Am I Right?

Day 2 of the dance and most brackets are FGCU'ed up #AMIRIGHT -- Doug Gottlieb (@GottliebShow)

Leaderboard: Day 1 March Madness Challenge

Rank	Team Name	Score	Correct	Best Score	Best Correct	Champion
1	Kale Petersen	72	14	406	60	Miami (Fla.) (122)
2	Adam White	67	13	330	59	Indiana (125)
3	Jeff Bendull	66	13	381	59	Indiana (120)
4	Calvin Vogel	64	13	414	57	Florida (131)
4	Dustin Snakenberg	64	13	347	57	Kansas (149)
6	Rusty Donnelly	63	13	391	58	Georgetown (98)
7	Pete Burmeister	59	11	400	55	Michigan St. (123)
8	Jon Blin	56	12	338	58	Louisville (148)
8	Rob Rudolphi	56	11	533	56	Louisville (162)
10	Matt Frye	55	12	374	58	Miami (Fla.) (111)

Harvard Statement

America, we are sorry for messing up your brackets and also your financial system and everything else. -- Harvard Lampoon (@harvardlampoon)

NCAA Tournament Leaderboard

Dustin Snakenburg & Kale Peterson lead a star studded field through first half of Day 1 of the News from the Coffee Shop March Madness Challenge.

Both went 8 for 8 on picks thus far.

Rudolphi's Burning: Prepping

Rudolphi's Burning on

News From The Coffee Shop

March 20, 2013 9:39 PM

Prepping

I am going to make reference to two very different areas throughout this month’s article.  Doomsday Preppers and college basketball…try to follow along.

I am sure that most of you have seen or heard about the television show Doomsday Preppers.  If not, the program showcases people and families that have put extensive thought and planning as to their fate should a disaster strike.  Often times they hoard several thousand dollars of imperishable food, weapons, and ammunition.  These reserves are built to nourish their families and protect themselves from the thieving hoards that will undoubtedly be trying to steal their magic bag.

 While watching this TV show two themes quickly become apparent;

1.)    These people are bat shit crazy—(Yes, that is a technical term)

2.)    The showcased people are not taking a “Heaven forbid anything should happen” attitude.  In most cases, they seem hopeful that disaster will strike so that they can have the last laugh and ultimately tell the rest of the world “I told you so.”

My intent is not to discount preparedness, I do believe it is a good idea to have fire escape routes planned, first aid kits readily available, emergency contact numbers posted, and I am a proud gun owner.  However, I do not believe it is necessary to have more rice and pinto beans stored in your basement than is consumed annually in Latin America.

In production agriculture today, there seems to be quite a bit of “Prepperesque” lingo and articles making headlines.  Articles warn that $4 corn is looming on the horizon, consultants are advising producers to protect their downside risk, to prepare for the downturn, to buddy up to their Ag lenders, and to bulletproof their balance sheets.

But really….How bad is it going to get?  How bad can it get?

If we are forced to make sales in the $3-$4 level this marketing year it can only mean one thing….We have a big bunch of corn to sell.  By my arithmetic 225 bushels x $4.00 is still grossing $900/acre.  With inputs lurking in the $800/acre range-depending on land cost, this nets a $100/acre profit.  While it’s a long way from a homerun, the ink is still black.  On top of that, what $4 corn really does well is reignite the enthusiasm of our customers.  Feeders, processors, and importing countries will be much more enthused about our product if they can afford it.  We could actually spark some demand.

So why all the rhetoric about doom and gloom? 

First of all, consultants, advisors, and risk managers are more needed by their customers in times of financial duress than in times of windfall profits, so they are writing articles to spotlight the negative possibilities in hopes of drumming up more chances to prove themselves and their services to the industry.

Secondly, it is simple human nature to want to be right.  As in the Preppers case, they would rather be right than have their neighborhood and families remain safe.  For the consultants, they would rather be right having covered modest profits for their clients amid industry losses, rather than have the entire industry making lots of money rendering their precautionary advice worthless. 

Think about it, if you have ever put on a hedge and shorted the market, haven’t you secretly (or not so secretly) rooted for the market to go down, allowing the trade to go deeper in the money?  I sure as hell have.  Even when I’ve had cash grain left on the table to sell.  Nobody likes their decisions and actions to be proven wrong or unnecessary. 

But what if they’re right?

No doubt, the growing consensus is that we will see a retracement in the Ag economy of some sort.  If Mother Nature cooperates with us and we raise any type of a respectable crop at all, prices are probably going down.  So what will we do to protect our incomes and continue growing our businesses?

In the upcoming weeks, college basketball teams will be competing in the NCAA tournament to vie for the national championship.  The tournament will get crazy, it always does.  Top seeded teams will be eliminated, some teams will barely escape with slim margins of victory, and there will be a Cinderella story come out of nowhere.  At the end of the tournament, it really won’t matter how they got there, how narrow the margins were, or what officials made what calls, at the end of tournament all that is going to matter is who is cutting down the nets.

Think of the upcoming year and challenges in the same context as the NCAA basketball tournament.  Every operation and business has obligations to meet, goals they would like to attain, and a general timeline in which they would like to (or have to) achieve this.  It doesn’t really matter how they achieve this or what they do to get there, as long as it gets done.

To me, that is the real beauty of what goes on out here on the acres.  We find ways to make stuff happen and get stuff done.  Granted, we are always looking for ways to improve, expand, and invest in assets that make our businesses greater and out lives more enjoyable.  But when it comes down to it, there isn’t anyone in the business of farming that has forgotten how to roll up their sleeves, grit their teeth and “just make it work”.  If they have, they could probably use a career change anyway.

My advice, fill out a News from the Coffee Shop Bracket, enjoy the NCAA tournament, and take a little time to think about what might and could happen—both best case and worst case scenario in the upcoming crop year.  If you can find peace of mind somewhere in the middle of that range, relax, get the crop in the ground, and leave the dried food on the shelf at the store.

GO CYCLONES!

Editor's Note:

Rob Rudolphi resides in Eastern Iowa with his lovely wife Tara, where he is involved in several agricultural businesses. They currently have no kids, no dogs, and certainly no cats, and are generally up for anything involving a good time!

The mission of the column is to advocate agriculture, entertain (provided that you are entertainable), serve as a catalyst for critical thinking, and challenge the status quo amongst the agricultural community.

If you have a idea that would make a good "Burn Topic" for next month's Rudolphi's Burning column, please email the idea to prburmeister@gmail.com All entries will remain anonymous.

Join the Coffee Shop March Madness Challenge

You are invited to join our 2013 CBSSports.com Bracket

Manager group! To accept this invitation and join the group,

click the link below (or cut and paste the link into your

browser's address bar). You'll be asked to enter the group

password before you can join, so it is posted below.

http://newsfromthecoffeeshop.mayhem.cbssports.com/e?ttag=13_cbsinv

Our Group password is: agnews1

Registration Details for Bracket Challenge

Test your college basketball knowledge against other News from the Coffee Shop readers in the March Madness Challenge!

Simply follow the link below to the CBS Sports bracket page, sign in with your own username and password, and then use the Coffee Shop Group password listed below to join our group.

Free to enter..... Bragging rights for the winner!

Click HERE for Coffee Shop Bracket Challenge

Our Group password is: agnews1

Global Warming?

where are all the people who talk about global warming at? 8 degrees Fahrenheit for a low tomorrow morning the first day of spring!

From Scott Hingtgen

Prime Farmland Up YOY

The avg. $12,670/ac for prime farmland at the end of 2012 was up 21% for the year -survey by IL Society of Prof Farm Mgrs & Rural Appraisers -- Farmland Network (@FarmlandNetwork)

Time Stamp

Sue Martin of @MarketToMarket thinks new crop corn gap of $7.12 will be filled "by early July of next year." #TimeStamp -- Kevin Roepke (@Maizstro)

Rudolphi's Burning Release

Due to unforseen circumstances, Rudolphi's Burning March Edition release has been postponed to Monday, March 18th.

Please enjoy your weekend and rest assured knowing that Rudolphi will be burning out a new and exciting article over green refreshments the entire weekend.

Thank you for following along and for your interest in this column.

Pete

Sad News

Grain bin accident update: Father and son, Rick and Adam Schneider, die in the Schneider Mill tragedy in Waverly. Details on the @kwwl news -- Ron Steele KWWL (@ronsteelekwwl)

Quick Fact

Hardest time to make money in farming past 100 years was 1983. - Moe Russell -- Iowa Cattlemen (@IAcattlemen)

Pope Selection

@silverbullet_62 retweeted:
No doubt the selection of a new pope will have some crazy unknown implication on the commodity markets:-)

ICA Meeting upcoming

RSVP by Friday, March 15-Call ICA 515-296-2266 East IA Stocker, Feeder Forum
Thur Mar 21 ExtensionOff. Oskaloosa, Fri Mar 22 ExtensionOff. Monticello
10a-3p

Go Broncos!

ESPN NFL - Broncos reach agreement with WR Wes Welker (118 catches for 1,354
yds with Pats in 2012) on 2-year deal

Severe weather spotter training tonight

Storm Spotter Training class in #Independence this evening. http://t.co/Topr0rJmPx #NWS #Severeweather -- Schnack KWWL (@KWWLSchnack)

Western Iowa Farmland Sale

Dunham bottom ground sold over by Dunlap, IA.

 It had an 83 CSR. $18,025 per acre for 144.03 acres.

Denny Grote Bought it. (Tom Muff runner up) $217 per CSR point.

This farm sold last Saturday morning by Dunlap. New record for our area. The buyer has been farming it for 40 years.

As seen on forwarded email chain 

Current Drought Monitor Link

droughtmonitor.unl.edu

2014 Super Bowl Odds

Updated Super Bowl odds: Pats 6/1, 49ers 7/1, Den 8/1, Sea 8/1, GB 10/1, Hous 15/1, Atl 17/1, Pitt 18/1, NYG 18/1 -- RJ Bell (@RJinVegas)

Interesting Biodiesel Fact

A Biodiesel Board study found that biodiesel production has increased soy oil demand by 29% which translates into an 8.3% higher resulting soybean price. It adds $40,000 to an 800 acre corn/soybean rotation farm's income. The biodiesel industry also added value to livestock production by boosting tallow and lard values 36%. That added $1.11 per head to hog values.

Machinery Sale

JD 8300 12' drill w/grass seed sold for $8,000 on Hampton, IA farm retirement auction today...new record... http://t.co/h0n7wDe5CC -- Greg Peterson (@MachineryPete)

Ship Wait Times

Vessel wait times for grain, sugar and soybeans out of Santos Brazil are now reported at 54 days, driving the world's Panamax market higher -- Kevin Roepke (@Maizstro)

Word to the Wise – Cover Your Corn Need

WHY YOU SHOULD HOLD ON TO YOUR OLD CROP CORN OR BOOK YOUR NEEDS!

Sorry, no graphs or tables.

By: Steve Meyer

Unless you have already priced your primary feed ingredients for the remainder of this crop year, I fear that the roller coaster ride is far from over. USDA’s February update of world supply and demand conditions still indicates that corn supplies at the end of this crop year are going to be very, very tight. Figure 1 shows their U.S. corn balance sheet. The 632 million bushels projected to be in bins at the end of August represents just short of three weeks’ supply of corn.

Only the 1995-96 supply was tighter. Corn price patterns for that period may be instructive (Figure 2). Omaha corn sold for $3.41/bu. the first week of January 1996. Corn prices rose to $3.81/bu. the week of March 8, but it didn’t stop there. By the first week of May, corn sold for $4.53/bu. in Omaha. But the price did not peak until the week of July 12 at $5.29/bu. The percentage increases relative that first week of January 1996 was 11.7% by March, 32.8% by May and 55.1% by July -- much higher prices even relative to a comparatively high price at the beginning of the year.

It is important to note that the run-up occurred after U.S. corn producers planted 10.8% more acres than one year earlier and while weather conditions were sufficiently good to push harvested acres up slightly relative to planted acres (up 11.4%) and to increase the 1996 yield by 12% vs. 1995. Total production in 1996 was 24.8% larger than the year before.

Could history repeat itself this year? We doubt that those magnitudes would apply, but the price in the first week of January 2013 was $7.17/bu. The beginning-of-March price is only 3% larger than that, but it would take an increase of only 11.6% from the Jan. 1 level to reach $8.00/bu. Given that corn went up nearly 25% from January to July in 1996, that doesn’t sound like a stretch at all.

In its 2013 baseline forecasts, USDA currently has planted-corn acreage falling from last year’s 97.2 million to only 96.5 million this year. Their current forecast for harvested acres is 1.4 million higher at 88.8 million acres, but these acreage figures are pretty much at odds with every private forecaster we have heard from so far. Everyone, of course, will get a better read on this year when the Prospective Planting report is published at the end of March. Should anything like USDA’s figure come to pass, I fear that it will put additional upward pressure on corn prices this year by pushing up next year’s futures.

USDA’s big offset, of course, is a projected “trend” yield of 163.6 bu./acre. We would characterize that as a “super-trend” yield since it is the result of calculations that remove all of the bad weather years and, in my opinion, assumes almost ideal growing weather.

The product of those two numbers – low acres and high yield – would provide a crop of 14.53 billion bushels, nearly 35% larger than last year’s disappointing 10.78 billion bushels. Should that kind of crop develop during June and July, we would expect some blunting of the needed run up to ration supplies, but weather will remain the key.

Two other factors are important.

First, how many acres will get planted to corn in southern states? The ratio of the price of cotton-to-corn has declined from well over 11 last summer to 8.5 last week. Still, that figure is among the highest 10% of weekly ratios prior to 2012.

The ratio of the price of soybeans-to-cotton is currently close to 17.5. That ratio was hardly ever above 15 prior to 2008 or during 2010 and 2011. It did surge over 20 in 2008-09, and again last year, but 17.5 remains a very high figure.

The point is that both crops should compete well with cotton for acres in climates that will result in early corn harvests – especially if producers use short-season varieties to try to catch high prices late in this crop year. The first USDA Crop Progress report, which contains planting progress estimates will be released on April 1.

The second key factor will be basis levels. Basis, of course, is the difference between cash and futures prices at a given location. It reflects local supply and demand conditions that may or may not be represented by the nearby futures contract. Figure 2 uses the average basis for Omaha corn from 2003-2012 to derive the predicted corn prices (red line) from futures prices as of Monday morning, March 4. But those long-term average basis figures are not likely to be the ones we see this year.

Figure 3 shows the 10-year average basis levels for Omaha as well as the weekly figures for 2012 and 2013. It is obvious that things have changed. Local corn demand, primarily from ethanol plants, has driven basis levels positive in many, many areas. In fact, Omaha basis was at or below the 10-year average during only four weeks last year. It has hardly dipped below 20 cents/bu. this year and we expect it to get larger this summer as users try to procure sufficient supplies to get to the end of the crop year.

While the potential for a large early-season crop is good, I am still afraid the basis situation could push corn prices extremely high – over $8.00/bu. – this summer. And that will be your cost: a) if you can find it and b) before you start hauling it. The first issue will not be a problem if you are willing to swallow the costs of the second issue provided you don’t get short on time. I have said for several years that the time was coming when summertime corn availability would be an issue in some areas. I think the time is here.

The bottom line is this – get your summer grain supply needs “in hand” – not just price-covered – and the sooner the better. The available supply is only going to get smaller between now and August.

Government Loans Simplified

USDA to Simplify Guaranteed Farm Loans by Setting Thresholds on Interest Rates: USDA to Simplify Guaranteed Fa... http://t.co/H2mmYNN41Y -- Farm Service Agency (@usdafsa)

New CME Trading Hours

Hearing rumor the new CME grain hours will be 6PM-8AM and 9AM-1PM. This is unconfirmed but this is what I'm hearing in the pit. #rumorville -- Rob Levy (@robbylevy)

Spring Crop Insurance Prices Set

RT @BGrete: Looks like crop insurance base price will be $5.65 for 2013-crop corn ($5.68 in '12) and $12.87 for soybeans ($12.55 in '12). -- Knutson Farms (@KnutsonFarms)

From Unknown

Analyst of the Day on the Big Show just said planters are rolling in Southern Texas.