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Rudolphi's Burning- December '12

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News From The Coffee Shop

December 17, 2012 1:03 PM

In the Rearview Mirror

The old adage is that hindsight is 20/20.  In farming there are many opportunities to look back and say to ourselves “If only”.  “If only I would have sold!”.… “If only I would have waited”…. “If only I had back the money I sent the TV preacher who was screwin’ the hockey player!” (Name that movie and I’ll give you a nickel)

 On the other hand, there is always enough work to be done, and enough plates to keep spinning that it is many times easier to just shrug off our bad decisions and continue plowing forward in a hurry to make more of them.  I believe that it is important for all operations and producers to take a little time to sit down and really analyze what is working for them, what is not, and the reasons why. 

I am not suggesting that you sit around and dwell on the past, agonizing over missed details and getting yourself into the kind of depressed state that only a 3 day bender can cure, (by all means you don’t need an excuse to go on a 3 day bender!).  But rather take a hard analytical look at what went right, what went wrong, and how you can position yourself and your operation to do more things right in the upcoming year.

2012 in Review

To provide some food for thought, here is 2012 as I remember it.  Perhaps other events and milestones stick out in your mind, and that is great.  Feel free to share a few in the “Comments” section.

January— It wasn’t very cold, actually unseasonably warm.  Not very snowy or icy either.  The old crop markets were staging a rebound off of their fall lows and gaining speed due to dry conditions in South America.  All in all spirits were pretty high coming off a good crop with good prices in 2011.

February— During the month we established the crop insurance guarantees.  $5.68 for corn, $12.55 for soybeans.  Both of which looked “Ok at best”, coming off of some of the prices received throughout the 2011 crop year, these seemed fairly mundane. 

March— The news was released that farmers that the intentions of planting 96 million acres of corn.  The new crop bulls were put out to pasture almost immediately in anticipation for a record corn crop.  Livestock producers’ mouths began to water a little bit, while there was a little uneasiness amongst the row crop community.

April— By and large a really nice month in which a lot of work got done.

May— Just a continuation of April.  Mid-late May, Iowa really looked good, work was completed in a very timely fashion, and the crop was off to the races.  The first article of “Rudolphi’s Burning” was released, which will prove to be a valuable source of information and entertainment for many in the months to come.

June— We lost our dear friend Mark Pearson and it all kind of went downhill from there.  The rains became increasingly scarce.  We started to observe a few symptoms of dry weather that we had not seen in many years.  Symptoms such as weeds escaping soil applied herbicide due to insufficient moisture for recharge; even glyphos treatment took a long time to take effect because the plants were in such a defensive mode.  The hog markets rallied, the basis exploded, and despite corn inching upward, it was an enjoyable time for people selling pigs.

July— The water shut off for good.  Across Iowa we had an extreme case of the “haves and have-nots” as there were pockets that received lucky showers, and other that just watched their crops wither away.  Farmers begin to alter their production plans, cancelling planned fungicide and insecticide applications, content to just live to fight another day. Prices and basis levels for both old and new crops begin to climb higher and are on the brink of all time records.

August— Rains return and the air cools down providing some much needed relief.  For the soybeans this is just what the doctor ordered.  Most people are under the belief that the corn is toast and that the rains are just too little, too late.  Corn climbs to $8.00 and stays there for a little while.  Anyone with old crop corn or soybeans to sell is receiving record cash prices.

September—The combines begin to roll.  Some are pleasantly surprised, others just as they predicted.  Yields and outcomes are variable from field to field.  The election heat really starts to turn up.

October—Harvest continues at the fastest pace on record.  Yields remain fairly spotty, and the growing sentiment is that “It isn’t as bad as we thought”.  Sandy hits the east coast, wreaking some havoc in the market place.  We all watch on TV as a resilient group of people begin to piece everything back together after a natural disaster.

November—Harvest wraps up, the election takes place.  For many the harvest outcome is better than that of the election.  For the most part the markets are stagnant.  While the markets are at very high historical levels, they seem boring and in need of some fresh news. 

December— The legislators and the President continue to bicker, go round and round, and seem to get nothing accomplished.  They seem to forget that their decisions actually do have significant impacts on the planning of the businesses that run the economy.  We find ourselves discussing, worrying, and complaining about what might be the outcome of all of the last minute rhetoric.  

And then the unthinkable happens; some big time loser with his mom’s guns does some really horrible stuff.  We are forced to take a step back and realize just how easy it is to get caught up in our day to day battles and lose sight of just how bad things and people can be.  Nobody in that classroom really cared about the fiscal cliff, tax policies, weather patterns, or the price of corn. 

As you are sitting down to analyze and review what is working, and what could be working for your operation, please don’t forget to think about who is important in your life and livelihood. 

Make sure they know just how important they are.

Editor's Note:
Rob Rudolphi resides in Eastern Iowa with his lovely wife Tara, where he is involved in several agricultural businesses. They currently have no kids, no dogs, and certainly no cats, and are generally up for anything involving a good time!

The mission of the column is to advocate agriculture, entertain (provided that you are entertainable), serve as a catalyst for critical thinking, and challenge the status quo amongst the agricultural community.

If you have a idea that would make a good "Burn Topic" for next month's Rudolphi's Burning column, please email the idea to prburmeister@gmail.com All entries will remain anonymous.