Heartland Simmental Sale

Mike Sorensen (@LivestockPlus) tweeted at 9:17 PM on Sat, Apr 27, 2013: Heartland Simmental and the Lynch Family, sold 47 Simmy bulls @ 3664, 6 Angus bulls @ 2528, prs ave 2235, Breds ave 1780 unofficial

From Adam White- Buchanan County, IA

Soil temp 51 degrees

Farming in Eastern IA Underway

Iowa Corn Tweet: Sunshine and blue skies make IA corn farmers smile today. #planting2013 #readyalready

Corn Planting Date: When Is The Best time? by Stu Ellis .........this Message is a recent post selected from the Farms.com website

 

Stu Ellis: Corn Planting Date: When Is The Best time?

By Stu Ellis Farmgateblog Your seed corn is piled on pallets in the machine shed; your soil is cold and wet, and it is April 25.  But the weather forecast gives little chance of getting into the field for another week.  Your herbicide applicator has yet to show up and you have to wait for him. You are faunching at the bit because it is getting late and Dad always said to start planting in April. Your spouse is tired of your griping, and your blood pressure and stress are just about to get you admitted as a cardiac patient.  We have a tip for you: erase your concerns about the calendar and planting date.  There is nothing magic about planting corn in April. Bob Nielsen calls planting date a “conundrum,” sort of like a riddle, a puzzle, an enigma, or a mystery.  Nielsen is a corn production specialist at Purdue University and suggests you take conventional wisdom with a grain of salt.  In his analysis of planting dates, Nielsen says very little corn was planted anywhere by April 21, but that is of little concern because only a relatively small percentage of acreage is planted by that date.  Rhetorically, he asks, “What are the consequences of a delayed start to planting? How important a predictor of statewide corn yield is planting date anyway?  Does late planting in and of itself guarantee lower than normal yields?  Good questions, but the effect of planting date on statewide average corn yield is not clear cut.”  “Really,” you say! Nielsen says over the past 20 years there has not been a strong relationship between the planting date and the statewide yield in Indiana.  And you can extrapolate that analysis to your state as well.  He says planting date is only one of many “yield influencing factors” and it represents only 22% to 24% of the yield variability.  Nielsen acknowledges that the potential for yield declines after May 1 by 0.3% per day in early May and by 1% per day in late May.  But he quickly adds, “Yield potential goes down with delayed planting because of a number of factors, including a shorter growing season, greater insect & disease pressure, and higher risk of hot, dry conditions during pollination.” What Nielsen would like you to do to ease your concern about the necessity of planting in April is take the other yield influencing factors and group them together in a way they would create the maximum possible yield for the year on the optimum planting date.  He says that might be 220 bushels per acre; or it could be 150 bushels per acre.  A 10 day delay beyond the first of May would have an impact of 10 multiplied by 0.3% per day decrease in yield. Applied to the 220 bushel yield would be 213 bushels per acre.  Applied to the 150 bushel yield would be 146 bushels per acre. It is quite possible that the 146 bushel yield could occur when corn was planted in a given year on May 10, and the 214 bushel per acre yield could occur when the corn was planted the following year, on May 15.  In this case, a larger yield was generated at a later planting date.  Nielsen says, “A delayed planting of corn in an otherwise high yielding year may still be higher yielding than a crop planted on the optimum planting date in an otherwise lower yielding year. Farmers know this to be true because some have had June-planted crops in recent years that ultimately yielded better than any crop they have ever had.............. because the remainder of the growing season following the delayed planting was exceptional.” He says look at 2009 and 2012.  2012 corn was planted early and yielded much less than the 2009 corn which was planted late, all because of the yield influencing factors other than the planting date. Summary: Since planting date is only one of several yield-influencing factors, the date for planting corn has a much more minor impact than believed by many corn growers. Planting corn after May 1 may lead to lower corn yields; however that is only 23% of the determinant. It is quite possible for later planted corn to out-yield earlier planted corn. Source : Farmgateblog

 

From Adam White- Buchanan County, IA

Soil temp 47 degrees at 10a.

Morel Mushrooms Popping

Crystal Blin- Twitter

@ChipFlory there was corn that went in the ground just north of Independence, Iowa today #plant13

Chip Flory- Twitter

Hard to believe, but I saw some anhydrous going down on some super-sandy ground just north of Cedar Falls IA this evening. #pfnews

ECI COOP: Jesup, IA Addition

A new soybean facility in Jesup at the Ag Center begins this spring. We plan to be ready for harvest this Fall to handle beans @ 15k bph.

Breaking: Rowley Equipment & Hub City Implement For Sale

Two Eastern Iowa John Deere stores are apparently on the auction block. Rowley Equipment near Rowley, IA and Hub City Implement located in Oelwien, IA are reportedly for sale to the highest bidder according to sources. It is believed that Bodensteiner Implement Company based in Elkader, IA along with the Oklahoma based conglomerate P & K Midwest will likely make offers to purchase the locations.

China Purchases US Sorghum

Kevin Roepke (@Maizstro) tweeted at 10:56 AM on Thu, Apr 25, 2013: BREAKING: First EVER sizable Chinese purchase of US #sorghum. 55,000 MT of old crop (2.1 million bushels) #DayForTheRecordBooks

From Jason Orr- Buchanan County, IA

Soil temp this morning is 39 degrees. We got a ways to go yet!

Humor

Knutson Farms (@KnutsonFarms) tweeted at 7:01 AM on Thu, Apr 25, 2013: "One must know when to buy, when to sell, and when to stay out of the market" - Roy W. Longstreet

Dinner Time

Billy Fennelly (@BillyFennelly) tweeted at 6:20 PM  Very nice of the AGR fraternity of Iowa State to have our @CycloneWBB over for dinner tonight! These guys eat GOOD! #CycloneFamily

Who's Your Top Pick?? Kentucky Derby!

Who's your top pick?

(Not all 20 horses are shown)

10 Days Away! (Derby Fever)

2013 #KyDerby Coverage by

Jordyn Burco

 

Whats 10 days away? The Kentucky Derby is! I hope you got your fancy hats and your parties already planned for this grand event! I, Jordyn Burco (I know Pete through showing cattle, also we are from the same town) will be attending this years Kentucky Derby and Oaks! I leave a week from now, and get their around noon. Very excited, its always been a dream of mine! I plan to attend Dawn at the Downs, Thursday morning, Ferdinand's Ball (Thursday night), and then the big races! I can't believe I get to be a part of history, and the most famous (or fastest 2 minutes in sports) race in the world! The only thing that has bummed me out about it this year, is they are tighter on security. So, now I'm not allowed to bring my Cannon Mark II onto the grounds on either the Derby day or Oaks day. I still will bring a smaller camera, but It's to bad that I cant take better photos. Though, on Thursday I believe I can still bring my 'big' camera to the workouts and barn's! I'm glad they are tightening up on security, but the cameras are no threat. It will still be a fantastic time, and one of the best times of my life! I haven't even gone, but I know I will never forget them moments!

So, on Monday I will be relishing details about each individual Derby and Oaks horse. I will tell you right now, that this years Kentucky Derby and Oaks is one of the strongest fields in the last decade. Choosing the winner or your super-fecta is going to be super tough this year. Crazy money is put into pools for the Derby, making the payouts incredibly huge! It's defiantly one of the best opportunities to bet! First off, horses are always hard to predict on what there going to do. The favorite may be the best horse, but he may get a horrible trip and it just may not be his day for example. A lot of times the best horse doesn't win the Derby, except last year's winner I'll Have Another and 2011 winner, Animal Kingdom proved themselves later on that they were the real deal. I will not release my picks in order until late Wednesday or Thursday. This is, because post positions are drawn on Wednesday. This is a huge key to handicapping these races, each horse needs a certain post, and if they are put in 20 hole, or 1 hole, well they will need all the luck they can get. I say this because, some horses are stalkers, mid packer's, closer's or are on the lead, and each type needs a certain post number. First off, they need to have a perfect break, if they don't break fast enough, then its over for them. They may also get squeezed, like Union Rags last year and get pushed back (the start was over for him). So, if a stalker wants the perfect post positioned, there going to want to get somewhere in the middle, so they can get out fast enough and be on the outside, so they don't get boxed in. They also say that you don't want to be to far out, because then your loosing ground and energy. Another example, is that closer's don't matter as much what post position they get, because they like to sit back anyways by themselves or with another horse or two. Then, when the time is right, they will try to weave their way around traffic and try to win from way back. That's why most of the time shown through history, that mid packer's and stalkers win the Derby.



Follow Jordyn on Twitter @BurcoPhotograph



You then will ask yourself, who's going to get the 1 1/4 distance? None of these horses have ever ran at this distance before. So, how do you figure out who can run all day? You take a look at their pedigree. There are quite a few that suggest the distance should not be a problem. Sometimes, horses can outrun their pedigree's, like Secretariat. Everyone should know him! He was told that he wouldn't win the Derby because he had distance limitations. His pedigree suggested that he was a miler/ 1 1/16 horse. He obviously out ran everyone in the Derby, and then demolished the Belmont by 30 some lengths. The Belmont is actually ran at 1 1/2 miles, even longer then the Derby. When I post a preview of each horse, I will talk about their pedigree and running style, and if they are capable of that distance.

Another factor is the time and fractions of the race. Some horses want a slow pace, while others want fast, such as closer's. If a horse who has the lead and has pedigree to win the Derby gets untested by any other horse, and is on the lead by himself...watch out for him. If this happens this year, which I doubt, but anyway he will be super tough to beat. If a horse gets the lead all by himself, he is the controller of the race's pace, so he will slow the pace down, so hes not cooked. If another horse or two come up though to challenge him, then the past will be blazing. This will most likely 90% of the time burn these horses out, setting the race up perfect for mid-pack horses and closer's.

Another key is class and seasoning We want a horse that has started at least twice at two and preferably won or at least been competitive in stakes races at that age. The horse must also have started at least three times at three and won a stakes race. Ten of the last 20 Derby winners won a stake at two and 16 of the last 20 Derby winners won a stakes race at three. Even if they weren't a superstar as a 2 year old, its still a bonus if they have that background foundation with more experience. This year, one of my favorites Orb, raced a few times as a 2 year old, but had gate issues and was immature, but not now. But, anyway, he raced a few times as a 2 year old, and wasn't on to many peoples radar's, he won his last outing in 2012, but was a 2nd/3rd last times. So, just as long as they have raced as a 2 year old, they should be deeply considered. A strong showing at a mile and an eighth at some point prior to the Derby is a must. Nineteen of the last 20 Derby winners have had run a good race at a mile and an eighth prior to the Derby. When horses go beyond a mile and a sixteenth, distance limitations really start to show up.

Don't pick the favorite. I could not stress this enough. Rarely ever has a favorite won the race. Most of the time they are around 10-1 who win, or higher. Look for the 'Wise Guy's horse, which I will tell on my derby profiles next week. You can still bet on the favorite, which will probably be Verrazano, but I will be looking elsewhere. I believe he's going to finish well, but distance may be an issue. There's to many questions about him for me, plus he never ran as a 2 year old. Horses within 1-3 lengths of the leaders win more than their share at the Derby, but often move too early on the pacesetters and end up battling through part of the final turn and into the stretch, tiring late and setting the race up for ralliers and deep closer's. I'll be using a long-shot deep closer's and rally types on the majority of my super-fecta tickets.


 Many handicappers and reporters jump all over horses that are working well during Derby week, but the opposite approach may be better. After all, you have 20 of the best 3-year-old thoroughbreds on the planet gathered in one place. How would you expect them to work? A better handicapping angle that can help you separate the contenders from the pretenders is horses that are not working well or not working at all. Many horses cannot handle the heavy training and racing grind prior to the Derby and start to go off form. This can show up at Churchill Downs in the form of dull works or no works prior to the big race. It’s a tough beat getting to the Derby, and even tougher to get through the Triple Crown races. Watch closely for horses that are going off form and throw them out. Horses that always work moderately will be fine continuing to work that way during Derby week, but horses that generally work fast who all of a sudden start working slow, could be trying to tell you something. Clocker’s reports are generally decent indicators of poor works and are worth following. They sometimes not only provide the quality of the works, but also some insights into a horse’s general physical condition. A horse that works average but looks great on the track - dappled and in good flesh - could be in prime shape and ready to run the race of a lifetime. Look for a solid work or breeze of five or six furlongs before the Derby, with a four furlong work being acceptable if the horse has a sharp trainer, is in good form and is proven at route.


Horses don’t need to win their final prep race to win the Kentucky Derby, but they do need to run well. They are continually moving up in class prior to the Derby and their final preps often represent yet another new class level. Many horses need a race at a new class level before being able to win, and a big race on the raise is often a sign of an impending good race, especially among 3-year-old males. Any horse that can get within four lengths in a key prep race for the Derby deserves a second look, especially if the horse made a bid to win the race. A decent late rally to get within four lengths in an important prep could mean the horse is perfectly suited to the longer distance of the Derby. Not only might the horse have a chance to win, but they can fill out one of your superfecta slots. Even better is a horse that makes a strong stretch bid to win their prep race, only to tire late. These genuine types are sometimes overlooked in the betting and can improve on Derby day.


You won’t want to bet a Derby horse to win unless a top jockey is aboard. Jockeys riding for the first time in the Derby are often overwhelmed by the magnitude of the race and the size of the field. I'll be looking for a well established “A” circuit rider on our key horse or at the very least an exceptional rider from the “B” level track. The same goes for trainers. Rookie trainers (and even veterans) have a difficult time with the Derby pressure and seem to make uncharacteristic mistakes. I always hope my top selection on form has a trainer who has conditioned a horse to win or run in the money in a previous Derby or at least has a very good win percentage in stakes races – preferably graded route stakes.

Something else you may like to consider looking at, is have any of these horses raced at Churchill Downs? Many famous horses have won the last two triple crown races, and gone onto be superstars but showed up short in the Derby. Quite a few horses don't care for Churchill downs surface, it is dirt, but there's something about it that has thrown bad luck. So, if a derby horse has raced at Churchill before, has the pedigree, and class and has won at Churchill then they may be a big bonus to looking at.

I hope this information was helpful in handicapping  I wish you all the best of luck, and god speed to the horses for a safe race!

- Jordyn Burco

Wrong Day to Haul Corn

Picked the wrong day to haul corn...from Scott Hingtgen Jackson County, IA

Ky Derby- Twitter

Burco Photography (@BurcoPhotograph) tweeted at 8:26 AM on Wed, Apr 24, 2013: At this time in a week, I will be on a plane headed to #Kentucky #KentuckyDerby #KentuckyOaks #runfortheroses

Shannon Family Farm Land Auction - Fayette County, IA

From Larry Norman- Hardin County, IA

Frosted Wheat- Twitter

Tyson Pet Products Plans Expansion of Independence Plant

Tyson Pet Products Plans Expansion of Independence Plant
http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/Tyson-Pet-Products-Plans-Expansion-of-Independence-Plant--204327041.html

Attention Mushroom Fans

Illinois Corn Planting Progress

Early Planted Corn- Twitter

Crop Progress Reaction- Twitter

Ready to Rip it up!

From Neal & Austin Siela- Benton County, IA

Planting Conditions in IL- Twitter

Bradford Forkner ‏@BradForkner

Since April 5, we have collected 112 GDD at Champaign, 85 at Peoria, and 55 at Dekalb. Soil temp <40 north of Peoria

2013 Kentucky Derby Coverage Calendar

I.                Monday, April 29^th

1.1         Part 1 of 5- Getting to know your KY Derby Horses

II.             Tuesday, April 30^th

1.2         Part 2 of 5- Getting to know your KY Derby Horses

III.           Wednesday, May 1^st

1.3         Part 3 of 5- Getting to know your KY Derby Horses

1.4         Live coverage from Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

1.5         Coverage includes pictures, horse updates, insider scoop

IV.           Thursday, May 2^nd

1.6         Part 4 of 5- Getting to know your KY Derby Horses

1.7         Part 1 of 2- Getting to know your KY Oaks Horses

1.8         Live coverage from Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

1.9         Coverage includes pictures, horse updates, insider scoop

V.              Friday, May 3^rd

1.10      Part 5 of 5- Getting to know your KY Derby Horses

1.11      Part 2 of 2- Getting to know your KY Oaks Horses

1.12      Live coverage of KY Oaks Race at Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

1.13      Coverage includes pictures, horse updates, insider scoop, results, sights & sounds of race day

VI.           Saturday, May 4^th

1.14      Live coverage of KY Derby Race at Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

1.15      Coverage includes pictures, horse updates, insider scoop, results, sights & sounds of race day

Kentucky Derby Workouts April 21st

2013 #KyDerby Coverage by

Jordyn Burco

Here's the list of Kentucky Derby horses workouts on April 21st.

It was a busy workout morning Sunday for Kentucky Derby and Oaks contenders at Churchill.  Verrazano, the unbeaten Wood Memorial winner, worked five-eighths of a mile in 1:00 1/5 in company with stablemate Authenticity. Verrazano’s clocking was third-fastest of 40 at the distance. He was ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, who rides Oxbow in the Derby. 

Will Take Charge had the only mile work of the morning, going in 1:41 3/5 under jockey Jon Court and in company of a stablemate. 

Calvin Borel rode his newly assigned Derby horse, Revolutionary, for the first time, going four furlongs in 48.8 seconds. The workout pleased both jockey and Pletcher. “Beautiful,” Borel said of the Louisiana Derby winner’s work. “He did everything right, worked good, galloped out good, just what (Pletcher) wanted. Couldn’t ask for no better.” 

Revolutionary working

Normandy Invasion worked four furlongs in 48.4 seconds under exercise rider Javier Herrera. (Shown bellow)

Mylute surprised a lot of people with his half-mile in 47 4/5-second move, which was second-fastest of 81 works at the distance Sunday. He's known to be a lazy work horse, but he certainly was not Sunday. 

Florida Derby winner Orb worked five-eighths of a mile over Payson Park’s deep training surface in 1:02 1/5, galloping out six furlongs in 1:14 4/5. He was clocked the last quarter-mile in a lively 23 4/5 seconds. 

From: Scott Hingtgen- Jackson County, IA

East Central Iowa: Over 8" of rain the last 11 days. By my completely unofficial records, that is more than all of 2012. Forecast calls for showers for the next 7 days with no warm up in site. The highest temp. predicted is 62F.

 

December Corn Heading Lower?- Twitter

Tony Rohrs ‏@TonyRohrs

$5.30 has shown some recent support in cz but i say let's test out the 4-1 $5.25 low. #corn

Twitter Updates for #KyDerby

Follow @BurcoPhotograph for the latest local

2013 Kentucky Derby Insider Knowledge

Also consider:

@kentuckyderby

@midnightlute - Bob Baffert
#KyDerby
#KyOaks

Marketing Thought- Twitter

Doug Bartlett ‏@Grainmonster

The spread action alone will not shake loose cash grain supplies - keep dreaming if you wish...