Saturday, May 5, 2012
KY DERBY INSIGHT
Bodemeister is looking even better in my eyes after Groupie Dolls win while being on the front.. -- Jordyn Burco (@JordynB27)
More Ky Derby Day Photos
Pre-Derby race at Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY... from Kristin Boe, News From The Coffee Shop Day Photographer!
You Are Looking Live!
A look at Churchill Downs from the Jockey Club Suites.... from Kristin Boe, News From The Coffee Shop day photographer live in Louisville, KY!
Ky Derby Longshots
if your lookin for long shots go with Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, Went The Day Well or Sabercat! Good luck! @newscoffeeshop -- Jordyn Burco (@JordynB27)
Friday, May 4, 2012
From Jordyn Burco on Ky Oaks Results
I hope you used Belive You Can! Knew she was gonna get it done had Summer Applause for 4th 2. GraceHall 3rd.BroadwaysAlibi 2nd -- Jordyn Burco (@JordynB27)
Our Reply: Picks were spot on! Can we keep it going thru the Derby tomorrow?
Gardening
getting peppers and tomatoes to plant in the garden tonight #lifeonthefarm -- Justine Hosch (@farmers_gal)
Planting 2012
We are back in the fields, lets just hope the rain stays away for the next few days!!! -- Kyle Mehmen (@mbsfamilyfarms)
Kentucky Derby Hopefuls- 5 of 5
17. Done Talking (50-1) Hamilton Smith trainee– Can a slow horse win the Kentucky Derby? The answer is yes, it's happened before, and it will happen again. One of the things that needs to happen is a pace meltdown, and this year, there is a realistic chance of that taking place with the addition of the sprinter, Trinniberg to the field. The other thing that needs to happen, in order for a slow horse to wear the roses, is to have an overall lack of talent in the field. Unfortunately for Done Talking, I do not think that is true this year. In this field, it's much more likely a solid rally only takes the Illinois Derby winner to sixth or worse. He’s not a complete toss out, he looked good over Churchill, but these are the pro’s so he will have to step up a lot to win.
18. Sabercat (30-1) Just like Daddy Nose Best, this horse may be a “Wise guys horse.” He couldn't be any more ready for the derby, they already knew he had enough earnings when he won the $1 million delta jackpot last fall. Steve Asmussen the trainer, has been preparing this horse for the derby all winter and spring. He’s been an 8th and 3rd this year in graded stakes, which does worry me a tad. I’m not too worried about this gate position at all, should suit him just fine being on the outside. He’s out of Bluegrass Cat who finished 2nd in both the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Travers which are all lengthy races, so the distance will be right up his alley. His broodmare line is also filled with gifted long distance runners. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this one finish in the top 5.
19. I’ll Have Another (12-1)- (Flower Alley-Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Doug O'Neill traine– He backed up his big upset in the Robert Lewis with a fantastic performance in the Santa Anita Derby to narrowly defeat Creative Cause. I'm not ready to place him above that rival, but he proved to me that he has the class to win in 3 1/2 weeks. He is bred to go ten furlongs, and will hit Churchill Downs as one of the most fresh horses in the race, leading me to believe he still may have more room for improvement. That is a scary proposition for the rest of the field. Another scary factor is that he can close like no other, which will be to his advantage in the derby. I really do like this horse, but just not on derby day. Look for him to do better things down the road. Like many others in this field, I wouldn't be surprised to see him win either. It took a lot out of me to not put him in my top 5, but he certainly is close to it. I just think I’ll Have Another pick on derby day.
Just like Optimizer, Liaison would have provided some value with a better post, but isn't worth the risk having to travel from the outside. Find a better long shot.
ALSO ELIGIBLE - My Adonis will be entered if one of the horses above are scratched by 9 A.M. on Friday. A quick note about him if he's entered, he has no chance at all.
Good Read
Iowa Farm Bureau - Bullying the Farm Kid http://t.co/G1wtsDZ3 via @IowaFarmBureau -- Pete Burmeister (@newscoffeeshop)
Closing Grain Markets
CORN MAY 662.25+11.5s
BEANS MAY 1475+6.25s
LCAT JUN 115.725-0.15
LHOG MAY 79.675-1.625
BEANS MAY 1475+6.25s
LCAT JUN 115.725-0.15
LHOG MAY 79.675-1.625
Kentucky Derby Hopefuls- 4 of 5
By Jordyn Burco
13. Went The Day Well (20-1) - Great horse at a great price. Graham Motion is the trainee and is being rode by John Velazquez. This horse has the same trainer, jockey and owners that won the derby last year with Animal Kingdom. Team Valor quoted, that this horse is more along then Animal Kingdom was, and already has a win over dirt, unlike Animal Kingdom. This is a very intriguing, interesting horse. Couldn’t be anymore happier either with this post. I really want to use him in my trifecta, but what's holding me back is he may be not experienced enough, and hasn't seen stiff competition yet. He’s looking great at churchill, and has had some outstanding works over the dirt, but I’m not sure yet. If he wins, I sure won't be shocked, since he’s good enough. I look for this horse to be more talented down the road, just give him a couple more months and he could be the best 3 year old out there. I just may change my mind and use him, but hes currently sitting on my 4th spot. Put money on him, if you have faith in a beautiful, brilliant, yet untested quality colt!
13. Went The Day Well (20-1) - Great horse at a great price. Graham Motion is the trainee and is being rode by John Velazquez. This horse has the same trainer, jockey and owners that won the derby last year with Animal Kingdom. Team Valor quoted, that this horse is more along then Animal Kingdom was, and already has a win over dirt, unlike Animal Kingdom. This is a very intriguing, interesting horse. Couldn’t be anymore happier either with this post. I really want to use him in my trifecta, but what's holding me back is he may be not experienced enough, and hasn't seen stiff competition yet. He’s looking great at churchill, and has had some outstanding works over the dirt, but I’m not sure yet. If he wins, I sure won't be shocked, since he’s good enough. I look for this horse to be more talented down the road, just give him a couple more months and he could be the best 3 year old out there. I just may change my mind and use him, but hes currently sitting on my 4th spot. Put money on him, if you have faith in a beautiful, brilliant, yet untested quality colt!
14. Hansen (10-1) - Trainer is Michael Maker – Your Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse 2 year old of the year. I truly believe that Hansen is a really good horse, and one of the best of his generation. The issue I have, and I expect Hansen will have, is that in no way does the Kentucky Derby set up well for him. I do not think ten furlongs will be his best distance, nor do I see much hope that Hansen will get much of a breather at anytime during the first six furlongs, and that is true if he is first early, or even fourth. Only one horse in the past 11 years has won the derby while having the lead. This year’s derby is going to have a very fast pace, which he will be involved with and will not set up will for him .Now the Preakness, on the other hand, could be an entirely different story. Did I tell ya he’s white? Well not exactly, he's registered grey but doesn't have much of that. He already has a win over Churchill’s surface, so who knows maybe he can hold on for the win, but I'm not seeing it.
15. Gemologist (6-1) - Undefeated 5 for 5! Very tempted to put him number 1. This horse runs just like his dad did, who is the only horse to win the Breeders Cup Classic twice. He has a turn of foot and is gritty just like Tiznow. Trained by Todd Pletcher – What's not to like? He's never been beaten, is well bred, has solid connections, has won already twice at churchill and showed another gear late in the Wood Memorial. The only thing I really question is has he had enough practice this year? He only ran twice this year and one of them was just an allowance field that he beat by 7 lengths. Post 15 is exactly what Todd Pletcher wanted, he will benefit greatly from this, way more then my other favorite Union Rags post. He’s looking like a superstar ever since he arrived at Churchill on Sunday, can definitely see him winning. Otherwise, I love this horse's chances and you don't want to get in a fight with this one, because good luck beating him. I love Union Rags, but even this horse is almost calling for me to put him at number 1.
16. El Padrino (20-1) - This may be your dark derby horse! Padrino is a Pulpit-Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway and is trained by the top trainer in the country- Todd Pletcher. He will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. I highly believe that he will fall in love with the Churchill downs surface and distance. He’s a mystery horse to a lot of people, and you may just want to put a bet on this horse. He’s one of your long shots for a reason- finishing 4th in the Florida derby. If his jockey wasn’t so concerned about Union Rags trip the whole time, this horse may have finished better than 4th, same with Rags. This horse is a true, gritty horse, and has what it takes in that heart to win the derby (as do a lot of horses). He won the Risen Star Stakes, beating Mark Veleski in a thriller finish, where the duo dulled down the stretch and Padrino would eventually pull clear to win. I will say the exact same thing about him as I did Union Rags, toss his Florida Derby performance out. The Florida Derby was just not his day as far as pace, track, and tactics, but what it really comes to for me, is that when a horse who has shown enough ability to be competitive against top horses, suddenly gets ten furlongs and a strong pace to boot, wonderful things can happen on the first Saturday in May. Wonderful things at excellent odds.
Next four horses will be released during the 3 PM hour... Done Talking, Sabercat, i'll Have Another, & Liaison
Kentucky Derby Hopefuls- 3 of 5
9. Trinniberg (50-1) I will be majorly shocked and fall out of my seat if this one wins. This horse shouldn’t be placed in the derby. This is a true sprinter/miler but nothing more in my eyes. He’s only raced 7 furlongs, and he's going to be expected to race 10 furlongs? Not good training right there. This horse’s pedigree is nothing special, a horse can always outrun their pedigree, but thing is this horse is not even mentally or physically ready to run 10 furlongs without being ruined. This will most likely be your pace setter, and he’s the reason why horses like Dullahan, Creative Cause, Daddy Nose Best or Union Rags will love him setting such a fast pace. If they really wanted to run him in a TC race they should of waited till the Preakness Stakes. Who knows, maybe he will blow us away and go wire to wire, but I have high doubts about him Saturday. I do give him this, he may be the most gorgeous horse out there lol!
10. Daddy Nose Best ( 15-1)- The “Wise Guys Horse.” No horse could be peaking at the right time or training perfectly leading up to Saturday. I myself am very tempted to throw him in my top 4. There really isn’t anything bad to say about this horse, one may say who has he really faced? I think you should just scratch all that, this horse is way talented and could possibly be that long shot to win. His sire is Scat Daddy (same as Daddy Long Legs) which I don't care for at 10 furlongs, but looking at the broodmare line with Belmont Winner Thunder Gulch down there I’m thinking he won’t have any problems at 10 furlongs. I like his running style, and the way he seems to really want to grind it out all the way to the wire. He also should benefit from picking up Garrett Gomez, and seems to be thriving since arriving at Louisville. If he's good enough, he's eligible to run huge. Put your cash on this one folks!
Next four horses will be released during the 1 PM hour... Went The Day Well, Hansen, Gemologist, & El Padrino
Kentucky Derby Hopefuls- 2 of 5
By Jordyn Burco
5. Dullahan (8-1) - Can this synthetic specialist be a legit dirt contender this Saturday? Out of Even The Score-Ava Mining My Own, by Smart Strike and trained by Dale Romans, and will be rode by Kent Desormeaux. A lot of people are ranking them high on their list, after his smashing win against Hansen in the Bluegrass Stakes. I myself, is listing him in my top 8. He questions me whether he will like the dirt surface at Churchill. The only races he has ever won were at Keeneland on synthetic surface, and every time he has raced on dirt even at churchill, he hasn’t shown up for a win. The distance does not question me at all, this horse is bred for the 1 ¼ miles and has shown in his past races he will love it. His closing kick is the best of the crop, and is perfectly suited for the distance and pace scenario of this year's Kentucky Derby. You want a horse that is just beginning to peak when May rolls around, and that is exactly where one of the best horseman in the nation, Dale Romans, would seem to be with this big son of Even the Score. It’s a leap of faith i'm taking, thinking he will like the dirt more then he has ever have before, but call me crazy; he’s good enough to win. I would never have thought this a few years ago, but the turf to synthetic prep route to Louisville has now proven to be a legitimate way to prepare a Kentucky Derby candidate, i.e. Animal Kingdom. Oh and did I tell ya his owners are from Des Moines?
6. Bodemeister (4-1) Your morning line favorite! Trained by the famous Bob Baffert. His 9 length romp in the Arkansas Derby was breathtaking. Bodemesiter along with Went The Day Well really called for me to somehow put one of them in my top 3, but I don't see enough experience. Taking the latter first, I find it extremely difficult to assume a horse, who has only two lifetime wins, will be able to do much more than thrust himself into a pace that is simply too hot to win, considering the rigors of the Kentucky Derby. The history part comes in as much for the lack of Derby wins for horses who crushed the fields in their last race before Churchill, as it does for the 130-year drought for unraced juveniles. This horse just needs more experience and when he does he will do wonderful things this summer and fall. This may be the best horse in the field. He reminds me a lot of Curlin, richest race horse ever. Curlin also was unraced at two, and won the Arkansas Derby by 9 lengths but finished 3rd in the Ky derby, but became a two time horse of the year once he got more experience. The reason why he’s not 2 or 3 on my list is because of experience and in history past of derby day, not many horses win while being on the lead. Look for a stalker, mid-pack or closer to win. Though, Bodemeister is a very, young talented horse. I would love to see Bob Baffert win again!
7. Rousing Sermon (50-1) Jerry Hollendorfer trainee – This horse always rallies. He seldom wins, but he always has something in the tank to pass horses when the real running begins. Maybe, just maybe, if the pace is hot, and the front runners start to wilt, he will be one of the main beneficiaries with that stretch kick. It seems a little far-fetched considering he has not been winning against lesser, but a good showing is certainly a possibility. In 3 career starts this year he’s been 3rd, 5th and 3rd, which were both Grade 2’s. I do like his post position, so maybe he's the sleeper? I think this horse is going to have to step up to win this race.
8. Creative Cause (12-1) One of my other top picks. This horse is always there at the finish. Mike Harrington is the trainer – Another that will come in to the Derby off a loss, but he ran a strong race in defeat. He rallied on the rail, before racing between horses the entire stretch of the Santa Anita Derby. The fact that he didn't run a straight course once again, this time without blinkers is worrisome, but he has yet to run a race where he did not look like one of the best of his generation. He looks like he is still improving, and should handle the Derby distance just fine. In 8 lifetime starts he’s never been worse than 3rd. Currently he’s number 3 on my list, but with his horrible shipping I’m kind of worried. When he arrived Sunday at Churchill he ripped off part of his hoof wall and had to be repaired, so I think this could hurt the horses chances. He also hasn't worked in the past couple of days, so this is also making me scared. Mike is a fantastic man, and in an interview he said he's fine, nothing to worry about. I respect the man's words, but I still have that sick feeling that this horse could come out a winner, but with this problem has faced in be dothe past days is worrying me. But look for this big horse tominant all across america in the next years. Who wouldn't want to see another grey win the derby?
6. Bodemeister (4-1) Your morning line favorite! Trained by the famous Bob Baffert. His 9 length romp in the Arkansas Derby was breathtaking. Bodemesiter along with Went The Day Well really called for me to somehow put one of them in my top 3, but I don't see enough experience. Taking the latter first, I find it extremely difficult to assume a horse, who has only two lifetime wins, will be able to do much more than thrust himself into a pace that is simply too hot to win, considering the rigors of the Kentucky Derby. The history part comes in as much for the lack of Derby wins for horses who crushed the fields in their last race before Churchill, as it does for the 130-year drought for unraced juveniles. This horse just needs more experience and when he does he will do wonderful things this summer and fall. This may be the best horse in the field. He reminds me a lot of Curlin, richest race horse ever. Curlin also was unraced at two, and won the Arkansas Derby by 9 lengths but finished 3rd in the Ky derby, but became a two time horse of the year once he got more experience. The reason why he’s not 2 or 3 on my list is because of experience and in history past of derby day, not many horses win while being on the lead. Look for a stalker, mid-pack or closer to win. Though, Bodemeister is a very, young talented horse. I would love to see Bob Baffert win again!
Next four horses will be released during the 11 AM hour... Trinniberg, Daddy Nose Best, Alpha, & Prospective
Kentucky Oaks Picks!
#kentuckyoaks day! I think my final selections are #GraceHall/ #BelieveYouCan/ #WhyNot/ #SummerApplause.Ya I threw out On fire baby!Go Grace -- Jordyn Burco (@JordynB27)
Kentucky Derby Hopefuls- 1 of 5
This week the Kentucky Derby horses were officially entered and assigned gate positions, which may be the biggest key to a victory in the winner’s circle. Here’s your official derby starters, their gate positions, morning line odds and a summary of what they’re chances are! Welcome to the 2012 Kentucky Derby... anyone in that gate has a chance at winning, as we all know. :) Your winner will most likely be a closer/setting off the pace and whoever has the best trip will win the roses. Godspeed to all the horses racing, and I hope for a safe return for all of them. This may be one of the best Derby fields we have seen in decades. ~Jordyn Burco
1. Daddy Long Legs (30-1) On the one hand you have a horse who already has a nice win at 1 3/16 miles for a trainer Aidan O'Brien, who knows how to get horses ready for big races, and at extended distances. On the other hand you have a horse coming halfway across the world for only his second race of the year, with only one awful race showing up on his dirt form, and with no distance pedigree to speak of. Only huge win was in the UAE Derby, but did he really run against anyone to brag about? He also got the dreadful 1 post, so I’m thinking throw this one out. The last horse to win from the 1 post was in 1986 with Ferdinand. 
2. Optimizer (50-1) The most notable thing about this horse is probably his hall of fame trainer, D. Wayne Lucas. Lucas has won 4 Kentucky Derby’s. He’s a very notable, respectable trainer. This is a late addition to the derby, as a few days ago Mark Veleski was taken out. Optimizer is not meant for the derby, looking at past records and pedigrees, it suggest that he’s a synthetic/turf specialist. In his four career starts this year he's been 9th, 6th, 2nd and 9th. There have actually been 9 winners to win in the 2 hole, but the last one was the triple crown winner Affirmed in 1978. Anything is possible in the derby and most of the time it’s not a bad decision putting money on a long shot, but I would stay clear from this one. Not enough upside on this one to convince me he will be in the winner's circle. 
3. Take Charge Indy (15-1) BO-RAIL! Yup, thats right this horse is being rode by many favorites--Calvin Borel. I really do ask myself why I don’t like this horse more? He's got the best breeding in the field, had a fantastic win in the Florida Derby and is ridden by Calvin, who knows how to get the perfect trip. I guess I see those series of losses before the Florida Derby, and think he is just not quite at the top of this class. If that win had been more dynamic, I probably would hold a different outlook, but with the track bias, moderate pace, and race-riding going on behind him, it struck me as more of a fluke than a horse announcing himself ready to take things to the next level. I sure wouldn’t be the least surprised to see him win though. This horse will most likely be sitting off the pace and will be saving the most ground and will be riding the rail! He’s at a great price, so why not bet on him?
4. Union Rags (9-2) - What’s they’re not to like about this horse? Hard to not have him on your top 3 contenders. This Dixie Union-Tempo, by Gone West colt is trained by 2006 Kentucky Derby winning Trainer Michael Matz, and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Toss his Florida Derby performance right out the window please. His 3rd place finish, may even lower his odds, which will make the betters happy. Well, maybe not a complete toss, as it should have given him the seasoning he will need to run a big race Saturday. With his horrible trip in the Florida Derby, I believe he left a lot more in the tank for derby day and gained a bag of lessons that will be helpful on Saturday. Matz couldn’t be anymore happier with his colt, and will be at his peak. As consistent and impressive as anyone in this crop, the only question I have left, is will his rally be as effective at the ten furlongs of the Kentucky Derby, if you study his breeding. Judging by the way the horse looks physically, as well as, the way he looks in finishing every one of his career races, my guess is that the answer will be yes, making him the horse to beat at Churchill Downs. The 4 post does worry me some, I’m afraid and positive he will get shuffled around and bumped a bit. He's going to have a hard time weaving through traffic, after from predicting he won't have that great of a start. Though he’s convinced me that he is on a mission to wear that garland of red roses and who wouldn’t love seeing a big, bay, elegant, striking colt wearing ‘em? This is my pick to win for sentimental reasons and everything else, he's the total package.
Next four horses will be released during the 9 AM hour... Dullahan, Bodemeister, Rousing Sermon, & Creative Cause
2012 Kentucky Derby Inside Scoop
News From The Coffee Shop has the Inside Scoop on all 20 horses in this year's 138th Run for the Roses this Saturday, May 5th.
STAY TUNED!
| Photo courtesy of 2012 Kentucky Derby |
Once again, our guest columnist, Jordyn Burco has put together a wonderful read with insider details and her picks on which horses could make a push in this year's race. You don't want to miss this... it's her best one yet!
We'll be releasing four horses by post position every two hours, beginning with the 7 o'clock hour!
STAY TUNED!
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Kentucky Derby Feedback
@newscoffeeshop @JordynB27 I really like the derby coverage. Can't wait to read the recap after watching it. -- Jon Blin (@jjbcattleco)
Kentucky Oaks- Part 2
Written by Jordyn Burco
#8. Jemima’s Pearl: One of Bob Baffert’s two charges in this year’s Oaks, Jemima’s Pearl is certainly the lesser known of the two. The distance shouldn't be a huge problem for her.
#9. Believe You Can: Competing for the connections of 2008 Oaks victor Proud Spell, Believe You Can is also by the same sire as the 2008 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly. The distance kind of makes me wonder if she will like it? Her pedigree suggest that 8 furlongs is around her corner, but by looking at her past races 9 furlongs should suit her just fine.
Believe You Can broke her maiden in her second start and followed up that victory with a dominant allowance optional claiming win at Delaware Park. After winning the Tempted Stakes (GIII) at Belmont, she finished a disappointing sixth in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) behind On Fire Baby. At the Fair Grounds this year, Believe You Can galloped to a stakes win ahead of Summer Applause, a fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) behind Summer Applause, and a victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) ahead of Summer Applause.
The Larry Jones trainee has had two works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks, posting a pair of quick five-furlong works. Her final preparation was a blistering five-furlong work on Sunday, in which the official clocking was 58.40, though some timed her in an even faster time. It is a bit worrisome that she completed such a rapid work, but Rachel Alexandra also posted a very quick time before her dominating Oaks win.
Believe You Can is by all means talented, but will need to run the best race of her career to earn the garland of lili, especially against a few other nice fillys will give her a run for her money. No doubt, I do think she’s good enough and I have her in my top 2.
#11. Karlovy Vary: A daughter of the recently deceased, great sire Dynaformer, a win by Karlovy Vary in the Kentucky Oaks would certainly be emotional. Her bloodlines appear to provide her with much stamina and notably, she is a direct descendant of the great mare Bayou.
Karlovy Vary broke her maiden in her second start and following two seventh-place finishes, one of which came in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs behind On Fire Baby, the Alex Campbell homebred won a turf allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream before scoring in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI).
Her final preparation came on Saturday, April 28 at Churchill Downs when she completed five furlongs in 1:01.20, covering the ground well.
Though her only start on dirt was a disappointing finish over the track that she will race on in the Kentucky Oaks, this filly has greatly improved since then and is coming into her own. She certainly will have no problem with the distance, but the race for Karlovy Vary is a matter of whether she has an affinity for the surface or not. A good race by her would not be a shock in the least, but she will have to continue her improvement.
#12. Colonial Empress: The Empire Maker/Pleasant Colony cross this D. Wayne Lukas trainee is bred on hints that she will love a stretch-out in distance. Notably, she is a half-sister to the graded stakes-winning turf horse Pleasant Strike and a direct descendant of the Hall of Fame mare Gallorette.
Interestingly, this filly has only started three times, has never won, and has never competed in anything other than a stakes race. She debuted this February in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn, finishing fourth. Colonial Empress then ran a decent third in the Honeybee Stakes (GIII) at the same Hot Springs track before running last in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).
She has turned in two workouts at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks, her final work coming in a 48.40-second half-mile work.
Colonial Empress appears to be better in the mornings than the afternoons and I would be quite surprised to see her finish at the top in the Oaks.
#13. Amie’s Dini: Though her sire, Bandini, is relatively unknown, he should aid her in the Oaks’ distance of nine furlongs, as he was a grade one winner at that distance. Other fillies in the race suggest that they have better pedigrees, but she will get the distance, with no problem. Only probleAmie’s Dini debuted in a much less flashy way than the other contenders, winning a maiden claiming at Remington Park. Following two good allowance optional claiming performances at Churchill Downs, including a victory, Amie’s Dini made her sophomore debut at Oaklawn Park, finishing a noteworthy second behind the then-undefeated Now I Know in the Dixie Belle Stakes. She then handed Now I Know her first defeat in the other filly’s final race, scoring in the Martha Washington Stakes by 1 ¾ lengths after pressing the pace. Remaining at Oaklawn Park, Amie’s Dini turned in a pair of notable runner-up finishes in graded stakes races, and proved to be clearly second best in those races.
With a win at Churchill Downs already to her credit, Amie’s Dini already has very significant experience at the Louisville, Kentucky track. She has also turned in two works over the dirt surface there in preparation for the Oaks, her final work coming on Saturday, April 28 when she breezed five furlongs in an unimpressive 1:05.40.
Amie’s Dini, though a talented filly, seems to be outclassed in this group.
#8. Jemima’s Pearl: One of Bob Baffert’s two charges in this year’s Oaks, Jemima’s Pearl is certainly the lesser known of the two. The distance shouldn't be a huge problem for her.
The bay filly began her career in Ireland, breaking her maiden in her fourth start. Following a sixth-place finish in the Star Appeal Stakes at Dundalk, the bay filly returned to the country in which she was born. Her United States debut resulted in a nose victory in an allowance optional claiming at Santa Anita, which came before her third-place finish behind stablemate Mamma’s Kimbo and Amie’s Dini in the Fantasy Stakes (GII). Jemima’s Pearl worked in company with leading Derby candidate Bodemeister on Sunday morning at Churchill Downs, serving as the gifted colt’s target for the second week in a row. She was outworked by the colt, but that was likely the plan and Bodemeister is, after all, one of the leading contenders for the Derby. She still turned in a good work, completing five furlongs in 1:00.40.
The Kentucky Oaks will be a tough mission for Jemima’s Pearl and I do not believe she is quite ready for it, despite the fact that she is from a strong pedigree and barn. She has not shown as much as many of the other fillies and appears to be outclassed.
Believe You Can broke her maiden in her second start and followed up that victory with a dominant allowance optional claiming win at Delaware Park. After winning the Tempted Stakes (GIII) at Belmont, she finished a disappointing sixth in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) behind On Fire Baby. At the Fair Grounds this year, Believe You Can galloped to a stakes win ahead of Summer Applause, a fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) behind Summer Applause, and a victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) ahead of Summer Applause.
The Larry Jones trainee has had two works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks, posting a pair of quick five-furlong works. Her final preparation was a blistering five-furlong work on Sunday, in which the official clocking was 58.40, though some timed her in an even faster time. It is a bit worrisome that she completed such a rapid work, but Rachel Alexandra also posted a very quick time before her dominating Oaks win.
Believe You Can is by all means talented, but will need to run the best race of her career to earn the garland of lili, especially against a few other nice fillys will give her a run for her money. No doubt, I do think she’s good enough and I have her in my top 2.
#10. And Why Not: With the same trainer and rider combination as the very gifted Derby contender Union Rags, And Why Not could kick off a tremendous weekend for her connections. I find this filly to have one of the most beautifully knitted pedigrees you could study. Her sire is the brilliant stallion Street Cry, who is the sire of the great Zenyatta, as well as the Derby-winning champion Street Sense and an astounding eleven more group or grade one victors. As if that is not enough stallion power, And Why Not’s broodmare sire is the great A.P. Indy. The bottom side of her pedigree is also full of influential stallions, including Storm Cat, Alydar, and Never Bend. Distance will be no problem.
And Why Not, a $775,000 yearling purchase, debuted in August as a juvenile at Saratoga, dominantly winning a six and one-half-furlong maiden special weight after rallying from off the pace. Following a third-place finish behind fellow Oaks contender Grace Hall in the Spinaway Stakes (GI), And Why Not finished a disappointing sixth over Keeneland’s Polytrack in the Darley Alicibiades Stakes (GI). She rebounded with a runner-up performance behind On Fire Baby – also another Oaks contender – in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs to conclude her juvenile career. And Why Not’s only start this year was an extremely unsatisfactory seventh-place finish in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII) at the end of March.
Despite her uninspiring 2012 racing performance, this Michael Matz trainee has been training well. Her final work for the Oaks at Churchill Downs came on Saturday, April 28, when she posted the fastest of forty-seven works at the four-furlong distance when she completed her breeze in 46.80 seconds.
Though her only start this year was quite discouraging, this regally bred filly is entering the Kentucky Oaks off a string of good works. She faces a tall task in the Run for the Lilies, but Michael Matz has conditioned her well and if she has anything going for her besides her training, it’s her pedigree.
And Why Not, a $775,000 yearling purchase, debuted in August as a juvenile at Saratoga, dominantly winning a six and one-half-furlong maiden special weight after rallying from off the pace. Following a third-place finish behind fellow Oaks contender Grace Hall in the Spinaway Stakes (GI), And Why Not finished a disappointing sixth over Keeneland’s Polytrack in the Darley Alicibiades Stakes (GI). She rebounded with a runner-up performance behind On Fire Baby – also another Oaks contender – in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs to conclude her juvenile career. And Why Not’s only start this year was an extremely unsatisfactory seventh-place finish in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII) at the end of March.
Despite her uninspiring 2012 racing performance, this Michael Matz trainee has been training well. Her final work for the Oaks at Churchill Downs came on Saturday, April 28, when she posted the fastest of forty-seven works at the four-furlong distance when she completed her breeze in 46.80 seconds.
Though her only start this year was quite discouraging, this regally bred filly is entering the Kentucky Oaks off a string of good works. She faces a tall task in the Run for the Lilies, but Michael Matz has conditioned her well and if she has anything going for her besides her training, it’s her pedigree.
Karlovy Vary broke her maiden in her second start and following two seventh-place finishes, one of which came in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs behind On Fire Baby, the Alex Campbell homebred won a turf allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream before scoring in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI).
Her final preparation came on Saturday, April 28 at Churchill Downs when she completed five furlongs in 1:01.20, covering the ground well.
Though her only start on dirt was a disappointing finish over the track that she will race on in the Kentucky Oaks, this filly has greatly improved since then and is coming into her own. She certainly will have no problem with the distance, but the race for Karlovy Vary is a matter of whether she has an affinity for the surface or not. A good race by her would not be a shock in the least, but she will have to continue her improvement.
Interestingly, this filly has only started three times, has never won, and has never competed in anything other than a stakes race. She debuted this February in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn, finishing fourth. Colonial Empress then ran a decent third in the Honeybee Stakes (GIII) at the same Hot Springs track before running last in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).
She has turned in two workouts at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks, her final work coming in a 48.40-second half-mile work.
Colonial Empress appears to be better in the mornings than the afternoons and I would be quite surprised to see her finish at the top in the Oaks.
With a win at Churchill Downs already to her credit, Amie’s Dini already has very significant experience at the Louisville, Kentucky track. She has also turned in two works over the dirt surface there in preparation for the Oaks, her final work coming on Saturday, April 28 when she breezed five furlongs in an unimpressive 1:05.40.
Amie’s Dini, though a talented filly, seems to be outclassed in this group.
#14. Yara: By the relatively unknown stallion Put It Back and out of a daughter of Gilded Time, Yara is not among the most royally bred of Kentucky Oaks entrants. She is, however, a direct descendant of the grade one-winning Reine De Course mare Happy Mood, who produced the granddam of the Canadian Triple Crown-winning and Hall of Fame member With Approval and his Hall of Fame-inducted half-brother, the Belmont Stakes (GI)-winning Touch Gold.
Yara’s first six races formed a pattern: fourth, then first, then fourth, then first, then fourth, and then first. Two of those wins were stakes victories, one of which came in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) over Grace Hall. Following that triumph, Yara broke the pattern by finishing a distant fifth in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII).
Though it’s encouraging that her final work came at Churchill Downs, it was quite a relatively unsatisfactory work. It was a slow final time of 51 seconds flat for a half-mile and she changed leads to the incorrect lead in the stretch. She is not the best work horse, but the final preparation did not help her case in the Oaks.
Yara is an endowed filly, but I don’t think she will win the Kentucky Oaks, as she seems to be outshone by many of her competitors.
Also Eligible:
Yara’s first six races formed a pattern: fourth, then first, then fourth, then first, then fourth, and then first. Two of those wins were stakes victories, one of which came in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) over Grace Hall. Following that triumph, Yara broke the pattern by finishing a distant fifth in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII).
Though it’s encouraging that her final work came at Churchill Downs, it was quite a relatively unsatisfactory work. It was a slow final time of 51 seconds flat for a half-mile and she changed leads to the incorrect lead in the stretch. She is not the best work horse, but the final preparation did not help her case in the Oaks.
Yara is an endowed filly, but I don’t think she will win the Kentucky Oaks, as she seems to be outshone by many of her competitors.
Also Eligible:
#15. Oaks Lily: No other filly is as fittingly named as Oaks Lily, who was clearly named for this race since no name in her immediate family hints at that name. By the multiple graded stakes winner at nine furlongs, Badge of Silver, and out of a half-sister to a multiple stakes victor at one mile or longer, Oaks Lily is confirmed for the nine-furlong distance of the Kentucky Oaks.
Oddly, Oaks Lily is coming off a win in a maiden special weight. In fact, all but one of her starts have come in a maiden special weight. The only race that she has contested in that was not a maiden was the OBS Championship Stakes for fillies in March, in which she finished second. She has only finished in the money in half of her starts.
Her final work came on Friday, April 27 at Churchill Downs – a track at which she finished eleventh in her only start there. She completed a half-mile in 49.40 seconds.
I do not expect for Oaks Lily to perform well in the race for which she is named, as she is outclassed by this group. More than likely, however, she will not draw in.
Oddly, Oaks Lily is coming off a win in a maiden special weight. In fact, all but one of her starts have come in a maiden special weight. The only race that she has contested in that was not a maiden was the OBS Championship Stakes for fillies in March, in which she finished second. She has only finished in the money in half of her starts.
Her final work came on Friday, April 27 at Churchill Downs – a track at which she finished eleventh in her only start there. She completed a half-mile in 49.40 seconds.
I do not expect for Oaks Lily to perform well in the race for which she is named, as she is outclassed by this group. More than likely, however, she will not draw in.
My top selections are Hard Not To Like, Grace Hall and On Fire Baby. Any horse is capable of winning, but I see one of these three winning. I also expect for Summer Applause to run a very good race. Of course, since it is a tough field, I believe horses such as Karlovy Vary, Broadways Alibi, and Eden’s Moon should not be ignored, either. No filly has yet stamped herself at the top of this class, but following the Run for the Lilies, the sophomore fillies picture should be much clearer. And should the winner of the Kentucky Oaks continue to be successful this year, she could very well become the fifth victor of the Oaks to be voted Champion Three-Year-Old Filly since 2007.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Kentucky Oaks- Part 1
Written by Jordyn Burco
Most attention this week is on the Kentucky Derby, which is deemed the greatest race that is contested in the sport of kings. However, the fillies deserve their time in the limelight as well and they get that opportunity on the Friday before the Kentucky Derby in the Kentucky Oaks. The race, like the Run for the Roses, has been run for one hundred thirty-seven consecutive years and allows the victor to celebrate in the same winner’s enclosure reserved solely for only two annual races: the Derby and the Oaks. The winner of the Oaks is rewarded with an ample garland of stunning pink lilies, giving the Kentucky Oaks the nickname “the Run for the Lilies.”
Featured below are all of the fillies slated to run in the 138th running of the Kentucky Oaks (GI), along with descriptions of their pedigrees, racing records, final preparations, and my opinions of them. The fillies are simply listed in post position order.
#1. On Fire Baby: A half-sister to a filly who finished third in the Oaks five years ago in High Heels, On Fire Baby is by Smoke Glacken. Though that sire is most well-known for producing sprinters and milers, he has produced the successful distance runner Persistenly – who defeated Rachel Alexandra in a grade one race at ten furlongs. She is also from the same tail-female line as the grade one-winning runners Cuvee, Pyro, and Paddy O’Prado.
After she impressively broke her maiden at Ellis Park, On Fire Baby took a huge step up in class to finish a good second in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (GI) at the tough Keeneland autumn meet prior to winning two graded stakes races at Churchill Downs, including a dominant victory in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII). She made her sophomore debut against colts, finishing a noteworthy third before she returned to her own gender to win the Fantasy Stakes (GII).
On Fire Baby has worked twice over Churchill Downs – a track at which she is undefeated – in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks. Both works were at the distance of seven furlongs, which I find very significant, as it prepares her for the nine-furlong expanse of the Oaks and keeps her from moving too briskly. Her most current work was a 1:27 flat drill in which she galloped over the Churchill dirt beautifully on the morning of April 27.
Due to her excellent pedigree, obvious racing brilliance, and perfect record at Churchill Downs, On Fire Baby is one of my top selections for the Kentucky Oaks. She faces very stiff competition, most notably Grace Hall, though other fillies pose big threats as well. Though some may not like her draw, I think On Fire Baby should find a very good position if she breaks well and also has the ability to rate off the pace. Her two victories and extra training time at Churchill Downs give her a huge advantage.
#2. Grace Hall: Sired by the Belmont Stakes (GI, 12F)-winning Empire Maker and out of a mare who is sired by Ezzoud, a multiple group one winner at long distances in England, Grace Hall is loaded with stamina and is sure to enjoy a route of ground. Out of a stakes-winning mare in France, Grace Hall is a direct descendant of Kentucky Oaks winner Nellie L.
One of the most accomplished horses in the race, Grace Hall won her first three starts by a combined 10 ½ lengths, including the Spinaway Stakes (GI) at Saratoga. She then finished a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) behind eventual champion My Miss Aurelia to close out her two-year-old campaign. Following a neck defeat by longshot Yara in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream, Grace Hall returned to her winning ways in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII), setting off the pace before coasting to an impressive 6 ½-length victory.
I rather would have seen Grace Hall make her final preparations for the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill, but she has been training at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida instead. Her most recent workout was a 52.10-second five-furlong work and though this time is unspectacular, it must be noted that it came over an off track.
Grace Hall is obviously a very gifted filly that is capable of running with the best. Between her talent and remarkable pedigree, she is one of my top two choices in the Oaks.
#3. Summer Applause: A direct descendant of two Reines De Course Mares, Summer Applause is by rising sire Harlan’s Holiday and out of a half-sister to a graded stakes-winning millionaire. She features inbreeding that has been quite profitable, being inbred to such horses as Northern Dancer and Crimson Saint in her first five generations.
Since her debut, in which she finished sixth, Summer Applause has not finished out-of-the-money. She made her stakes debut this January at the Fair Grounds, pressing the pace before not being able to catch Believe You Can. She then defeated that filly in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) prior to falling just a head short to that rival in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).
The Bret Calhoun trainee has posted two very impressive works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks. Her final work came on April 20 when she posted a five-furlong bullet work in 59.60 seconds.
Summer Applause is bred for, has the racing talent for, and has worked very well for the Kentucky Oaks. I expect her to run a pretty big race.
#5. Hard Not to Like: By the brilliant up-and-coming sire Hard Spun and out of a black-type-winning track record setter at ten furlongs, Hard Not to Like descends from the same dam line as fellow contender Summer Applause, with the most notable name in that tail-female line being Iribelle.
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The Ontario-bred filly, though she has never contested on dirt, has been training on dirt at Payson Park and Woodbine. Her final preparation was a 1:01.60 five-furlong drill at Woodbine.
Despite having never run on dirt, Hard Not to Like’s pedigree suggests she will handle it. I believe we have not seen the best of her yet and though she may not be as ready for the Oaks as some other contenders, I would not be surprised to see her perform very well.
#6. Broadway’s Alibi: By juvenile champion Vindication and out of the stakes winner at sprinting distances, Broadway Gold, Broadway’s Alibi has the breeding of a sprinter or miler. Despite the appearances of horses such as Seeking the Gold, Storm Cat, and the dam of Dialed In in her pedigree, Broadway’s Albi’s bloodlines do not give much hope for her ability to go nine furlongs. Her half-sister, the stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed R Gypsy Gold, despite being by Bernardini, has never been victorious beyond a mile and one-sixteenth.
Nonetheless, Broadway’s Alibi has proved to be among the most brilliant fillies of this group. Her only loss came in her first start, but since then, the Todd Pletcher trainee has been on a tear, winning four races by an astounding combined 32 ¼ lengths, including the Forward Gal Stakes (GII) at seven furlongs and the Comely Stakes (GIII) at one mile. She has set the pace in each of these victories, which may be to her disadvantage in the Oaks.
She made her final preparation at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, completing a half-mile in 48.45. I would have preferred for her to have her last breeze at Churchill Downs.
I believe that the nine-furlong distance may prove to be too much for Broadway’s Alibi, despite the fact that she is absolutely brilliant. Don't get me wrong, because I wouldn’t be surprised to see this filly in the winner's circle. A horse can always outrun their pedigree, and this one right here is set up to be one heck of a sprinting/miler filly.
#7. Sacristy: A daughter of A.P. Indy’s successful son Pulpit and the stakes-placed Christie’s Treasure, Sacristy is a direct descendant of Fool-Me-Not, the dam of the Kentucky Derby-winning champion Foolish Pleasure. She descends from the same tail-female line as the graded stakes-winning sire Valid Expectations – as well as his full siblings, the graded stakes-winning Little Sister and the stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed Littleepectations – and the grade one-winning Purge.
Following two runner-up finishes over the synthetic, Sacristy broke her maiden over the dirt at Churchill Downs in an impressive 6 ¾ lengths to end her two-year-old campaign. Her sophomore debut was a 1 ¾-length victory in the Old Hat Stakes (GIII) at Gulfstream Park. Though her next two starts were losses, they were in-the-money finishes in graded stakes races. However, she was defeated by at least three lengths in both, and in one of those losses, she was trounced by fellow Oaks contender Broadway’s Alibi.
Sacristy made her final preparation for the Oaks on April 27, going seven furlongs in 1:29. I like that she worked a longer distances than most horses, as it readies her for the nine-furlong distance, keeps her fitter, and prevents her from working too briskly.
Sacristy is undeniably gifted, but she may be a bit outclassed here. Nonetheless, a nice performance in the Run for the Lilies would not be shocking.
Featured below are all of the fillies slated to run in the 138th running of the Kentucky Oaks (GI), along with descriptions of their pedigrees, racing records, final preparations, and my opinions of them. The fillies are simply listed in post position order.
After she impressively broke her maiden at Ellis Park, On Fire Baby took a huge step up in class to finish a good second in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (GI) at the tough Keeneland autumn meet prior to winning two graded stakes races at Churchill Downs, including a dominant victory in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII). She made her sophomore debut against colts, finishing a noteworthy third before she returned to her own gender to win the Fantasy Stakes (GII).
On Fire Baby has worked twice over Churchill Downs – a track at which she is undefeated – in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks. Both works were at the distance of seven furlongs, which I find very significant, as it prepares her for the nine-furlong expanse of the Oaks and keeps her from moving too briskly. Her most current work was a 1:27 flat drill in which she galloped over the Churchill dirt beautifully on the morning of April 27.
Due to her excellent pedigree, obvious racing brilliance, and perfect record at Churchill Downs, On Fire Baby is one of my top selections for the Kentucky Oaks. She faces very stiff competition, most notably Grace Hall, though other fillies pose big threats as well. Though some may not like her draw, I think On Fire Baby should find a very good position if she breaks well and also has the ability to rate off the pace. Her two victories and extra training time at Churchill Downs give her a huge advantage.
One of the most accomplished horses in the race, Grace Hall won her first three starts by a combined 10 ½ lengths, including the Spinaway Stakes (GI) at Saratoga. She then finished a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) behind eventual champion My Miss Aurelia to close out her two-year-old campaign. Following a neck defeat by longshot Yara in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) at Gulfstream, Grace Hall returned to her winning ways in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII), setting off the pace before coasting to an impressive 6 ½-length victory.
I rather would have seen Grace Hall make her final preparations for the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill, but she has been training at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida instead. Her most recent workout was a 52.10-second five-furlong work and though this time is unspectacular, it must be noted that it came over an off track.
Grace Hall is obviously a very gifted filly that is capable of running with the best. Between her talent and remarkable pedigree, she is one of my top two choices in the Oaks.
Since her debut, in which she finished sixth, Summer Applause has not finished out-of-the-money. She made her stakes debut this January at the Fair Grounds, pressing the pace before not being able to catch Believe You Can. She then defeated that filly in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) prior to falling just a head short to that rival in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).
The Bret Calhoun trainee has posted two very impressive works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks. Her final work came on April 20 when she posted a five-furlong bullet work in 59.60 seconds.
Summer Applause is bred for, has the racing talent for, and has worked very well for the Kentucky Oaks. I expect her to run a pretty big race.
#4. Eden’s Moon: By the sire of eight grade one victors including herself in Malibu Moon and out of the Giant’s Causeway mare Eden’s Causeway, Eden’s Moon is obviously a nicely bred filly bred for distance. Her second dam is the spectacular Irish-bred Broodmare of the Year North of Eden, the producer of three grade one victors, including the champion Paradise Creek. She is also a direct descendant of the Reine De Course mare Sensibility, who herself is out of a Reine De Course mare. Sensibility is the dam of three stakes performers, including the champion Theatrical.
A lightly raced filly, Eden’s Moon started just once as a two-year-old, finishing second behind the future graded stakes-winning Reneesgotzip in December in a six-furlong maiden special weight over Hollywood Park’s cushion track. The Florida-bred Eden’s Moon landed on my radar with her 11 ½-length maiden victory at Santa Anita in January. Following that dominant win, she led from start to finish to triumph in the Las Virgenes Stakes (GI) before falling short in the Santa Anita Oaks (GI) after pressing the pace.
The day before stablemates Bodemeister and Jemima’s Pearl made their final preparations, Eden’s Moon completed a 1:14-flat six-furlong work at Churchill Downs.
Eden’s Moon is certainly talented, but she will have to be on the top of her game to give trainer Bob Baffert a repeat win in the Kentucky Oaks. Nonetheless, she is among the most endowed in this group.
A lightly raced filly, Eden’s Moon started just once as a two-year-old, finishing second behind the future graded stakes-winning Reneesgotzip in December in a six-furlong maiden special weight over Hollywood Park’s cushion track. The Florida-bred Eden’s Moon landed on my radar with her 11 ½-length maiden victory at Santa Anita in January. Following that dominant win, she led from start to finish to triumph in the Las Virgenes Stakes (GI) before falling short in the Santa Anita Oaks (GI) after pressing the pace.
The day before stablemates Bodemeister and Jemima’s Pearl made their final preparations, Eden’s Moon completed a 1:14-flat six-furlong work at Churchill Downs.
Eden’s Moon is certainly talented, but she will have to be on the top of her game to give trainer Bob Baffert a repeat win in the Kentucky Oaks. Nonetheless, she is among the most endowed in this group.
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The Ontario-bred filly, though she has never contested on dirt, has been training on dirt at Payson Park and Woodbine. Her final preparation was a 1:01.60 five-furlong drill at Woodbine.
Despite having never run on dirt, Hard Not to Like’s pedigree suggests she will handle it. I believe we have not seen the best of her yet and though she may not be as ready for the Oaks as some other contenders, I would not be surprised to see her perform very well.
ing two non-black-type wins over Woodbine’s turf course, Hard Not to Like finished fifth in the Natalma Stakes (GIII) on the same oval before defeating the colt in the Cup and Saucer Stakes at Woodbine. Following a decent fifth-place performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (GII), Hard Not to Like made her sophomore debut in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI) at Keeneland, running a rallying second behind Karlovy Vary.
Nonetheless, Broadway’s Alibi has proved to be among the most brilliant fillies of this group. Her only loss came in her first start, but since then, the Todd Pletcher trainee has been on a tear, winning four races by an astounding combined 32 ¼ lengths, including the Forward Gal Stakes (GII) at seven furlongs and the Comely Stakes (GIII) at one mile. She has set the pace in each of these victories, which may be to her disadvantage in the Oaks.
She made her final preparation at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, completing a half-mile in 48.45. I would have preferred for her to have her last breeze at Churchill Downs.
I believe that the nine-furlong distance may prove to be too much for Broadway’s Alibi, despite the fact that she is absolutely brilliant. Don't get me wrong, because I wouldn’t be surprised to see this filly in the winner's circle. A horse can always outrun their pedigree, and this one right here is set up to be one heck of a sprinting/miler filly.
Sacristy made her final preparation for the Oaks on April 27, going seven furlongs in 1:29. I like that she worked a longer distances than most horses, as it readies her for the nine-furlong distance, keeps her fitter, and prevents her from working too briskly.
Sacristy is undeniably gifted, but she may be a bit outclassed here. Nonetheless, a nice performance in the Run for the Lilies would not be shocking.
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