10 Days Away! (Derby Fever)

2013 #KyDerby Coverage by

Jordyn Burco

 

Whats 10 days away? The Kentucky Derby is! I hope you got your fancy hats and your parties already planned for this grand event! I, Jordyn Burco (I know Pete through showing cattle, also we are from the same town) will be attending this years Kentucky Derby and Oaks! I leave a week from now, and get their around noon. Very excited, its always been a dream of mine! I plan to attend Dawn at the Downs, Thursday morning, Ferdinand's Ball (Thursday night), and then the big races! I can't believe I get to be a part of history, and the most famous (or fastest 2 minutes in sports) race in the world! The only thing that has bummed me out about it this year, is they are tighter on security. So, now I'm not allowed to bring my Cannon Mark II onto the grounds on either the Derby day or Oaks day. I still will bring a smaller camera, but It's to bad that I cant take better photos. Though, on Thursday I believe I can still bring my 'big' camera to the workouts and barn's! I'm glad they are tightening up on security, but the cameras are no threat. It will still be a fantastic time, and one of the best times of my life! I haven't even gone, but I know I will never forget them moments!

So, on Monday I will be relishing details about each individual Derby and Oaks horse. I will tell you right now, that this years Kentucky Derby and Oaks is one of the strongest fields in the last decade. Choosing the winner or your super-fecta is going to be super tough this year. Crazy money is put into pools for the Derby, making the payouts incredibly huge! It's defiantly one of the best opportunities to bet! First off, horses are always hard to predict on what there going to do. The favorite may be the best horse, but he may get a horrible trip and it just may not be his day for example. A lot of times the best horse doesn't win the Derby, except last year's winner I'll Have Another and 2011 winner, Animal Kingdom proved themselves later on that they were the real deal. I will not release my picks in order until late Wednesday or Thursday. This is, because post positions are drawn on Wednesday. This is a huge key to handicapping these races, each horse needs a certain post, and if they are put in 20 hole, or 1 hole, well they will need all the luck they can get. I say this because, some horses are stalkers, mid packer's, closer's or are on the lead, and each type needs a certain post number. First off, they need to have a perfect break, if they don't break fast enough, then its over for them. They may also get squeezed, like Union Rags last year and get pushed back (the start was over for him). So, if a stalker wants the perfect post positioned, there going to want to get somewhere in the middle, so they can get out fast enough and be on the outside, so they don't get boxed in. They also say that you don't want to be to far out, because then your loosing ground and energy. Another example, is that closer's don't matter as much what post position they get, because they like to sit back anyways by themselves or with another horse or two. Then, when the time is right, they will try to weave their way around traffic and try to win from way back. That's why most of the time shown through history, that mid packer's and stalkers win the Derby.



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You then will ask yourself, who's going to get the 1 1/4 distance? None of these horses have ever ran at this distance before. So, how do you figure out who can run all day? You take a look at their pedigree. There are quite a few that suggest the distance should not be a problem. Sometimes, horses can outrun their pedigree's, like Secretariat. Everyone should know him! He was told that he wouldn't win the Derby because he had distance limitations. His pedigree suggested that he was a miler/ 1 1/16 horse. He obviously out ran everyone in the Derby, and then demolished the Belmont by 30 some lengths. The Belmont is actually ran at 1 1/2 miles, even longer then the Derby. When I post a preview of each horse, I will talk about their pedigree and running style, and if they are capable of that distance.

Another factor is the time and fractions of the race. Some horses want a slow pace, while others want fast, such as closer's. If a horse who has the lead and has pedigree to win the Derby gets untested by any other horse, and is on the lead by himself...watch out for him. If this happens this year, which I doubt, but anyway he will be super tough to beat. If a horse gets the lead all by himself, he is the controller of the race's pace, so he will slow the pace down, so hes not cooked. If another horse or two come up though to challenge him, then the past will be blazing. This will most likely 90% of the time burn these horses out, setting the race up perfect for mid-pack horses and closer's.

Another key is class and seasoning We want a horse that has started at least twice at two and preferably won or at least been competitive in stakes races at that age. The horse must also have started at least three times at three and won a stakes race. Ten of the last 20 Derby winners won a stake at two and 16 of the last 20 Derby winners won a stakes race at three. Even if they weren't a superstar as a 2 year old, its still a bonus if they have that background foundation with more experience. This year, one of my favorites Orb, raced a few times as a 2 year old, but had gate issues and was immature, but not now. But, anyway, he raced a few times as a 2 year old, and wasn't on to many peoples radar's, he won his last outing in 2012, but was a 2nd/3rd last times. So, just as long as they have raced as a 2 year old, they should be deeply considered. A strong showing at a mile and an eighth at some point prior to the Derby is a must. Nineteen of the last 20 Derby winners have had run a good race at a mile and an eighth prior to the Derby. When horses go beyond a mile and a sixteenth, distance limitations really start to show up.

Don't pick the favorite. I could not stress this enough. Rarely ever has a favorite won the race. Most of the time they are around 10-1 who win, or higher. Look for the 'Wise Guy's horse, which I will tell on my derby profiles next week. You can still bet on the favorite, which will probably be Verrazano, but I will be looking elsewhere. I believe he's going to finish well, but distance may be an issue. There's to many questions about him for me, plus he never ran as a 2 year old. Horses within 1-3 lengths of the leaders win more than their share at the Derby, but often move too early on the pacesetters and end up battling through part of the final turn and into the stretch, tiring late and setting the race up for ralliers and deep closer's. I'll be using a long-shot deep closer's and rally types on the majority of my super-fecta tickets.


 Many handicappers and reporters jump all over horses that are working well during Derby week, but the opposite approach may be better. After all, you have 20 of the best 3-year-old thoroughbreds on the planet gathered in one place. How would you expect them to work? A better handicapping angle that can help you separate the contenders from the pretenders is horses that are not working well or not working at all. Many horses cannot handle the heavy training and racing grind prior to the Derby and start to go off form. This can show up at Churchill Downs in the form of dull works or no works prior to the big race. It’s a tough beat getting to the Derby, and even tougher to get through the Triple Crown races. Watch closely for horses that are going off form and throw them out. Horses that always work moderately will be fine continuing to work that way during Derby week, but horses that generally work fast who all of a sudden start working slow, could be trying to tell you something. Clocker’s reports are generally decent indicators of poor works and are worth following. They sometimes not only provide the quality of the works, but also some insights into a horse’s general physical condition. A horse that works average but looks great on the track - dappled and in good flesh - could be in prime shape and ready to run the race of a lifetime. Look for a solid work or breeze of five or six furlongs before the Derby, with a four furlong work being acceptable if the horse has a sharp trainer, is in good form and is proven at route.


Horses don’t need to win their final prep race to win the Kentucky Derby, but they do need to run well. They are continually moving up in class prior to the Derby and their final preps often represent yet another new class level. Many horses need a race at a new class level before being able to win, and a big race on the raise is often a sign of an impending good race, especially among 3-year-old males. Any horse that can get within four lengths in a key prep race for the Derby deserves a second look, especially if the horse made a bid to win the race. A decent late rally to get within four lengths in an important prep could mean the horse is perfectly suited to the longer distance of the Derby. Not only might the horse have a chance to win, but they can fill out one of your superfecta slots. Even better is a horse that makes a strong stretch bid to win their prep race, only to tire late. These genuine types are sometimes overlooked in the betting and can improve on Derby day.


You won’t want to bet a Derby horse to win unless a top jockey is aboard. Jockeys riding for the first time in the Derby are often overwhelmed by the magnitude of the race and the size of the field. I'll be looking for a well established “A” circuit rider on our key horse or at the very least an exceptional rider from the “B” level track. The same goes for trainers. Rookie trainers (and even veterans) have a difficult time with the Derby pressure and seem to make uncharacteristic mistakes. I always hope my top selection on form has a trainer who has conditioned a horse to win or run in the money in a previous Derby or at least has a very good win percentage in stakes races – preferably graded route stakes.

Something else you may like to consider looking at, is have any of these horses raced at Churchill Downs? Many famous horses have won the last two triple crown races, and gone onto be superstars but showed up short in the Derby. Quite a few horses don't care for Churchill downs surface, it is dirt, but there's something about it that has thrown bad luck. So, if a derby horse has raced at Churchill before, has the pedigree, and class and has won at Churchill then they may be a big bonus to looking at.

I hope this information was helpful in handicapping  I wish you all the best of luck, and god speed to the horses for a safe race!

- Jordyn Burco