I cant remember her name.....but this lil girl n her mini herf steer just about STOLE THE SHOW at the Ia… http://t.co/mtiRY4Ho -- Brad Hook (@jbradleyhook)
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Monday, February 18, 2013
Rudolphi's Burning- Get on with IT!
Rudolphi's Burning on
News From The Coffee Shop
February 18, 2013 11:11 AM
Get on with IT!
Everywhere you go, people talk about it. In the Ag world, nearly every conversation is started in reference to it. Every publication and magazine has at least one article dedicated to the topic. I can’t even attend a family function or visit with a random person on an airplane without hearing commentary in regards to the land market and prices being received for acres of farmland.
Most of the comments that routinely annoy me are of the following variety…. “How high is land going to go?”…… “Do you think it’s a bubble?”……“I just don’t understand how they can make that work”….. “It’s all these investors driving up the price…making it hard for the farmers to compete”……. “Will we see a repeat of the 80s?”…. “It’s getting to where a young person just doesn’t have a chance anymore.”
After being drawn into a countless number of philosophical debates over the last couple of years, I have finally drawn a conclusion to just about all of these questions. They are as follows…. “I don’t care”…”I don’t care”…. “They aren’t and they don’t care”…. “Who cares” ….. “No”….. “Sure, if that’s what you want to believe”. I am going to now spend the rest of the article elaborating a little on why I, they, and you shouldn’t care.
“How high is land going to go? I just don’t understand how they can make that work.”
I’m not discounting the fact that land is expensive, really expensive, frickin’ crazy expensive. It’s higher than 2 community college freshmen that just scored their first dime bag. But, the fact remains that in the case of most farmers it doesn’t matter how high land goes or whether or not a correction takes place in the land market.
Producers that went into the last few years with momentum have war chests full of money. In addition, the mentality of most farmers is that once a chunk of ground is purchased by them, it will never be sold by them. Therefore, if one has necessary cash flow to make the purchase work and never intends to cash in on market appreciation, it really doesn’t matter what happens to the value of the asset.
Farmers are continuing to purchase land at these prices for 3 reasons; they can cash flow it, they want to expand their business and portfolio, and owning the next 80 acres is more important to them than a higher rate of return that could be achieved on their money somewhere else. From an ROI standpoint, high priced real estate makes very little sense, but it is important to keep in mind that what farmers bring to the table in terms of work ethic and passion, they typically give up in imagination. Thus, with land being the only target for their money, there are very few limitations on what they can actually pay for the 80 across the fence. Their only limitation is their conscious which is concerned about the rumor mill at the local card club.
Do you think it’s a bubble? Will we see a repeat of the 80s?
No, I don’t think we will see a repeat of the 80’s. It is very possible that we will see a correction in the land market at some point, perhaps even a blip or burst of sorts. When that happens, most everyone will be unaffected and continue operating business as usual.
The one reason that brings me to this conclusion is that while the land market has escalated to a very high level, the banks have backstopped the rise very well. Unlike the 1980’s no lending institutions (at least none that I know of, please call me asap if you find one otherwise) are loaning money on asset value. Most banks are only willing to lend $5500-$6000/ acre. FYI…this is not some arbitrary number that a guy behind a desk threw a dart at a board one day and landed on…this is where the stuff cash flows using trend yields and moderate commodity prices. With these parameters in place, most purchasers are quite secure (again back to that war chests full of money thing) and it will be difficult for the bubble to burst too violently.
“It’s all these investors driving up the price…making it hard for the farmers to compete”
Investors, while interested in owning land are not interested in owning high priced land. What does any investor want? A cheap asset with a high rate of return—who wouldn’t? $400/acre rent on a $15,000 asset represents a 2.66% rate of return. To your garden variety, non-farmer, Wall Street type investor this return just won’t cut the mustard. Investors are not interested in these types of purchases. Most investors can be found in the market today strictly playing defense. Making sure something just “doesn’t go too cheap”.
The notion that farmers and non-farmer investors are enemies is asinine. Sure it’s easy to get sour when you get beat out on a purchase, but then you have to step back and think to yourself... What’s the next best thing to owning a farm? Renting it. Putting your operation in position to do business with an investor or investment group could be a really cool deal for any farmer. Yes, they might ask a little more in rent, make you manage your operation a little better, take a little of the gravy out of it, but hey if not you, then who?
“It’s getting to where a young person just doesn’t have a chance anymore.”
Let’s face it…it has never been easy or non-capital intensive to get started in production agriculture. There has never been a guarantee of easy money, or even a guarantee of compensation. It is a commodity business. Farming is not similar to the technology sector where new “property” can be pulled out of thin air. We produce very tangible products that have a very specific value. That is just the nature of the game.
However, the notion that new farmers cannot make it today is far from true. Bringing different approaches, business acumen, and production models can prove to be highly effective in a mature industry such as faming. Is the entry cheap, easy, or without significant risk? No, but no business venture on earth is.
To gain entry to the market one is often forced to work harder, smarter, and willing to accept more risk than that of those already in the game. There has never been a period of time in which this has been different. The opportunities that are out there and available are endless…Will they require significant sacrifice and a “nose to the grindstone approach”? Of course they will, but the only producers who are truly going to succeed are those that eat, sleep, and breathe their business.
So we all might as well quit pondering the land market and get to work!
Editor's Note:
Rob Rudolphi resides in Eastern Iowa with his lovely wife Tara, where he is involved in several agricultural businesses. They currently have no kids, no dogs, and certainly no cats, and are generally up for anything involving a good time!
The mission of the column is to advocate agriculture, entertain (provided that you are entertainable), serve as a catalyst for critical thinking, and challenge the status quo amongst the agricultural community.
If you have a idea that would make a good "Burn Topic" for next month's Rudolphi's Burning column, please email the idea to prburmeister@gmail.com All entries will remain anonymous.
Full Time Job Posted
Full time feed truck driver opening based out of Jesup. Must have class A CDL. Contact Dennis Francik @ dfrancik@ecicoop.com or 319-827-6226 -- ECI COOP (@ECI_COOP)
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Market Advice
Buy corn today, it is going to close today in the green. No clue if it stays there tomorrow, but for today, we go higher. Your welcome. -- Jerod McDaniel (@jerodmcdaniel)
Monday, February 11, 2013
Farm Income Projection
FARM INCOME WILL DECLINE NEXT YEAR, AFTER 2013 PEAK, BUT WILL REMAIN "WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE OF THE PREVIOUS DECADE," USDA SAYS. -- Max Armstrong (@maxarmstrong)
Independence, IA Ag Teacher Position
This is a little late getting posted, but it is still a great story!
Pete,
Pete,
Hope things are going great. The job description for the Independence Ag/FFA teacher is posted, and it is finally starting to make its way around. I talked to some of the guys in the State FFA Office today, and they are really excited about what is going on in Independence. Here is a link to the description and an interview with the principal if you can help out. Hope to see you guys soon.
Crystal Blin
Mittag Show Cattle: Iowa Beef Expo BLAST FROM THE PAST
Mittag Show Cattle: Iowa Beef Expo BLAST FROM THE PAST: BLAST FROM THE PAST 1986 Iowa Beef Expo Grand Champion Steer (Top) Shown by Jerry Frasher Reserve Champion Steer (Bottom)...
THIS IS A VERY GOOD READ- If you are going to judge a Texas major....
THIS IS A VERY GOOD READ
There are enough people carrying the pitchforks over Ft Worth, that's not what this is. Relative to much of what’s being said, I’m taking the nice approach on this.
Newsflash: I highly doubt he really cares what you guys think.
So, if YOU are going to judge a Texas major…
The process began several years ago when the breeder bought the cows to breed. It continued through the purchase of a bull or semen. When that calf was born, he was dolled up and marketed. The family that showed the steer likely chose him out of quite a few choices and spent several thousand on him. The kid broke him in the school’s pens or the pens his family built. He worked the calf’s hair daily. She fed the calf on a regular schedule and once supplements were taken into account, the family easily put $2,000 in feed into the calf. The family drove to Ft Worth and got hotel rooms for the week. The day of the show, several people spent several hours getting the calf ready for your evaluation of him.
That's not a story about the grand champion or class winners, it's every single calf in the show.
That breeder, that kid, that family, and those ag teachers deserve at least two seconds of your time to look at their hard work.
If you don't have both the physical and mental endurance to give 1,400+ steers at least two seconds of your time over the course of two or three days, you are an absolutely horrible human being for agreeing to do so.
If you are a show manager and you make the choice to use a judge that doesn’t think giving every calf through the ring a fair evaluation is what he's there for, you’re just as bad.
If you are a show manager and decide that your loyalty to a certain weight break format that your facilities are not capable of handling is more important than your responsibility to the kids that enter your show, go jump in that same lake.
In a year when there has been more complaining about a show than I’ve personally ever heard, complaints about the cattle Mark Johnson used have been oddly absent. Nobody (well, almost nobody) is running around yelling that he played politics or that they should have placed higher.
What the complaints HAVE been about are they didn’t even get a look because his attention was elsewhere on the way in. They didn’t run over other kids so they ended up in the back half of the class and were therefore irrelevant. They were never examined while lined up on the wall. They cooked corn for weeks to get a calf just right to the touch only to never actually be touched by the judge. The walk out of the ring was nothing more than a formality.
If you weren't pulled on the initial walk in, whether Johnson saw you or not, you were done.
I don’t care who you are or what your judging team did in Louisville; you owe it to those kids to evaluate every last calf that is put in front of you.
If you cannot do that, do not agree to judge a major.
There are a lot of steers at those big Texas shows. You have to be able to look at one walking into the ring and then turn your attention to the next one without missing 3-4 steers while you turn your back on the line.
If you cannot do that, do not agree to judge a major. If it's the ring managers that keep the pace too fast, it's your job to tell them to slow down.
You are going to miss some on the initial walk because just like everyone else, you are human. If the kids are supposed to keep showing until they leave the ring, you have a responsibility to keep judging until they leave the ring.
If you cannot do that, do not agree to judge a major.
No, this isn’t about us getting snubbed; we don't really raise Ft Worth cattle (you think structure matters to heifer mates? try calving those shaggy monsters in July/August where we live) and didn't even have a calf there. I have no bone to pick about any calf that placed highly or vice versa. Frankly, I’m actually being quite polite and respectful relative to what’s generally being said about the situation after last Thursday and Friday.
Please don’t think this is about a person or the gripe fest that’s currently happening on social media and in barns.
It’s about grown men showing those "God raised a farmer" kids at least the absolute minimum level of respect they deserve for a year of hard work.
If you cannot do that, do not agree to judge a major.
- By Jeff
Friday, February 8, 2013
Inevitable
"To succeed in this world, you have to change all the time." Sam Walton ...RT if you think this applies to farming. http://t.co/0essGb5I -- Farmland Network (@FarmlandNetwork)
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Food Facts
From the fields to your fork, the average American dinner travels 1,500 miles. -- Courtney Knupp (@CourtneyKnupp)
Current Drought Monitor Link
The Drought Monitor update was released today. A slight improvement from last week. It is worse in western Iowa. http://t.co/QJPHcQ1m -- Schnack KWWL (@KWWLSchnack)
Humor
Ever noticed that a woman's "I'll be ready in 5 minutes" and a man's "I'll be home in 5 minutes" are exactly the same? -- Men's Humor (@MensHumor)
Insurance Prices So Far...
RT @StandardGrain: Through the first 4 full days of Feb, crop insurance averages: $5.89 Dec #corn, $13.40 Nov #soybeans -- Knutson Farms (@KnutsonFarms)
Soybean Exports
#Soybean export sales again surge past expectations to 896,200 MT for 2012-13 and 771,000 MT for 2013-14. WOW! #pfnews -- Meghan Pedersen (@MeghanPedersen)
Corn Exports
CORRECTION: #Corn export sales of 168,900 MT for 2012-13 and a net sales reduction of 8,500 MT for 2013-14 match expectations. #pfnews -- Meghan Pedersen (@MeghanPedersen)
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Ouch
In all seriousness, #Dec13 Corn is getting hit hard today. One has to be worried that the "Big" moves only happen to the downside. -- Knutson Farms (@KnutsonFarms)
Monday, February 4, 2013
Benton County 4-H Family
Champion Maine Steer & 5th Overall - Jon Roettger- Dysart, IA #MOAGRCLASSIC -- AGR Classic (@MOAGRClassic)
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Grains Moving
THIS RT @hedgeit_tcronin: Several analysts and elevators saying yesterday was their biggest day of #corn and #soybean movement since harvest -- Knutson Farms (@KnutsonFarms)
Farmland Sale
110 acres in Christian Co IL sold at auction today for $15,800 an acre. I do not know who bought it. -- Cory Ritter (@CoryRitter)
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Bald Eagle Rehabilitated
 |
| It's a Bald Eagle! Eagle found near death east of Winthrop, IA was rehabilitated and released. |
Bearwolf
 |
| The guy in the photo is a salesman for Kolbe & Kolbe who owns a cabin up in Woodruff, WI. Wouldn't that cause the ole ticker to kick up a notch if it appeared in your path while out for an evening in the forest!? This is not a bear, it's a 182 lb. wolf killed near Woodrufff, WI. I'll call it a "Bearwolf" |
Japan’s 20-month rule ends on Feb. 1
The U.S. beef industry began this week with positive news that access to the Japanese market will improve significantly. Following a week of rumors and unofficial statements, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk and United States Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced Monday morning that the United States and Japan have agreed on new terms and conditions under which Japan will allow imports of U.S. beef from cattle up to 30 months of age beginning February 1.
Article By: John Maday, Managing Editor, Drovers CattleNetwork
Article By: John Maday, Managing Editor, Drovers CattleNetwork
Friday, January 25, 2013
Full-Time Job Posted
Full time position in the Independence, IA. area with established agricultural consulting firm. Advancement potential, salary plus bonus. Job duties include field mapping, soil sampling, field scouting and record keeping. NO PRODUCTS SOLD. Knowledge of agronomy and crop production a must. Agronomy or related degree preferred.
Forward resume and references to Taralan Corporation, Attn: Jess Ragsdale 2406 King Ave, Independence, IA. 50644 or by email to jessicaschmitz@hotmail.com
Van Trump's take on corn market
Regardless of your opinion, you can not dispute the fact that money has been leaving the trade. Just in the past 30-days the funds have dumped over 50,000 long corn contracts and more than 40,000 soybean contracts. Remember, at one point in time last year the funds were long close to 500,000 corn contracts, now that number is closer to 200,000. They were also long close to 300,000 soybean contracts, now they have less than 100,000 long soy contracts. If you believe the "funds" are the horsepower that drive our pricing engines than you can clearly see we have gone from sitting behind the wheel of a new Ford Mustang Shelby GT 500, that is pushing 660 plus horses, to driving a 4-cyl Ford Focus, that is spurting up every hill as it pushes only 160 horses.
In a nut shell, we need more fuel on the fire, we need more bullish stories to get the funds excited and back in the game. The problem is I am just not seeing it near-term. Sure, one could argue that there is a US weather story brewing, unfortunately that is still a little ways off on the horizon. You could argue increasing Chinese demand, but from what I have heard the past couple of days the Chinese soy crush margins seem to be softening, and there is talk now that their demand will setback even further during and immediately following their upcoming Lunar New Year Holiday, therefore we are not as bullish as we once were about near-term old-crop Chinese demand. We were also hoping South America would have been sold out of corn exports by now, but that is obviously not the case as they continue to win over more and more traditional US purchasers. There is also no real South American weather story to speak of. Yes, Argentina is dry in some areas, but it is lacking the extreme heat to drastically reduce the crop, and it seems that every reduction in Argentina production is meet by an equal or greater increase in Brazilian production, net-net nothing real exciting or bullish to speak of on the South American front. One could also make a bullish argument about the extreme heat in Australia, the problem is planting is still two-months away, so there is just too much time still remaining to get overly excited about this story as well.
I would like to be as bullish as every other producer out there, the problem is until we get some type of NEW, near-term bullish "headlines" that excite the managed-money, I am afraid we are going to be stuck cruising around town in our less than powerful, fuel-friendly Ford Focus. Understand, there is nothing wrong with a Ford Focus, but with as much weight as we currently have in our vehicle (meaning with corn prices already above $7.00 near-term), we are going to have a real tough time climbing, at any rate speed, up the next price mountain. A Ford Focus down on flat ground around $4.50 performs a whole lot different than a Ford Focus heavily weighted down up in peaks of the Rocky Mountains.
Some of the most worldly advice on the trading floor is that bull markets most always end on bullish news and bear markets on bearish news. In other words you will know a bull market has ran its course when it no longer reacts positively to bullish news. Likewise you will know when a bearish market is close to ending by when the market no longer moves lower on bearish news. Think about this for a second, the USDA yesterday announced a sale of 620,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans (over 1.2 million the past couple of weeks)...yet the NOV13 soybean contract did next to nothing, in fact at one point following the sales announcement the new-crop bean contract actually traded down over -$0.10 cents. My point is this is not the type of reaction you would traditionally see from a "bullish" market. I have learned through the years, the markets are somewhat like your own kids, be careful when they are acting sick, strange, or just not being themselves...its generally a sign that they are about to puke!
As seen on the Van Trump Report
In a nut shell, we need more fuel on the fire, we need more bullish stories to get the funds excited and back in the game. The problem is I am just not seeing it near-term. Sure, one could argue that there is a US weather story brewing, unfortunately that is still a little ways off on the horizon. You could argue increasing Chinese demand, but from what I have heard the past couple of days the Chinese soy crush margins seem to be softening, and there is talk now that their demand will setback even further during and immediately following their upcoming Lunar New Year Holiday, therefore we are not as bullish as we once were about near-term old-crop Chinese demand. We were also hoping South America would have been sold out of corn exports by now, but that is obviously not the case as they continue to win over more and more traditional US purchasers. There is also no real South American weather story to speak of. Yes, Argentina is dry in some areas, but it is lacking the extreme heat to drastically reduce the crop, and it seems that every reduction in Argentina production is meet by an equal or greater increase in Brazilian production, net-net nothing real exciting or bullish to speak of on the South American front. One could also make a bullish argument about the extreme heat in Australia, the problem is planting is still two-months away, so there is just too much time still remaining to get overly excited about this story as well.
I would like to be as bullish as every other producer out there, the problem is until we get some type of NEW, near-term bullish "headlines" that excite the managed-money, I am afraid we are going to be stuck cruising around town in our less than powerful, fuel-friendly Ford Focus. Understand, there is nothing wrong with a Ford Focus, but with as much weight as we currently have in our vehicle (meaning with corn prices already above $7.00 near-term), we are going to have a real tough time climbing, at any rate speed, up the next price mountain. A Ford Focus down on flat ground around $4.50 performs a whole lot different than a Ford Focus heavily weighted down up in peaks of the Rocky Mountains.
Some of the most worldly advice on the trading floor is that bull markets most always end on bullish news and bear markets on bearish news. In other words you will know a bull market has ran its course when it no longer reacts positively to bullish news. Likewise you will know when a bearish market is close to ending by when the market no longer moves lower on bearish news. Think about this for a second, the USDA yesterday announced a sale of 620,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans (over 1.2 million the past couple of weeks)...yet the NOV13 soybean contract did next to nothing, in fact at one point following the sales announcement the new-crop bean contract actually traded down over -$0.10 cents. My point is this is not the type of reaction you would traditionally see from a "bullish" market. I have learned through the years, the markets are somewhat like your own kids, be careful when they are acting sick, strange, or just not being themselves...its generally a sign that they are about to puke!
As seen on the Van Trump Report
Still Dry
Iowa is v. dry! Yr ago 30% of Iowa in D1 or worse drought, now 100%. Yr ago 0% D3 or worse, now 32%. http://t.co/NVmukv39 #NeedRain #IowaAg -- Bill Northey (@BNorthey)
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