Hardest time to make money in farming past 100 years was 1983. - Moe Russell -- Iowa Cattlemen (@IAcattlemen)
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Pope Selection
@silverbullet_62 retweeted:
No doubt the selection of a new pope will have some crazy unknown implication on the commodity markets:-)
No doubt the selection of a new pope will have some crazy unknown implication on the commodity markets:-)
ICA Meeting upcoming
RSVP by Friday, March 15-Call ICA 515-296-2266 East IA Stocker, Feeder Forum
Thur Mar 21 ExtensionOff. Oskaloosa, Fri Mar 22 ExtensionOff. Monticello
10a-3p
Thur Mar 21 ExtensionOff. Oskaloosa, Fri Mar 22 ExtensionOff. Monticello
10a-3p
Go Broncos!
ESPN NFL - Broncos reach agreement with WR Wes Welker (118 catches for 1,354
yds with Pats in 2012) on 2-year deal
yds with Pats in 2012) on 2-year deal
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Severe weather spotter training tonight
Storm Spotter Training class in #Independence this evening. http://t.co/Topr0rJmPx #NWS #Severeweather -- Schnack KWWL (@KWWLSchnack)
Western Iowa Farmland Sale
Dunham bottom ground sold over by Dunlap, IA.
It had an 83 CSR. $18,025 per acre for 144.03 acres.
Denny Grote Bought it. (Tom Muff runner up) $217 per CSR point.
As seen on forwarded email chain
Monday, March 11, 2013
2014 Super Bowl Odds
Updated Super Bowl odds: Pats 6/1, 49ers 7/1, Den 8/1, Sea 8/1, GB 10/1, Hous 15/1, Atl 17/1, Pitt 18/1, NYG 18/1 -- RJ Bell (@RJinVegas)
Interesting Biodiesel Fact
A Biodiesel Board study found that biodiesel production has increased soy oil demand by 29% which translates into an 8.3% higher resulting soybean price. It adds $40,000 to an 800 acre corn/soybean rotation farm's income. The biodiesel industry also added value to livestock production by boosting tallow and lard values 36%. That added $1.11 per head to hog values.
Friday, March 8, 2013
Machinery Sale
JD 8300 12' drill w/grass seed sold for $8,000 on Hampton, IA farm retirement auction today...new record... http://t.co/h0n7wDe5CC -- Greg Peterson (@MachineryPete)
Ship Wait Times
Vessel wait times for grain, sugar and soybeans out of Santos Brazil are now reported at 54 days, driving the world's Panamax market higher -- Kevin Roepke (@Maizstro)
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Word to the Wise – Cover Your Corn Need
Sorry, no graphs or tables.
By: Steve Meyer
Unless you have already priced your primary feed ingredients for the remainder of this crop year, I fear that the roller coaster ride is far from over. USDA’s February update of world supply and demand conditions still indicates that corn supplies at the end of this crop year are going to be very, very tight. Figure 1 shows their U.S. corn balance sheet. The 632 million bushels projected to be in bins at the end of August represents just short of three weeks’ supply of corn.
Only the 1995-96 supply was tighter. Corn price patterns for that period may be instructive (Figure 2). Omaha corn sold for $3.41/bu. the first week of January 1996. Corn prices rose to $3.81/bu. the week of March 8, but it didn’t stop there. By the first week of May, corn sold for $4.53/bu. in Omaha. But the price did not peak until the week of July 12 at $5.29/bu. The percentage increases relative that first week of January 1996 was 11.7% by March, 32.8% by May and 55.1% by July -- much higher prices even relative to a comparatively high price at the beginning of the year.
It is important to note that the run-up occurred after U.S. corn producers planted 10.8% more acres than one year earlier and while weather conditions were sufficiently good to push harvested acres up slightly relative to planted acres (up 11.4%) and to increase the 1996 yield by 12% vs. 1995. Total production in 1996 was 24.8% larger than the year before.
Could history repeat itself this year? We doubt that those magnitudes would apply, but the price in the first week of January 2013 was $7.17/bu. The beginning-of-March price is only 3% larger than that, but it would take an increase of only 11.6% from the Jan. 1 level to reach $8.00/bu. Given that corn went up nearly 25% from January to July in 1996, that doesn’t sound like a stretch at all.
In its 2013 baseline forecasts, USDA currently has planted-corn acreage falling from last year’s 97.2 million to only 96.5 million this year. Their current forecast for harvested acres is 1.4 million higher at 88.8 million acres, but these acreage figures are pretty much at odds with every private forecaster we have heard from so far. Everyone, of course, will get a better read on this year when the Prospective Planting report is published at the end of March. Should anything like USDA’s figure come to pass, I fear that it will put additional upward pressure on corn prices this year by pushing up next year’s futures.
USDA’s big offset, of course, is a projected “trend” yield of 163.6 bu./acre. We would characterize that as a “super-trend” yield since it is the result of calculations that remove all of the bad weather years and, in my opinion, assumes almost ideal growing weather.
The product of those two numbers – low acres and high yield – would provide a crop of 14.53 billion bushels, nearly 35% larger than last year’s disappointing 10.78 billion bushels. Should that kind of crop develop during June and July, we would expect some blunting of the needed run up to ration supplies, but weather will remain the key.
Two other factors are important.
First, how many acres will get planted to corn in southern states? The ratio of the price of cotton-to-corn has declined from well over 11 last summer to 8.5 last week. Still, that figure is among the highest 10% of weekly ratios prior to 2012.
The ratio of the price of soybeans-to-cotton is currently close to 17.5. That ratio was hardly ever above 15 prior to 2008 or during 2010 and 2011. It did surge over 20 in 2008-09, and again last year, but 17.5 remains a very high figure.
The point is that both crops should compete well with cotton for acres in climates that will result in early corn harvests – especially if producers use short-season varieties to try to catch high prices late in this crop year. The first USDA Crop Progress report, which contains planting progress estimates will be released on April 1.
The second key factor will be basis levels. Basis, of course, is the difference between cash and futures prices at a given location. It reflects local supply and demand conditions that may or may not be represented by the nearby futures contract. Figure 2 uses the average basis for Omaha corn from 2003-2012 to derive the predicted corn prices (red line) from futures prices as of Monday morning, March 4. But those long-term average basis figures are not likely to be the ones we see this year.
Figure 3 shows the 10-year average basis levels for Omaha as well as the weekly figures for 2012 and 2013. It is obvious that things have changed. Local corn demand, primarily from ethanol plants, has driven basis levels positive in many, many areas. In fact, Omaha basis was at or below the 10-year average during only four weeks last year. It has hardly dipped below 20 cents/bu. this year and we expect it to get larger this summer as users try to procure sufficient supplies to get to the end of the crop year.
While the potential for a large early-season crop is good, I am still afraid the basis situation could push corn prices extremely high – over $8.00/bu. – this summer. And that will be your cost: a) if you can find it and b) before you start hauling it. The first issue will not be a problem if you are willing to swallow the costs of the second issue provided you don’t get short on time. I have said for several years that the time was coming when summertime corn availability would be an issue in some areas. I think the time is here.
The bottom line is this – get your summer grain supply needs “in hand” – not just price-covered – and the sooner the better. The available supply is only going to get smaller between now and August.
Friday, March 1, 2013
Government Loans Simplified
USDA to Simplify Guaranteed Farm Loans by Setting Thresholds on Interest Rates: USDA to Simplify Guaranteed Fa... http://t.co/H2mmYNN41Y -- Farm Service Agency (@usdafsa)
New CME Trading Hours
Hearing rumor the new CME grain hours will be 6PM-8AM and 9AM-1PM. This is unconfirmed but this is what I'm hearing in the pit. #rumorville -- Rob Levy (@robbylevy)
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Spring Crop Insurance Prices Set
RT @BGrete: Looks like crop insurance base price will be $5.65 for 2013-crop corn ($5.68 in '12) and $12.87 for soybeans ($12.55 in '12). -- Knutson Farms (@KnutsonFarms)
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Hacking computer servers makes this look easy
Talk of US #corn import margins into China now close to $50 per ton. China in past two weeks silently grabbing 600,000-800,000 tons new-crop -- Hedge Specialist (@KevinVanTrump)
Fastrack to Shanghai
Talk is #China can get #soybeans out of the US in less than 3-weeks time, where as the lineups in #Brazil are now a month and a half long. -- Hedge Specialist (@KevinVanTrump)
From Tim Harbaugh- Agrigold Seed Sales Rep
Tim Harbaugh
Agrigold Seed Sales Rep.
Tim.Harbaugh@agreliantgenetics.com
563-580-1212
Top 10 List to Achieving Maximum Yields
Although drought is on everyone's mind going into the 2013 growing season, there are certain things that occur every year in one corner or another in Eastern Iowa. Somewhere there will be wet planting conditions or dry planting conditions or black cutworm or rootworms or numerous other challenges. The following is a list put together on what I feel are the most common situations that we should look to control in order to achieve maximum yields.
1. Genetic Selection - One of the biggest decisions that needs to be made is also one that we have the most time to ponder and results in arguably the biggest payoff. Regardless of the sales add that you see, as a farmer you know your fields better than anyone else. The light spots, the poor drainage, the underlying layer of gravel - have all been documented in your mind and records. Different families and individual hybrids within these families will handle these situations as well as planting populations in their own way, pick your CS's brain thoroughly on placement.
2. Soil Conditions - With a lack of soil moisture, tillage passes become even more important. The main goal no matter what approach you select is to get a seed bed that provides good seed to soil contact with uniform moisture and temperature. No-till is garnering a lot of discussion to conserve water, as is strip till which works and warms the planting zone while leaving inter row soils alone. The most common practice to this day though exercises some sort of tillage across the field where two main options come into play. Till early in the year when the temps are lower to reduce evaporation loss while increasing the potential for erosion, or till shortly before planting to reduce erosion risk and aid even emergence but take more of a hit on evaporation.
3. Barrier Free Root Zone - Average to above normal rainfall covers up many issues including compaction layers within a corn field if spaced out evenly. I have found myself shaking my head in disbelief upon digging, or trying to dig up a root ball on an excellent looking corn plant with a terrific ear only to find half a root mass at best in wet years. Most of the time during average to below precipitation years root mass will make all of the difference in the world, just like in 2012. We don't yet know what we will get this year but the majority of the time a hard pan will seal a plant's fate and is easy to find, just try to dig it up. Alleviate these compaction layers if at all possible with deep tillage, cover crops, or increasing organic matter before another dry year takes away that acre's profits.
4. Seed Placement - Every year seed placement becomes an issue as a general rule of thumb - no matter the moisture level in the field. Corn needs to imbibe about 30% of its dry weight in moisture for growth to begin so putting the seed in uniform moisture is a must. Proper row cleaner adjustment to clear away debris that wicks out moisture or clods that create air pockets is a necessity. Closing wheels will need to be adjusted to achieve the best results as crop rotation, previous tillage, planting depth, soil type, moisture level, or even time of day changes. Without proper seed placement and uniform emergence, your final ear production per acre will suffer and the more fixed eared hybrids will take a beating.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1183.jpg]
Uneven emergence in dry soils leading to as much as a 3 leaf collar difference.
5. Insect Control - Early in a plants' life any stress can greatly reduce the possible ear size that could be grown. Whether it be wireworms, white grubs, seedcorn maggots, grape colaspis, nematodes, rootworm larvae or even the pop up out of nowhere black cutworm, these insects can stunt or kill seedlings, limiting your effective ear producing plant population. Seed treatments such as Poncho/Votivo handle many of these, granular insecticide is a major part of controlling rootworms, and good regular scouting is needed to catch cutworm outbreaks.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1185.jpg]
Black Cutworm
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1186.jpg]
Wireworm
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1187.jpg]
Rootworm Larvae
6. Proper Herbicide Applications - In a study conducted at the U of MN from 2004 to 2006, weeds killed at 7 inches vs. 5 inches resulted in a 12 bushel yield loss. When herbicide application (in this case glyphosate) waited until weeds were 9 inches tall, it cost the grower 27 bushels vs. the 5 inch weed height. In a different study conducted at the U of WI from 2006 to 2007, weeds sprayed at 4 inches removed from 12 to 26 # of Nitrogen from the soil while 12 inch weeds took 25 to 67# of Nitrogen from the crop. This interval from 4 to 12 inches equated to a difference in yield of 12 to 18 bushels lost.
7. Adequate N Supply - As one of the macronutrients needed for a good crop of corn, both amount and availability of Nitrogen throughout a corn plants' life is of major concern. I am personally in favor of at least two forms (or two application passes) of Nitrogen each year to feed the crop which will hedge your bet against a particular weather pattern stealing one form (or trip). Anhydrous applications will undoubtedly be made at a deeper level in 2013 to assure proper seal so UAN as a chemical carrier (~30#) is a good option to feed the plant until its roots get into that layer where the NH3 was placed.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1188.jpg]
N deficient corn leaf
8. Pollination Protection- This past year Japanese Beetles made a hard charge onto the scene and almost made us forget about the other silk clippers that have widened their area of attack yet another year, rootworm beetles. Either of these can cause a complete pollination failure by clipping silks to within ½ inch of the ear if untreated on what otherwise appears to be a healthy plant. In 2012, silks that were clipped regenerated even more slowly than normal because of the lack of moisture within the plant, making spray timing that much more imperative. Those who found these issues before it was too late put big money in their pocket, but remember, each maturity within the same field runs the risk at a different time.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1189.jpg]
Japanese Beetles
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1190.jpg]
Lack of pollination from silk clipping
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1191.jpg]
Rootworm Beetles
9. Late Season Disease Control - As we finally get our corn crop into the ear fill stage, undoubtedly some leaf disease will pop up and cause us problems. Cooler seasons generally give us Eyespot, Common Rust and Northern Corn Leaf Blight while warmer ones throw Gray Leaf Spot and sometimes Southern Rust our way. Once again knowing the history of your fields and the likelihood of a hybrid to contract certain diseases can lead you to applying a fungicide and extending your crops' life. Mind your labels though as well as adjuvants and crop maturity so that ear formation isn't suddenly halted with premature applications.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1192.jpg]
Gray Leaf Spot
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1193.jpg]
Northern Corn Leaf Blight
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1194.jpg]
Common Rust
10. Timely Harvest - As the year winds down, make sure your diligent checking of fields doesn't halt just because the green color is gone. Applying the "push test" or "pinch test" to check a corn's integrity is an easy way to save yourself from losing bushels due to down corn and fighting unnecessary volunteer corn the following year. Stalk rots are weak pathogens that are opportunistic in nature, attacking already stressed corn when conditions are right. Just before harvest is a perfect time to once again consult with your CS to get a handle on which hybrids should most likely come out early.
Reference: Stahl, Liz U-M Extension. "Timely Weed Management Protects Corn Yields." Wallaces Farmer. 30 April, 2010.
Agrigold Seed Sales Rep.
Tim.Harbaugh@agreliantgenetics.com
563-580-1212
Top 10 List to Achieving Maximum Yields
Although drought is on everyone's mind going into the 2013 growing season, there are certain things that occur every year in one corner or another in Eastern Iowa. Somewhere there will be wet planting conditions or dry planting conditions or black cutworm or rootworms or numerous other challenges. The following is a list put together on what I feel are the most common situations that we should look to control in order to achieve maximum yields.
1. Genetic Selection - One of the biggest decisions that needs to be made is also one that we have the most time to ponder and results in arguably the biggest payoff. Regardless of the sales add that you see, as a farmer you know your fields better than anyone else. The light spots, the poor drainage, the underlying layer of gravel - have all been documented in your mind and records. Different families and individual hybrids within these families will handle these situations as well as planting populations in their own way, pick your CS's brain thoroughly on placement.
2. Soil Conditions - With a lack of soil moisture, tillage passes become even more important. The main goal no matter what approach you select is to get a seed bed that provides good seed to soil contact with uniform moisture and temperature. No-till is garnering a lot of discussion to conserve water, as is strip till which works and warms the planting zone while leaving inter row soils alone. The most common practice to this day though exercises some sort of tillage across the field where two main options come into play. Till early in the year when the temps are lower to reduce evaporation loss while increasing the potential for erosion, or till shortly before planting to reduce erosion risk and aid even emergence but take more of a hit on evaporation.
3. Barrier Free Root Zone - Average to above normal rainfall covers up many issues including compaction layers within a corn field if spaced out evenly. I have found myself shaking my head in disbelief upon digging, or trying to dig up a root ball on an excellent looking corn plant with a terrific ear only to find half a root mass at best in wet years. Most of the time during average to below precipitation years root mass will make all of the difference in the world, just like in 2012. We don't yet know what we will get this year but the majority of the time a hard pan will seal a plant's fate and is easy to find, just try to dig it up. Alleviate these compaction layers if at all possible with deep tillage, cover crops, or increasing organic matter before another dry year takes away that acre's profits.
4. Seed Placement - Every year seed placement becomes an issue as a general rule of thumb - no matter the moisture level in the field. Corn needs to imbibe about 30% of its dry weight in moisture for growth to begin so putting the seed in uniform moisture is a must. Proper row cleaner adjustment to clear away debris that wicks out moisture or clods that create air pockets is a necessity. Closing wheels will need to be adjusted to achieve the best results as crop rotation, previous tillage, planting depth, soil type, moisture level, or even time of day changes. Without proper seed placement and uniform emergence, your final ear production per acre will suffer and the more fixed eared hybrids will take a beating.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1183.jpg]
Uneven emergence in dry soils leading to as much as a 3 leaf collar difference.
5. Insect Control - Early in a plants' life any stress can greatly reduce the possible ear size that could be grown. Whether it be wireworms, white grubs, seedcorn maggots, grape colaspis, nematodes, rootworm larvae or even the pop up out of nowhere black cutworm, these insects can stunt or kill seedlings, limiting your effective ear producing plant population. Seed treatments such as Poncho/Votivo handle many of these, granular insecticide is a major part of controlling rootworms, and good regular scouting is needed to catch cutworm outbreaks.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1185.jpg]
Black Cutworm
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1186.jpg]
Wireworm
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1187.jpg]
Rootworm Larvae
6. Proper Herbicide Applications - In a study conducted at the U of MN from 2004 to 2006, weeds killed at 7 inches vs. 5 inches resulted in a 12 bushel yield loss. When herbicide application (in this case glyphosate) waited until weeds were 9 inches tall, it cost the grower 27 bushels vs. the 5 inch weed height. In a different study conducted at the U of WI from 2006 to 2007, weeds sprayed at 4 inches removed from 12 to 26 # of Nitrogen from the soil while 12 inch weeds took 25 to 67# of Nitrogen from the crop. This interval from 4 to 12 inches equated to a difference in yield of 12 to 18 bushels lost.
7. Adequate N Supply - As one of the macronutrients needed for a good crop of corn, both amount and availability of Nitrogen throughout a corn plants' life is of major concern. I am personally in favor of at least two forms (or two application passes) of Nitrogen each year to feed the crop which will hedge your bet against a particular weather pattern stealing one form (or trip). Anhydrous applications will undoubtedly be made at a deeper level in 2013 to assure proper seal so UAN as a chemical carrier (~30#) is a good option to feed the plant until its roots get into that layer where the NH3 was placed.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1188.jpg]
N deficient corn leaf
8. Pollination Protection- This past year Japanese Beetles made a hard charge onto the scene and almost made us forget about the other silk clippers that have widened their area of attack yet another year, rootworm beetles. Either of these can cause a complete pollination failure by clipping silks to within ½ inch of the ear if untreated on what otherwise appears to be a healthy plant. In 2012, silks that were clipped regenerated even more slowly than normal because of the lack of moisture within the plant, making spray timing that much more imperative. Those who found these issues before it was too late put big money in their pocket, but remember, each maturity within the same field runs the risk at a different time.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1189.jpg]
Japanese Beetles
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1190.jpg]
Lack of pollination from silk clipping
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1191.jpg]
Rootworm Beetles
9. Late Season Disease Control - As we finally get our corn crop into the ear fill stage, undoubtedly some leaf disease will pop up and cause us problems. Cooler seasons generally give us Eyespot, Common Rust and Northern Corn Leaf Blight while warmer ones throw Gray Leaf Spot and sometimes Southern Rust our way. Once again knowing the history of your fields and the likelihood of a hybrid to contract certain diseases can lead you to applying a fungicide and extending your crops' life. Mind your labels though as well as adjuvants and crop maturity so that ear formation isn't suddenly halted with premature applications.
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1192.jpg]
Gray Leaf Spot
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1193.jpg]
Northern Corn Leaf Blight
[http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs165/1103180195523/img/1194.jpg]
Common Rust
10. Timely Harvest - As the year winds down, make sure your diligent checking of fields doesn't halt just because the green color is gone. Applying the "push test" or "pinch test" to check a corn's integrity is an easy way to save yourself from losing bushels due to down corn and fighting unnecessary volunteer corn the following year. Stalk rots are weak pathogens that are opportunistic in nature, attacking already stressed corn when conditions are right. Just before harvest is a perfect time to once again consult with your CS to get a handle on which hybrids should most likely come out early.
Reference: Stahl, Liz U-M Extension. "Timely Weed Management Protects Corn Yields." Wallaces Farmer. 30 April, 2010.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
New Vets in Trap!
High Debt and Falling Demand Trap New Veterinarians - http://t.co/4YGN8A61OV http://t.co/OXksnTV7oU -- Market to Market (@MarketToMarket)
From Scott Hingtgen- Jackson County, IA
Beings February is almost over, does that mean the market is going to rally. Now that they will have a lower crop insurance price guarantee to start the year?
Monday, February 25, 2013
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Blown Away
A record daily snowfall of 9.7" was set in #Columbia, MO today. The previous record was 1.8" in 1907. -- Schnack KWWL (@KWWLSchnack)
Farmland Auction- Marengo, Iowa County, IA
1. $8500 PER ACRE
$ 10,577 PER TILLABLE 48.5/A TILLABLE
$172 / PER CSR TILLABLE (61-CSR)
2. $10,800 PER ACRE
$13,127 PER TILLABLE36.2/A TILLABLE
$177/ PER CSR TILLABLE (74 CSR)
3. $6300 PASTURE
4. $4000 TIMBER--PASTURE
As I See It....
February 21, 2013
By Pete Burmeister
I heard the term "Ground Sow" used at the Iowa Beef Expo last weekend to describe a breeding heifer in the junior show as she was leaving the ring---
 |
| "GROUND SOW" |
After getting a good chuckle out of the statement, I had to see what the online dictionary and all POWERFUL Google had to say about it......
As I suspected...it's not definable, but here's the image Google produced.
I'm not sure if this is the image the judge was trying to ingrain in the minds of the folks ringside last weekend at the Expo when complementing the kid's calf by calling his/her heifer a "Ground Sow", but I suspect it was not.
I know it's sometimes humorous for those who attend livestock shows regularly or who may have judged in college to incorporate some slang into describing livestock. It's their best effort to keep it fresh and fun while showing off just how much true livestock "talent" they have. I get that.... I think.
Having said that though, some slang terms are just plain stupid and don't make sense in any description. In this instance, "Ground Sow" is one of them... especially when describing breeding cattle.
Next time, let's try not to dumb things down as much folks!
Next time, let's try not to dumb things down as much folks!
Interesting stuff
87% of small town accidents are alcohol/machinery related. #smalltownproblems #statistics -- Small Town Problems (@SmallTwnProbs)
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