USDA's blow to corn farmers and traders was two-fold. First, it found enough bushels to peg June 1 corn stocks in all positions at 3.670 billion bushels. That's down from 4.310 billion the previous year, but it's up 346 million from the average trade pre-report estimate that had been factored into the market.
The date implies third quarter corn usage of just 2.85 billion bushels, down 530 million from the previous year. That's a bit puzzling, considering that recent reports indicated that livestock numbers were up from year ago levels during the period, as is ethanol production. Those two sectors make up the bulk of corn's demand.
Second, USDA estimated corn planting intentions at 92.2 million acres on March 31, but we all knew that every thing would have to go right for that many acres to get planted. It didn't, so USDA lowered its corn acreage estimate to 90.7 million on June 9, with many in the trade expecting a further reduction today. Yet, USDA raised its estimate to 92.3 million acres this morning, which is the second largest acreage since 1944.
Furthermore, USDA pegged this year's harvested acreage at 84.9 million, or 92% of planted acreage. That's above the 10-year average of 91%, which is kind of ironic in a year with so much flooding and ponding in fields.
As seen on Farm Futures Daily Email Blast
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