Kentucky Derby Hopefuls- 5 of 5

By Jordyn Burco

17. Done Talking (50-1) Hamilton Smith trainee– Can a slow horse win the Kentucky Derby? The answer is yes, it's happened before, and it will happen again. One of the things that needs to happen is a pace meltdown, and this year, there is a realistic chance of that taking place with the addition of the sprinter, Trinniberg to the field. The other thing that needs to happen, in order for a slow horse to wear the roses, is to have an overall lack of talent in the field. Unfortunately for Done Talking, I do not think that is true this year. In this field, it's much more likely a solid rally only takes the Illinois Derby winner to sixth or worse. He’s not a complete toss out, he looked good over Churchill, but these are the pro’s so he will have to step up a lot to win.

18. Sabercat (30-1) Just like Daddy Nose Best, this horse may be a “Wise guys horse.” He couldn't be any more ready for the derby, they already knew he had enough earnings when he won the $1 million delta jackpot last fall. Steve Asmussen the trainer, has been preparing this horse for the derby all winter and spring. He’s been an 8th and 3rd this year in graded stakes, which does worry me a tad. I’m not too worried about this gate position at all, should suit him just fine being on the outside. He’s out of Bluegrass Cat who finished 2nd in both the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Travers which are all lengthy races, so the distance will be right up his alley. His broodmare line is also filled with gifted long distance runners. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this one finish in the top 5.

19. I’ll Have Another (12-1)- (Flower Alley-Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Doug O'Neill traine– He backed up his big upset in the Robert Lewis with a fantastic performance in the Santa Anita Derby to narrowly defeat Creative Cause. I'm not ready to place him above that rival, but he proved to me that he has the class to win in 3 1/2 weeks. He is bred to go ten furlongs, and will hit Churchill Downs as one of the most fresh horses in the race, leading me to believe he still may have more room for improvement. That is a scary proposition for the rest of the field. Another scary factor is that he can close like no other, which will be to his advantage in the derby. I really do like this horse, but just not on derby day. Look for him to do better things down the road. Like many others in this field, I wouldn't be surprised to see him win either. It took a lot out of me to not put him in my top 5, but he certainly is close to it. I just think I’ll Have Another pick on derby day.

20. Liaison (50-1) Only two horses have been able to overcome that spot to win the race. The last one was Big Brown in 2008, but he was a far more talented horse than Liaison, nearly winning the Triple Crown.After a successful 2011, Liaison hasn't been able to match that success this year. He hasn't finished in the money in any of his three starts while racing against some of the same horses that will be in the derby. So, it's difficult to find a bright side about his chances.
Just like Optimizer, Liaison would have provided some value with a better post, but isn't worth the risk having to travel from the outside. Find a better long shot.

ALSO ELIGIBLE - My Adonis will be entered if one of the horses above are scratched by 9 A.M. on Friday. A quick note about him if he's entered, he has no chance at all.