Friday, May 4, 2012

Kentucky Derby Hopefuls- 1 of 5


Written by Jordyn Burco

This week the Kentucky Derby horses were officially entered and assigned gate positions, which may be the biggest key to a victory in the winner’s circle. Here’s your official derby starters, their gate positions, morning line odds and a summary of what they’re chances are! Welcome to the 2012 Kentucky Derby... anyone in that gate has a chance at winning, as we all know. :) Your winner will most likely be a closer/setting off the pace and whoever has the best trip will win the roses. Godspeed to all the horses racing, and I hope for a safe return for all of them. This may be one of the best Derby fields we have seen in decades. ~Jordyn Burco

1. Daddy Long Legs (30-1) On the one hand you have a horse who already has a nice win at 1 3/16 miles for a trainer Aidan O'Brien, who knows how to get horses ready for big races, and at extended distances. On the other hand you have a horse coming halfway across the world for only his second race of the year, with only one awful race showing up on his dirt form, and with no distance pedigree to speak of. Only huge win was in the UAE Derby, but did he really run against anyone to brag about? He also got the dreadful 1 post, so I’m thinking throw this one out. The last horse to win from the 1 post was in 1986 with Ferdinand.

2. Optimizer (50-1) The most notable thing about this horse is probably his hall of fame trainer, D. Wayne Lucas. Lucas has won 4 Kentucky Derby’s. He’s a very notable, respectable trainer. This is a late addition to the derby, as a few days ago Mark Veleski was taken out. Optimizer is not meant for the derby, looking at past records and pedigrees, it suggest that he’s a synthetic/turf specialist. In his four career starts this year he's been 9th, 6th, 2nd and 9th. There have actually been 9 winners to win in the 2 hole, but the last one was the triple crown winner Affirmed in 1978. Anything is possible in the derby and most of the time it’s not a bad decision putting money on a long shot, but I would stay clear from this one. Not enough upside on this one to convince me he will be in the winner's circle.


3. Take Charge Indy (15-1) BO-RAIL! Yup, thats right this horse is being rode by many favorites--Calvin Borel. I really do ask myself why I don’t like this horse more? He's got the best breeding in the field, had a fantastic win in the Florida Derby and is ridden by Calvin, who knows how to get the perfect trip. I guess I see those series of losses before the Florida Derby, and think he is just not quite at the top of this class. If that win had been more dynamic, I probably would hold a different outlook, but with the track bias, moderate pace, and race-riding going on behind him, it struck me as more of a fluke than a horse announcing himself ready to take things to the next level. I sure wouldn’t be the least surprised to see him win though. This horse will most likely be sitting off the pace and will be saving the most ground and will be riding the rail! He’s at a great price, so why not bet on him?

4. Union Rags (9-2) - What’s they’re not to like about this horse? Hard to not have him on your top 3 contenders. This Dixie Union-Tempo, by Gone West colt is trained by 2006 Kentucky Derby winning Trainer Michael Matz, and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Toss his Florida Derby performance right out the window please. His 3rd place finish, may even lower his odds, which will make the betters happy. Well, maybe not a complete toss, as it should have given him the seasoning he will need to run a big race Saturday. With his horrible trip in the Florida Derby, I believe he left a lot more in the tank for derby day and gained a bag of lessons  that will be helpful on Saturday. Matz couldn’t be anymore happier with his colt, and will be at his peak. As consistent and impressive as anyone in this crop, the only question I have left, is will his rally be as effective at the ten furlongs of the Kentucky Derby, if you study his breeding. Judging by the way the horse looks physically, as well as, the way he looks in finishing every one of his career races, my guess is that the answer will be yes, making him the horse to beat at Churchill Downs. The 4 post does worry me some, I’m afraid and positive he will get shuffled around and bumped a bit. He's going to have a hard time weaving through traffic, after from predicting he won't have that great of a start. Though he’s convinced me that he is on a mission to wear that garland of red roses and who wouldn’t love seeing a big, bay, elegant, striking colt wearing ‘em? This is my pick to win for sentimental reasons and everything else, he's the total package.


Next four horses will be released during the 9 AM hour... Dullahan, Bodemeister, Rousing Sermon, & Creative Cause

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