Written by Jordyn Burco
#8. Jemima’s Pearl: One of Bob Baffert’s two charges in this year’s Oaks, Jemima’s Pearl is certainly the lesser known of the two. The distance shouldn't be a huge problem for her.
#9. Believe You Can: Competing for the connections of 2008 Oaks victor Proud Spell, Believe You Can is also by the same sire as the 2008 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly. The distance kind of makes me wonder if she will like it? Her pedigree suggest that 8 furlongs is around her corner, but by looking at her past races 9 furlongs should suit her just fine.
Believe You Can broke her maiden in her second start and followed up that victory with a dominant allowance optional claiming win at Delaware Park. After winning the Tempted Stakes (GIII) at Belmont, she finished a disappointing sixth in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) behind On Fire Baby. At the Fair Grounds this year, Believe You Can galloped to a stakes win ahead of Summer Applause, a fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) behind Summer Applause, and a victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) ahead of Summer Applause.
The Larry Jones trainee has had two works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks, posting a pair of quick five-furlong works. Her final preparation was a blistering five-furlong work on Sunday, in which the official clocking was 58.40, though some timed her in an even faster time. It is a bit worrisome that she completed such a rapid work, but Rachel Alexandra also posted a very quick time before her dominating Oaks win.
Believe You Can is by all means talented, but will need to run the best race of her career to earn the garland of lili, especially against a few other nice fillys will give her a run for her money. No doubt, I do think she’s good enough and I have her in my top 2.
#11. Karlovy Vary: A daughter of the recently deceased, great sire Dynaformer, a win by Karlovy Vary in the Kentucky Oaks would certainly be emotional. Her bloodlines appear to provide her with much stamina and notably, she is a direct descendant of the great mare Bayou.
Karlovy Vary broke her maiden in her second start and following two seventh-place finishes, one of which came in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs behind On Fire Baby, the Alex Campbell homebred won a turf allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream before scoring in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI).
Her final preparation came on Saturday, April 28 at Churchill Downs when she completed five furlongs in 1:01.20, covering the ground well.
Though her only start on dirt was a disappointing finish over the track that she will race on in the Kentucky Oaks, this filly has greatly improved since then and is coming into her own. She certainly will have no problem with the distance, but the race for Karlovy Vary is a matter of whether she has an affinity for the surface or not. A good race by her would not be a shock in the least, but she will have to continue her improvement.
#12. Colonial Empress: The Empire Maker/Pleasant Colony cross this D. Wayne Lukas trainee is bred on hints that she will love a stretch-out in distance. Notably, she is a half-sister to the graded stakes-winning turf horse Pleasant Strike and a direct descendant of the Hall of Fame mare Gallorette.
Interestingly, this filly has only started three times, has never won, and has never competed in anything other than a stakes race. She debuted this February in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn, finishing fourth. Colonial Empress then ran a decent third in the Honeybee Stakes (GIII) at the same Hot Springs track before running last in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).
She has turned in two workouts at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks, her final work coming in a 48.40-second half-mile work.
Colonial Empress appears to be better in the mornings than the afternoons and I would be quite surprised to see her finish at the top in the Oaks.
#13. Amie’s Dini: Though her sire, Bandini, is relatively unknown, he should aid her in the Oaks’ distance of nine furlongs, as he was a grade one winner at that distance. Other fillies in the race suggest that they have better pedigrees, but she will get the distance, with no problem. Only probleAmie’s Dini debuted in a much less flashy way than the other contenders, winning a maiden claiming at Remington Park. Following two good allowance optional claiming performances at Churchill Downs, including a victory, Amie’s Dini made her sophomore debut at Oaklawn Park, finishing a noteworthy second behind the then-undefeated Now I Know in the Dixie Belle Stakes. She then handed Now I Know her first defeat in the other filly’s final race, scoring in the Martha Washington Stakes by 1 ¾ lengths after pressing the pace. Remaining at Oaklawn Park, Amie’s Dini turned in a pair of notable runner-up finishes in graded stakes races, and proved to be clearly second best in those races.
With a win at Churchill Downs already to her credit, Amie’s Dini already has very significant experience at the Louisville, Kentucky track. She has also turned in two works over the dirt surface there in preparation for the Oaks, her final work coming on Saturday, April 28 when she breezed five furlongs in an unimpressive 1:05.40.
Amie’s Dini, though a talented filly, seems to be outclassed in this group.
#8. Jemima’s Pearl: One of Bob Baffert’s two charges in this year’s Oaks, Jemima’s Pearl is certainly the lesser known of the two. The distance shouldn't be a huge problem for her.
The bay filly began her career in Ireland, breaking her maiden in her fourth start. Following a sixth-place finish in the Star Appeal Stakes at Dundalk, the bay filly returned to the country in which she was born. Her United States debut resulted in a nose victory in an allowance optional claiming at Santa Anita, which came before her third-place finish behind stablemate Mamma’s Kimbo and Amie’s Dini in the Fantasy Stakes (GII). Jemima’s Pearl worked in company with leading Derby candidate Bodemeister on Sunday morning at Churchill Downs, serving as the gifted colt’s target for the second week in a row. She was outworked by the colt, but that was likely the plan and Bodemeister is, after all, one of the leading contenders for the Derby. She still turned in a good work, completing five furlongs in 1:00.40.
The Kentucky Oaks will be a tough mission for Jemima’s Pearl and I do not believe she is quite ready for it, despite the fact that she is from a strong pedigree and barn. She has not shown as much as many of the other fillies and appears to be outclassed.
Believe You Can broke her maiden in her second start and followed up that victory with a dominant allowance optional claiming win at Delaware Park. After winning the Tempted Stakes (GIII) at Belmont, she finished a disappointing sixth in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) behind On Fire Baby. At the Fair Grounds this year, Believe You Can galloped to a stakes win ahead of Summer Applause, a fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GIII) behind Summer Applause, and a victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) ahead of Summer Applause.
The Larry Jones trainee has had two works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Oaks, posting a pair of quick five-furlong works. Her final preparation was a blistering five-furlong work on Sunday, in which the official clocking was 58.40, though some timed her in an even faster time. It is a bit worrisome that she completed such a rapid work, but Rachel Alexandra also posted a very quick time before her dominating Oaks win.
Believe You Can is by all means talented, but will need to run the best race of her career to earn the garland of lili, especially against a few other nice fillys will give her a run for her money. No doubt, I do think she’s good enough and I have her in my top 2.
#10. And Why Not: With the same trainer and rider combination as the very gifted Derby contender Union Rags, And Why Not could kick off a tremendous weekend for her connections. I find this filly to have one of the most beautifully knitted pedigrees you could study. Her sire is the brilliant stallion Street Cry, who is the sire of the great Zenyatta, as well as the Derby-winning champion Street Sense and an astounding eleven more group or grade one victors. As if that is not enough stallion power, And Why Not’s broodmare sire is the great A.P. Indy. The bottom side of her pedigree is also full of influential stallions, including Storm Cat, Alydar, and Never Bend. Distance will be no problem.
And Why Not, a $775,000 yearling purchase, debuted in August as a juvenile at Saratoga, dominantly winning a six and one-half-furlong maiden special weight after rallying from off the pace. Following a third-place finish behind fellow Oaks contender Grace Hall in the Spinaway Stakes (GI), And Why Not finished a disappointing sixth over Keeneland’s Polytrack in the Darley Alicibiades Stakes (GI). She rebounded with a runner-up performance behind On Fire Baby – also another Oaks contender – in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs to conclude her juvenile career. And Why Not’s only start this year was an extremely unsatisfactory seventh-place finish in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII) at the end of March.
Despite her uninspiring 2012 racing performance, this Michael Matz trainee has been training well. Her final work for the Oaks at Churchill Downs came on Saturday, April 28, when she posted the fastest of forty-seven works at the four-furlong distance when she completed her breeze in 46.80 seconds.
Though her only start this year was quite discouraging, this regally bred filly is entering the Kentucky Oaks off a string of good works. She faces a tall task in the Run for the Lilies, but Michael Matz has conditioned her well and if she has anything going for her besides her training, it’s her pedigree.
And Why Not, a $775,000 yearling purchase, debuted in August as a juvenile at Saratoga, dominantly winning a six and one-half-furlong maiden special weight after rallying from off the pace. Following a third-place finish behind fellow Oaks contender Grace Hall in the Spinaway Stakes (GI), And Why Not finished a disappointing sixth over Keeneland’s Polytrack in the Darley Alicibiades Stakes (GI). She rebounded with a runner-up performance behind On Fire Baby – also another Oaks contender – in the Pocahontas Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs to conclude her juvenile career. And Why Not’s only start this year was an extremely unsatisfactory seventh-place finish in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII) at the end of March.
Despite her uninspiring 2012 racing performance, this Michael Matz trainee has been training well. Her final work for the Oaks at Churchill Downs came on Saturday, April 28, when she posted the fastest of forty-seven works at the four-furlong distance when she completed her breeze in 46.80 seconds.
Though her only start this year was quite discouraging, this regally bred filly is entering the Kentucky Oaks off a string of good works. She faces a tall task in the Run for the Lilies, but Michael Matz has conditioned her well and if she has anything going for her besides her training, it’s her pedigree.
Karlovy Vary broke her maiden in her second start and following two seventh-place finishes, one of which came in the Golden Rod Stakes (GII) at Churchill Downs behind On Fire Baby, the Alex Campbell homebred won a turf allowance optional claiming at Gulfstream before scoring in the Central Bank Ashland Stakes (GI).
Her final preparation came on Saturday, April 28 at Churchill Downs when she completed five furlongs in 1:01.20, covering the ground well.
Though her only start on dirt was a disappointing finish over the track that she will race on in the Kentucky Oaks, this filly has greatly improved since then and is coming into her own. She certainly will have no problem with the distance, but the race for Karlovy Vary is a matter of whether she has an affinity for the surface or not. A good race by her would not be a shock in the least, but she will have to continue her improvement.
Interestingly, this filly has only started three times, has never won, and has never competed in anything other than a stakes race. She debuted this February in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn, finishing fourth. Colonial Empress then ran a decent third in the Honeybee Stakes (GIII) at the same Hot Springs track before running last in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).
She has turned in two workouts at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks, her final work coming in a 48.40-second half-mile work.
Colonial Empress appears to be better in the mornings than the afternoons and I would be quite surprised to see her finish at the top in the Oaks.
With a win at Churchill Downs already to her credit, Amie’s Dini already has very significant experience at the Louisville, Kentucky track. She has also turned in two works over the dirt surface there in preparation for the Oaks, her final work coming on Saturday, April 28 when she breezed five furlongs in an unimpressive 1:05.40.
Amie’s Dini, though a talented filly, seems to be outclassed in this group.
#14. Yara: By the relatively unknown stallion Put It Back and out of a daughter of Gilded Time, Yara is not among the most royally bred of Kentucky Oaks entrants. She is, however, a direct descendant of the grade one-winning Reine De Course mare Happy Mood, who produced the granddam of the Canadian Triple Crown-winning and Hall of Fame member With Approval and his Hall of Fame-inducted half-brother, the Belmont Stakes (GI)-winning Touch Gold.
Yara’s first six races formed a pattern: fourth, then first, then fourth, then first, then fourth, and then first. Two of those wins were stakes victories, one of which came in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) over Grace Hall. Following that triumph, Yara broke the pattern by finishing a distant fifth in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII).
Though it’s encouraging that her final work came at Churchill Downs, it was quite a relatively unsatisfactory work. It was a slow final time of 51 seconds flat for a half-mile and she changed leads to the incorrect lead in the stretch. She is not the best work horse, but the final preparation did not help her case in the Oaks.
Yara is an endowed filly, but I don’t think she will win the Kentucky Oaks, as she seems to be outshone by many of her competitors.
Also Eligible:
Yara’s first six races formed a pattern: fourth, then first, then fourth, then first, then fourth, and then first. Two of those wins were stakes victories, one of which came in the Davona Dale Stakes (GII) over Grace Hall. Following that triumph, Yara broke the pattern by finishing a distant fifth in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (GII).
Though it’s encouraging that her final work came at Churchill Downs, it was quite a relatively unsatisfactory work. It was a slow final time of 51 seconds flat for a half-mile and she changed leads to the incorrect lead in the stretch. She is not the best work horse, but the final preparation did not help her case in the Oaks.
Yara is an endowed filly, but I don’t think she will win the Kentucky Oaks, as she seems to be outshone by many of her competitors.
Also Eligible:
#15. Oaks Lily: No other filly is as fittingly named as Oaks Lily, who was clearly named for this race since no name in her immediate family hints at that name. By the multiple graded stakes winner at nine furlongs, Badge of Silver, and out of a half-sister to a multiple stakes victor at one mile or longer, Oaks Lily is confirmed for the nine-furlong distance of the Kentucky Oaks.
Oddly, Oaks Lily is coming off a win in a maiden special weight. In fact, all but one of her starts have come in a maiden special weight. The only race that she has contested in that was not a maiden was the OBS Championship Stakes for fillies in March, in which she finished second. She has only finished in the money in half of her starts.
Her final work came on Friday, April 27 at Churchill Downs – a track at which she finished eleventh in her only start there. She completed a half-mile in 49.40 seconds.
I do not expect for Oaks Lily to perform well in the race for which she is named, as she is outclassed by this group. More than likely, however, she will not draw in.
Oddly, Oaks Lily is coming off a win in a maiden special weight. In fact, all but one of her starts have come in a maiden special weight. The only race that she has contested in that was not a maiden was the OBS Championship Stakes for fillies in March, in which she finished second. She has only finished in the money in half of her starts.
Her final work came on Friday, April 27 at Churchill Downs – a track at which she finished eleventh in her only start there. She completed a half-mile in 49.40 seconds.
I do not expect for Oaks Lily to perform well in the race for which she is named, as she is outclassed by this group. More than likely, however, she will not draw in.
My top selections are Hard Not To Like, Grace Hall and On Fire Baby. Any horse is capable of winning, but I see one of these three winning. I also expect for Summer Applause to run a very good race. Of course, since it is a tough field, I believe horses such as Karlovy Vary, Broadways Alibi, and Eden’s Moon should not be ignored, either. No filly has yet stamped herself at the top of this class, but following the Run for the Lilies, the sophomore fillies picture should be much clearer. And should the winner of the Kentucky Oaks continue to be successful this year, she could very well become the fifth victor of the Oaks to be voted Champion Three-Year-Old Filly since 2007.
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