As Seen on the Kevin Van Trump Report

Sure we might pick up another $0.50 to $0.75 cents on fund repositioning or some other market variables.  But if your waiting on a move to $8.50 or higher by year end you are essentially making a bet on one of three horses that are left in the 2011 Corn Derby:

Horse #1- I will call her "Philly Freeze" - This horse is a winner if temps drop below 28F for any extended period of time during the next three or four weeks.  She is not a come form behind winner, as the longer she waits to make her move in the race, the lower the payout. She needs to make her move early if she is going to pay off. One thing the crowd likes is that when she comes in she generally pays off in a big way, and her jockey is the best in the business (tough to get any better than the big man upstairs).

 Horse #2 - I will call her "Wild Acres" - She is a real beauty, young with very few races under her belt, but she has HUGE potential. If she gets the right start, has the right jockey, and is on a muddy track she could pay off big. Essentially by betting on "Wild Acres" you are thinking the USDA will cut harvested corn acres substantially. For a big pay-off you need a cut of 750,000 plus. With the FSA and USDA riding this youngster anything is possible, they may decide to let her run, or for the betterment of the sport pull her back and shut her down, you just never know.  Definitely untested in the big races. 

Horse #3 - I will call her "Official Ruling" - I have seen this horse run many times through the years, she can often be a crowd favorite early in the race, but in the end very rarely makes it into the winners circle. She is generally the most hyped in the field, but more times than not fails to deliver the big pay-outs.  Some in the racing world even go as far as saying she is on the "take." I wouldn't go that far, I just think the crowd often places the expectations much too high for her to deliver. For this old girl to pay off big you will need to see the yields continue to fall.  I would be inclined to guess the closer we get to 140 bushels per acre the larger the pay-out and the better her chances.  Just remember there is no rhyme or reason to how this horse will run, I have seen the jockey take her out out of the gates strong only to see her ease back later in the race. I have also seen her pour it on down the stretch.  This horse can make you extremely happy and extremely sad all in the same race, so be prepared for anything.  Once again a lot depends on the jockey and the conditions of the track. Just don't count your chickens before they are hatched with this girl still in the race.

In my opinion these are the only three horses left in the 2011 Corn Derby at this juncture.  China buying corn in any big quantity is out of the race; both of the South American horses are out of the race, as they are planting more corn acres and raising their exports as we speak; Russia and Ukraine are out of the race as well on larger than expected supplies; Canada is a scratch, with no real losses to speak of; Ethanol Production and Domestic Feed Usage didn't feel they had enough growth left in the tank to compete and are no real threat to win the race, so they pulled out as well