the subsequent commodity sector advance and U.S. dollar decline encouraged bullish traders. October cattle futures edged up 0.10 cents to 125.27 cents/pound late Wednesday afternoon, while December added 0.30 to 128.95. Meanwhile, October feeder cattle climbed 0.42 cents to 158.30 cents/pound, and January inched ran up 0.42 cents to 158.92.
Hog futures also posted a bullish reversal Wednesday. Hog and pork prices had recently disappointed CME hog traders, thereby undercutting futures in early trading. However, underlying cash and wholesale firmness, as well as the Fed news, pushed Chicago swine values significantly higher later in the day. October hog futures surged 0.75 cents to 91.72 cents/pound in late Wednesday action, while December lifted 0.42 cents to 87.95.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Droopy Ears | Low Test Weight | From Tim Harbaugh- Agrigold Seed
Droopy Ears
Premature Ear Declination
With the onset of the second year in a row of drought conditions, a somewhat 'common' sight has become drooping ears in corn fields sooner than expected. Normally ears stay erect until sometime after black layer or physiological maturity. Currently ears are found hanging long before their time which will lead to; premature maturity, decreased test weights from lack of grain fill time, and overall reductions in yield depending largely on when the drooping takes place.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1439.jpg]
"Droopy" Ears
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1440.jpg]
"Droopy" kinked shank
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1443.jpg]
Cross section of "droopy" shank
The main causes of droopy ears for 2013 have been the combination of heat and drought stress. The two of these lead to an overall lack of water coming into the plant and within plant tissues. Without this moisture there develops a lack of turgidity (cell swollenness) which leads to a weakened shank that kinks over. Another cause that seems to be abundant this year in areas of extreme rain early in the season are root rots caused by fusarium which affects the crown.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1442.jpg]
Root/crown rot
As ears fill the final pipeline to get photosynthates into the ear is the shank, once this kinks over grain fill is essentially done. How much yield loss then depends on what stage the kernel is at and how many plants on average are drooping. If the ears are at full dent with a milk line barely visible then losses up to about 41% could be seen, whereas ears at ½ milk line would be expected to lose roughly 12%. So for example if a field had 25% of its ears drooping at ½ milk line then losses of 3% are not out of the question (12% yield loss x 25% of the field).
Shorthorn Plus Heifer | SOLD | She didn't last long!
*Cell phone pic taken last night before dark
*This female is structurally correct, long patterned, powerful and complete!!!
*I'll take my chances at most Iowa county fairs with this one and then make her a steer makin' Donor cow!
*Outcross to most club calf genetics
*Tonic x Black Maine Cow
DOB: 4-2-13
*Inquires call 319-327-0806
2013 Projected Corn Yield Compared to Trend Yields
2013 Projected Corn Yield Compared to Trend Yields
September 16, 2013
By: University News Release
Comparing these two yield numbers helps to assess which areas of the country are having better relative yields than other areas.
By Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois
On Sept. 12, USDA released revised projections of 2013 state corn yields. Also released were 2013 projected crop reporting district (CRD) yields for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Texas. These projected yields are compared to 2013 trend yields to assess which areas of the country are having better relative yields than other areas.
State Projections
Figure 1 shows projected state yields divided by trend yields, hereafter referred to as relative yields. Illinois' relative yield is 1.00. This means that the USDA's projected yield of 165 bushels per acre equals the trend yield of 165 bushels per acre. The 2013 trend yields were calculated by fitting a trend line through state level yield data from 1975 through 2012, and then projecting a 2013 yield. Relative yields above 1.0 indicate that yields are above trend. Relative yields below 1.0 indicate that the projected yield is below trend. Overall, higher values indicate better yields relative to expectations.
(Click to view larger image)
The highest values occur in a stretch of states beginning along the eastern seaboard from Pennsylvania through Alabama. From these highs, relative yields decrease toward the center of the Corn Belt. Ohio and Indiana's 2013 yields are projected above trend. Illinois 2013 yield is at trend. Iowa and Minnesota's yields are below trends. In the western Corn Belt, several states have near or above trend yield: South Dakota's relative yield is 1.07 and Nebraska's yield is .99. The lowest relative yields occur in Oklahoma (.86) and North Dakota (.87).
CRD Projections
A more refined view of relative yields can be gained for the six states for which CRD yields were released by USDA. Relative CRD yields less than .85 occur in southern Texas, central and eastern Kansas, and southwest Missouri. Relative CRD yields above 1.15 occur in southern Texas.
Within the Corn Belt, higher relative yields occur in the eastern Corn Belt and lower yields in the western Corn Belt. Relative yields above 1.15 occur in Indiana, southern Illinois, and southeast Missouri. Northern and central Illinois, northern Missouri, and southeast Iowa are projected to have yields near trend. Northern and western Iowa are projected to have yields below trend.
Summary
Within the Corn Belt the highest yields relative to trend occur in the eastern Corn Belt. Yields become lower moving west through Iowa. Lower yields in the western Corn Belt will push down national yields from levels that could have occurred had the entire Corn Belt had yields at or above trend.
Prevent Plant Update
Brian Grete (@BGrete) tweeted at 5:32 AM on Tue, Sep 17, 2013: FSA acreage data: PP corn @ 3.573 mil ac. vs 3.411 mil. ac. in Aug. PP beans @ 1.687 mil. ac. vs. 1.619 mil. ac. in Aug.
Sunday, September 15, 2013
National Cattle Congress | Reserve Grand Champion Heifer
Shown by Luke Lawless, Independence, IA
Raised & sold by Pete Burmeister
Sired by Monopoly
Congtats Luke & TJ on another big win and great year!!
Friday, September 13, 2013
Tailgate Saturday September 14th- GO CYCLONES
News from the Coffeeshop will be hosting a tailgate for readers and football fans who wish to attend.
We are planning to be set up in the “Haunted Forest” tailgating lot
Look for the Coffeeshop Flag flying high
Check the website for exact coordinates and directions on Saturday.
Look forward to seeing you there. GO CYCLONES!
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Updated National & Iowa Soybean Yield Projection
Ag Decision Maker (@ISU_AgDM) tweeted at 11:07 AM on Thu, Sep 12, 2013: Sept. USDA Update: US soy @ 41.2bu/ac, down 1.4bu/ac from last month. IA soy @ 43bu/ac, down 3bu/ac from last month.
Updated National & Iowa Corn Yield Projections
Ag Decision Maker (@ISU_AgDM) tweeted at 11:06 AM on Thu, Sep 12, 2013: Sept. USDA Update: US corn yield @ 155.3bu/ac, up 0.9bu/ac from last month. IA corn @ 162bu/ac, down 1bu/ac from last month.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Cash Rental Rates
Brent (@grainman34) tweeted at 11:28 AM on Tue, Sep 10, 2013: Customer had a landlord receive a cash rent letter today from a farmer 150 miles away. $500/acre for 3yr SW IL B+/A- soils. #ineedthatpencil
Monday, September 9, 2013
USDA Crop Report Feedback
Brandt Fehl (@BrandtFehl) tweeted at 5:13 PM on Mon, Sep 09, 2013: Pretty sure USDA has their head completely stuck in their ass!!! 52% good to excellent? #looksgoodfrommyhighrise
Corn Stalk Quality | Chip Flory
Chip Flory (@ChipFlory) tweeted at 7:38 AM on Mon, Sep 09, 2013: Talked with some guys scouting fields over the weekend. They were making a priority list for harvest based on stalk quality. (more)
Ben Olson & Gary Dolphin | Iowa vs. Iowa State Week
Never mind the fact that Ben is a huge Iowa State Fan and Alumni!!
Oh... did I mention it's Rivalry Week!
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
The Professional Agronomist | What's Your Number?
What’s Your Number?
This time of year I get it all the time. At the gas station. Grocery store. Hardware store. At the gym. The local tavern. It literally happens every day. “Hi. What’s your number?” “Hey big guy, think I could get your digits?” “I know you got a number in mind, wanna write it on my napkin…” “Think
I could get your number for Friday?” It’s suffocating. There’s no escape.
I could get your number for Friday?” It’s suffocating. There’s no escape.
Now as flattering as it would be to get all the attention, I’m a happy, soon-to-be married man and I’m not talking about my phone number here. Let’s not get weird. I’m talking about my yield number. It’s seems like everyone has one around this time of year. Some heard it from someone that seemed to have a grasp on the current status of the crop. Some just repeat what they read from reports from different agencies. Some are just taking their own stab. Some have a number, but they’re not really sure how they got it or where it came from, they just have it. More than likely, if your number is low, you’re more apt to share. Misery loves company right? On the other hand, if your number is high, you’re more apt to keep it to yourself. Or you’ll likely share with someone that might have a number similar to yours.
How many of you stick with your original number? Does your number change depending on who you’re with or around? Does your number change the closer we get to harvest? Is your number influenced by the grain markets? I’m sure in all of those instances it does.
What’s interesting to me is that most don’t come about their number by themselves. A few of you probably do yield checks just to get an idea, but do you do enough roll that up into field averages? Farm averages? I can understand some arguments. “ But Jake, counting kernels is a waste of time. It’s never accurate.” “There’s too many unknown factors, ear count, kernel weight, etc that are just hard to grasp.” “I can’t count kernels and drink beer at the same time. At least not accurately.” I have heard many different opinions on counting kernels and I believe anyone can get it close. Why do I believe that? Because it gets done every year. I have done it myself. We’ll touch on that later. First my perspective on some folks that have the courage to get out, do yield estimates, and then publish those numbers for everyone to see and criticize. I’m talking more specifically about the USDA and the Pro Farmer Crop tour.
About a week ago, the farm I work for hosted a group of traders, brokers, investors, etc. I’m not completely sure those are the actual titles of the visitors so you’ll have to bear with me. I’m mainly a plant and dirt guy. I think they were fairly important people though. But anyway, they were on a “tour” and obviously, given their professions, they had a significant interest in this year’s crop. I used the term “tour” lightly because they were really just a group of folks from the East Coast riding around the Corn Belt, talking to farmers and farm groups, staying at nice hotels, eating nice meals, blowing up the expense accounts and drinking a lot. The day they visited us, they stopped and made a total of three yield estimates. Big day.
They visited us around lunch time and invited us down to Des Moines to continue the conversation with drinks and dinner at a nice hotel. Shocker. They set up to have Steven Johnson, Farm & Ag Business Mgt. Specialist, from ISU extension talk about the USDA’s Objective Yield Survey, how they conduct it and discuss the accuracy of their numbers. If you’ve ever been at a meeting with Dr. Johnson before, you know that he is a very good presenter. Very pro-ISU, very pro-Big 12. He talked about how the USDA conducts their objective yield surveys, a very mundane process that the USDA has been doing since at least 1958. 55 years. With the permission of the farmer, they go out to marked spots in fields, count ears and harvest them for weight. Then they go back after harvest and check harvest loss. It’s not a very exciting process but they been doing it the same way for over 5 decades.
Don’t agree with the USDA numbers? They don’t really care. How do I know? In every August crop production report, they give us their yield estimates. To supplement those numbers, they give you a table called the “Reliability of August 1 Crop Production Forecasts”. Looks like this.
This August 2013 table basically makes the statement. “Our numbers are what they are. This is our track record. Love it or leave it.” Let’s look at a couple numbers: the “Root mean square error” and the “90% confidence interval”. Per the USDA report, the RSME basically means the most the report will be off by in 2 out 3 years is 6.0%. The “90% confidence interval” means that in 9 out of 10 years, the most they will off by is 10.4%. Interesting fact: In 1978, the RSME was 6.4% and the 90% CI was 11.0%. Needless to say, the USDA has been pretty consistent that last 35 years.
With this chart, they fully disclose that they are not perfect. But they’re pretty darn good. The USDA for over 5 decades has been guessing final corn and soybean yields in August and then comparing their August estimates to the final yields in January. And by the time they make their final changes for the October report, they pretty much have it locked down. As of right now, they are our best resource for knowing how good or bad the crop will be before it starts going in the bin.
Another group that “takes a stab” at estimating crop yields in August is the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. As I write, they are just wrapping up the final leg of the tour right here in Iowa and southern MN. In the past, I have heard bits and pieces from different people about the tour. But in today’s world of internet, Twitter and various media outlets, it’s really hard to miss. It appears to me to be a great group of people traveling the Corn Belt, getting out of their vehicles and out into the corn and soybean fields. I love reading about their observations along the way as well. All in all, it’s another great way for us to learn about the current crop and gauge for ourselves the final outcome.
So here are some quick comparisons between the USDA August Objective Yield Surveys and the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Like I stated earlier, the USDA started doing objective yield surveys at least by 1957. The Pro Farmer Crop tour started in 1993. So the USDA has about 35+ years on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. The USDA publishes the reliability of their reports. Pro Farmer does not. If they do, I couldn’t find them anywhere. I did look back at the past 2 years results and make some small comparisons.
All together, they are both pretty good. I think all can agree that the USDA is typically better but they have been at it for a substantially longer period of time. On a national level, you have many options as to who you want to believe. The USDA and Pro Farmer Crop tour are who I deem as the most reliable based purely off of their methods and amount of time they have been doing it. In the future, we may have even more options to work with. And I predict that some organizations will start trying to make yield projections as early as June or July using satellite and aerial imagery as the base of their analysis. In order for them to be successful, I feel they are going to need several years, maybe 5-10 years, of predicting yields and then correlating them to final numbers. And even then so, they will have to prove their reliability to be a player in that market.
I can think of several good reasons why a producer should be predicting his own yields well before harvest.
1. It physically requires you to be out in your fields, collecting samples for counting. While you’re at it, you might as well be making observations as well. Plant health, insects, standability, pollination and crop maturity are all things you can be looking at. The less surprises at harvest, the better right?
2. You don’t have to wait till harvest to find out if your assumptions on the year are correct. Did you make a major change to your operation and you’re anxious to know the results? Get out and learn ahead of time. You might be able to make adjustments to fall operations ahead of time based off of the knowledge you gained.
3. Adjustments to your marketing plan can happen prior to harvest and not while you’re in the combine seat. You can have confidence in the sales you make, knowing the grain will be there.
4. Ultimately, it makes you better than your competition. If I were to estimate the percentage of grower’s who take the time to accurately predict yields, it would easily be under 10%. Maybe under 5%.
5. As long as you’re being somewhat conservative, the cost of being wrong is very low. Even the time spent in the field should not be considered a waste.
So what’s the best method for predicting corn yields? Before I walk you through how I predict yields and give you some guidelines to go by, I better expose my track record so you can differentiate whether or not I know what I’m talking about. For the sake of confidentiality, I’ll just give you my percent errors. And the regions are just different areas I predict yields in.
I’ve had some good years and some bad years. One region I do pretty well in, one region I do pretty poor in. I’ve stuck with the same method pretty much all the way through. But I have made some adjustments. However, I’ve waited to make them until I had more than 1 year of results. You have to treat predicting corn yields like you’re sighting in a rifle. 1 shot will give you somewhat of an idea of where adjustments need to be made but 2-3 shots will give you a definitive group from which you can adjust accordingly.
Here is the basic formula that I use and I’m sure most everyone uses.
Kernels/Bushel
General Tips & Guidelines
· Count kernels on a lot of ears. When I’m doing yield checks, I walk into the field 80-100 yards. I close my eyes and walk 5-10 paces and grab a stalk. I take the next 10 ears right in a row. Depending on how many fields you have, you might want to take more or less. The more ears you count, the more accurate your estimate will be.
· Learn how to speed count or measure the length. I count kernels long instead of measuring, mainly because that’s how I started doing it. And I got fast at it by learning to count in multiples of 3. 3,6,9,12,15….. Don’t get hung up on where to start or stop on the ear, just find an average row. I’m sure measuring works good, I just don’t want to change my methods. When counting kernels around, split the ear. Hold it up with your thumb on bottom and your index finger on top. Count only the right or left side and double it.
· Know your ear count. I take stand counts in every field in the spring. I use those numbers from the stand counts as my Ears/Acre count. If you don’t take stand counts in the spring, do ear counts as your taking ear samples. 2 stakes, small chain or cable between them. You can use rope but know that it has the ability to stretch. 1/1000th of an acre long. 17’5” if you’re in 30” rows. Don’t want to do either? Use 8% as a loss factor from your planted population. Planted 35K, lost 8%, 32.2K final stand/ear count.
· Adjust kernels/bushel. I have been using 95,000 kernels / bushel as a number that works for me. I adjusted that to 105,000 in 2012 based off of moisture conditions and it turned out pretty good. For 2013, I’ll revert back to 95,000, except for 1 region.
· Document your guess. Even go to the extent of showing or telling someone. It makes you accountable to your methods. And once everyone is done ridiculing you for how poor of estimate you made, you then have motivation to do better next year. And the year after that.
· Have fun. Don’t like doing it? Think of ways to make it fun. Make it a contest. Hold an awards ceremony. Organize a crop tour like the News from Coffee Shop crew.
If you would like to continue the discussion, share your experiences, or complain about the “10 minutes of your life you won’t get back”, email me: jthoms11@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter: @cropguyjake
Jake Thomsen is an agronomist for farming operation in central Iowa. Jake is marrying his fiancée Mollie in December and at that point will be relocating and making a career change to the Iowa City/Cedar Rapids area. His hobbies include waterfowl, pheasant and mushroom hunting, fishing, golf, softball, and Cyclone athletics.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
From Tim Harbaugh | AgriGold Seed
Click on the following link, or cut and paste it to your web browser.
Article Link: http://agrigold.securetree.com/Universal/Articles/Corn-Firing
If you have any questions please let me know.
Tim
Tim Harbaugh
563-580-1212
PRESS RELEASE: News from the Coffee Shop
PRESS RELEASE
September 3, 2013
Beginning tomorrow morning, September 4th, we will release a new, monthly column entitled:
The Professional Agronomist.
This will be a featured column each month on the News from the Coffee Shop Agronomy Page as part of our NEW WEBSITE, which is set for release by October 1, 2013.
The NEW WEBSITE will maintain the current feel and navigation of the popular News from the Coffee Shop Blog, while adding additional content pages about Livestock, Marketing & Business, Rural Lifestyle, News & Events, and a Directory page which includes a classified ad section.
Please continue to check www.newscoffeeshop.com for current news and information. The current site will remain functioning until the new website is rolled out.
Space is still available for those interested in promoting their business to our Ag based readership. Interested parties please call 319-327-0806 or 515-520-7756.
Pete & Rob
Weekly Crop Update | Scott Hingtgen
east central Iowa (Jackson county).Corn silage harvest has begun. 2 weeks ago we thought we wouldn’t be chopping until the 15th-20th of Sept. because of the cool July weather and planting delays. Since then the excessive heat along with minimal rainfall has rapidly sped up maturity. As we all know,that’s not good. A month ago everyone was talking about booking LP and trying to figure out how to get the crop dry,now everyone is wondering how much of the crop has been lost the past few weeks. A lot of guys are running out of pasture and now feeding hay just like last year.As far as the bean crop goes, I haven’t walked into many, I figured there was not sense of looking at something that has the potential of shrinking with every passing day with no rain in sight.
Friday, August 30, 2013
Crop Tour '13 | Final Yield Results
Buchanan County, IA Yield Results
NW District: 180 BPA
NE District: 184 BPA
SW District: 195 BPA
SE District: 149 BPA
Overall County Average: 177 BPA
Crop Tour Yield Check | Stop #7 Norman Scout Team
Two different sets... 164.9, 172.1 on one variety.... 235, 196.7. North field avg 215.88 - Sputh field avg 168.5.
From Adam White & Brian Carlson | The Big Show
Carlson said they gave a shout out to the blog on the big show!
From Scott Hingtgen | The Big Show Text Line
How's the crop tour going? its hotter than hell over here now.I put it on the big show because I didn't think you believed that we were actually working today!
Crop Tour | From Adam White Scout Team
Our average for the day is 198. Hard to believe but the numbers don't lie do they?!!
From Jessica Reis | The Big Show
Just heard the news from the coffee shop & crop tour shout out on the big show...nice!
Crop Tour Yield Check | Central Buchanan County
Light soil...first field planted in mid-May. 198.2 to 208, average of 201.7 bu/ac
Crop Tour Yield Check | 2013 Variability
2013 variability.... Yield range 136.72 to 181.72 witness an average of 165.5.... On to the next
Crop Tour | Corn on Corn vs Corn on Soybeans
Lower yield estimate on larger diameter ear (due to ear count), but much better kernel depth and less N stress.
Crop Tour | Common Rust- 2013 Poster Child Disease
Three consecutive leave from the ear leaf up....
From Marcus Norman, Innovative Ag Services
Crop Tour Yield Check | Eastern Blackhawk County
This did have late side dress Urea by air.... 50 units. The rain still leached more N than acceptable....
However.... Still, two yield checks 192.8 and 182.47 with a noticed increased ear count.
Crop Tour Yield Check | NW Buchanan County
Much better ear count... Range 153.9 to 181.92 avg of 167.9. No-till corn on corn with fairly intensive management.
Crop Tour | Insect issues remain
Seeing some root worm beetles flying around in a few fields
From Adam White, Richard Crain & Benji Michels
Second picture from Marcus Norman's Group
Crop Tour Yield Check | Independence Area
235 average yield estimate
Corn on Corn
20in rows
Spring applied ammonia
Crop Tour Yield Check | Buchanan County | Rowley Corner
Average yield estimate of 174 BPA, range of 157 to 190 BPA
103 & 105 day Pioneer Corn
Corn on Corn at 33,500 population
Split Nitrogen application of spring anhydrous and 32% liquid knifed in mid July.
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Crop Tour '13- August 30th
Crop Tour 2013 will be held tommorrow, August 30th beginning at 7:30 AM.
Please meet at the Vogel Crop Services Pioneer building in Independence, IA.
The plan as of now, is to split into groups go over the measurment procedure quickly, and be on the road shortly before 8AM!!
The tour is expected to conclude between 3 & 4 PM!
The weather is expected to be WARM again tommorrow, please plan accordingly.
See YOU in Independence tommorrow morning!!
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Bankrupt AgFeed Unit Goes To Company Trio In $79.2M Bid
By Jamie Santo
Law360, Wilmington -- Bankrupt hog farmer AgFeed Industries Inc. on Tuesday announced a new buyer for its U.S. operations as a collection of companies combined to overtake the stalking horse bidder at auction with an offer valued at $79.2 million.
The offer from High Plains Pork LLC, Cohoma Pork LLC and Murphy-Brown LLC was tapped as the winner at a Monday auction, edging out stalking horse The Maschhoffs LLC, according to a notice filed in Delaware bankruptcy court.
AgFeed selected the triumvirate's bid, which includes less cash than The Maschhoffs' offer, after determining the deal provided a greater net value, the notice said.
AgFeed placed the net value of the winning bid at more than $79.2 million, a figure that accounts for a cash purchase price just shy of $54.2 million, adjustments for the payment of certain fees and expenses, and proceeds to be received from the sale and collection of assets not being acquired, according to the notice.
The Maschhoffs' offer, which includes a cash component of nearly $80.8 million, was deemed to have a net value of about $79 million after similar calculations, the notice said.
AgFeed selected the winning bid after consulting with advisers, the official committee of unsecured creditors, the official equity holders committee, and secured lender Farm Credit Services of America, according to the notice.
A sale hearing is scheduled for Thursday before U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Brendan L. Shannon.
Court-approved bid procedures allow AgFeed to consider a combination of piecemeal offers for its various assets, so it is unclear if High Plains, Cohoma and Murphy-Brown are pooling together or if each is acquiring individual properties.
Counsel for AgFeed was not immediately available for comment Tuesday.
The Maschhoffs were tapped as the back-up bidder, which AgFeed can fall back on in the event that the sale to the winning consortium doesn't close.
For serving as a stalking horse, The Maschhoffs are entitled to a breakup fee of just under $2.4 million and a maximum reimbursement allowance just short of $800,000, according to court documents.
AgFeed Industries, which breeds hogs in China and the U.S., sought court protection on July 15 with an agreement in hand to sell the bulk of its domestic operations — AgFeed USA LLC and related subsidiaries — to industry rival The Maschhoffs LLC for $79 million.
At the bid procedures hearing earlier this month, AgFeed attorney Robert S. Brady said that under the asset purchase agreement with The Maschhoffs, the $79 million price tag would be lowered by about $12.5 million to account for the hogs sold off since the deal was struck. The Maschhoffs would take on $5.1 million in assumptions, however, putting the total value at about $71.6 million.
Additional assets would be available to creditors as well, Brady said, since the deal does not include some $7 million in cash brought in by recent hog sales and AgFeed USA's facility in Oklahoma, which continues to be marketed.
Secured debt owed to Farm Credit Services of America would total about $69 million as of the end of August, he said.
AgFeed USA's troubles stem from a falling out with primary business partner Hormel Foods Corp., which provided about half of the young pigs the company raised and later bought back full-grown hogs, according to court documents. The parties have agreed to wind down their arrangement by the end of the year, and AgFeed stopped purchasing young pigs from Hormel on July 1.
AgFeed is represented by Robert S. Brady, Donald J. Bowman Jr., Robert F. Poppiti Jr. and Ian J. Bambrick of Young Conaway Stargatt & Taylor LLP.
The creditors' committee is represented by Sandra G.M. Selzer of Greenberg Traurig LLP and Jeffrey D. Prol, Timothy R. Wheeler, Beth L. Williams and Bruce S. Nathan of Lowenstein Sandler LLP.
Farm Credit Services is represented by Michael B. Schaedle and Regina Stango Kelbon of Blank Rome LLP.
The case is In re: AgFeed USA LLC, case number 1:13-bk-11761, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.
--Additional reporting by Matt Chiappardi. Editing by Philip Shea.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Monday, August 26, 2013
Ponzi Scheme
Benjamin Riensche (@BenRiensche) tweeted at 0:33 PM on Mon, Aug 26, 2013: 2012 early harvest #corn used in 2011 mkt year, "finding" 400k bu, 97? Mil acres, >prevent planting. Maybe today the USDA's corn Ponzi ends
Pork industry finds out how to have it both ways
Alan Guebert - Farm File
via News-Sentinel.com
The marketing geniuses hired by the National Pork Board sure sold a lot of hams, bacons and butts when, in 1987, they began to promote pork as “The Other White Meat.”
Now, 25 years after that brilliant sleight of hand, the pork crowd wants to be known as something else – the other red meat, beef.
Two years ago, checkoff leaders from the Cattlemen's Beef Board (CBB) and the National Pork Board (NPB) voted to fund a joint research project to “reduce and eliminate consumer confusion at the meat case.”
The result was a complete overhaul of something that goes by the unappetizing name of URMIS, or the Uniform Retail Meat Identity Standards.
The makeover, according the beef, pork and lamb checkoff-funded website www.meattrack.com, “created a Common Name standard that simplifies cut names, reduces unappealing terms, eliminates redundancies and provides a unique name structure for meat cuts.”
Well, kind of.
For example, the complicated name “pork chop” is out and in is “pork porterhouse chop.” Other pork chops will get other new names. The “pork rib chop” will become the “pork ribeye chop” and the “pork top loin chop” will shed that completely unworkable name for the much preferred “pork New York chop.”
In all, “14 cuts of pork are getting new consumer-friendly cut names, many that align with already-famous beef names,” explains www.porkretail.org, a pork checkoff-funded website that dives into the pork-maiden/beef-married name thing.
Not surprisingly, the name changes “right out of the gate” will “help consumers think about pork in a whole new way: like a steak,” explains the website. This is “an unprecedented opportunity… to reap extraordinary benefits…”
Unless, of course, you're sitting on a horse looking at a herd of cattle that will become actual porterhouses, ribeyes and New York strips.
So how did the beef checkoff fund research that ended up with pork shoulder being sold — no kidding — in meatcases and restaurants as “brisket”?
Danni Beer, a South Dakota rancher and fellow CBB member, wrote USDA a letter in May, that asked that exact question. In it she explains how she was given a 223-page book on beef checkoff “Authorization Requests” back in 2011 to study.
Many of those “ARs,” noted Beer, included “Attachment A's' from the National Cattlemen's Beef Association,” the beef checkoff's main contractor. One of those NCBA attachments, she explained, included funding for tracking “consumer confusion at the meatcase.” But “nowhere,” she went on, “can I find a measurable objective that includes working with the National Pork Board… to develop across species a set of common names for retail cuts.”
Well, wrote the USDA in reply, maybe “the AR could have been written more clearly,” but since it was approved, it's now in effect.
And that's just how it is in the checkoff world where up is down, red meat is white meat and the very next pork checkoff slogan might be, Pork: And You Thought You Were Buying Beef!
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Yield Potential 86k Corn | Hingtgen POPULATION TRIAL
Well Pete, you asked for it,here it is.
Hope I don’t screw this up! Corn planted at 80K & 86K along with replant at 40K. First planted my brain fart on 5-21-13, replant 5-31-13.
Here is my disclaimer.......yields are based on my late 80’s-early 90’s Wyffels yield calculator and ears were picked in a very small area (field received .6” of welcomed rain Thursday morning) and some amount still remained, making the walk very itchy.
Ear counts and extremely unofficial yields using 10% reduction in final stand (remember,this is farmer math) on corn planted in 15" rows. 86K yield 180 bu./acre(13x16 avg. ear size with 77.4K final stand). 80K yield 220 bu/acre(16x17 avg. ear size with 72K final stand). 40K yield 210 bu./acre(16.5x32 avg. ear size with 26K final stand). After this research I think I could have had 280 bu./acre corn with 80K if the rain wouldn't have stopped and not had tip back(16x25x72K). Who need research farms when I do it with no taxpayer funding(but I'm not against donations). Note: Pictures are as follows... 86k, 40k, 80k, samples of ears are 86k, 80k, 40k
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