Exactly

USDA to change report release time

Beginning in January 2013, USDA will release several major statistical reports at 11 a.m. Central Time. (Logo courtesy USDA)

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- Beginning in January 2013, USDA will release several major statistical reports at 11 a.m. Central Time, including the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Acreage, Crop Production, Grain Stocks, Prospective Plantings, and Small Grains Summary. These reports are currently released at 7:30 a.m. CT.

The release time for livestock reports will not change from its current 3 p.m. CT.

Combining high moisture corn

start of harvest 2012. first field is better than expected,but it is pretty good soil.expect lower yields as we go along...from Scott Hingtgen-Jackson County, IA

Corn Harvest- Benton County, IA

Checked Pioneer 448XR north west of Garrison at 182 bpa,17.7 moisture, 58.8 TW....from Brian Carlson- Pioneer Seed Professional, Vinton, IA

Soybean Harvest- Buchanan County, IA

Yield check - Pioneer 92Y51's in a half mile check were 59.5 bushels... from Adam White- Pioneer Seed Specialist

Coffee Shop Reply: Call Adam White to learn more about what  PIONEER SOYBEANS can do for you!! 319-325-1421

Silage baling cornstalks after the combine

Video by Scott Hingtgen-Jackson County, IA

Scott Shelby Fan Feedback

Heard all Summer bout Brantley Gilbert & just saw him on cma's. y'all all can keep that trailer court gypsi .. I'll take @Scott_Shelby2 -- Kevin Mears (@KevinMears)

They're good at math in China

China looking at a gift in the soybean markets from 24 hours ago and will take advantage of it. They can figure carryouts. -- Jason Britt (@jasonlbritt)

Fields near St. Louis

"This is what a lot of the fields look like outside of St. Louis which were harvested in August." #corn http://t.co/9U7JiDWB -- Tregg Cronin (@hedgeit_tcronin)

New Release: Rudolphi's Burning

Rudolphi's Burning on

News From The Coffee Shop
September 17, 2012 8:52 AM

Enough Already!

It’s high time that the debate of food vs. fuel subsided.  It’s also time for the government to stop meddling in policies that fan this fire.

I understand that as a nation our “food security” is perhaps the single largest trade leverage that we have.  I also do not advocate sending any more money to the Middle East for oil than we absolutely have to.   With this, I do believe that it is important to promote U.S. businesses to produce as much energy as possible.  But more importantly, I believe this energy needs to be produced in a free market, without mandates and unnecessary subsidization.

We have all heard the arguments for years coming from the corners of both the ethanol and the livestock industries… “the increased demand for corn, the rural development, the job creation, the savings at the pump, the nourishing proteins.”  Blah, bla-blah, bla-blah!

The livestock industry, which I might add, is critically important to our economy and well being, is somewhat stuck in a $2.00 corn mentality.  For many years livestock producers operated without the fear of price volatility in their inputs.  As an industry, we took this security (and profitability) for granted.  We have now entered into wildly volatile era and $2.00 corn isn’t the case anymore.  Will we ever see $2.00 corn again?  Maybe, but it will come on the heels of great technological advancements in production, or a huge game-changing decrease in demand.  So what are we waiting for?  Why not explore other options to increase stocking rates through intensive grazing?  Or explore more ways to make alternative resources more utilizable to a pig?  Why not pinpoint the inefficiencies in the overall model and intensively manage to overcome them?  The fact of the matter is, the livestock industry would rather focus their efforts on ridding the world of ethanol, as opposed to creating innovative solutions to be profitable in an era when corn is expensive.

On the other hand, ethanol is no longer an industry struggling to break out of its infancy.  The support structures that were put in place initially to aid a fledgling industry have long overrun their course.  Poor business planning and market volatility has all but weeded out the smaller, farmer owned, cooperative ethanol plants that were an attempt by local corn growers to add value to their corn.  Repeated insolvencies and improper risk management by the initial wave of ethanol plant owners have led to an industry dominated by oil companies and major agricultural conglomerates…they don’t need mandated support to prop up their businesses.  They will produce and blend ethanol as long as economically feasible as a part of their long term business plan.

It is certainly time to put these two industries on a level playing field and let the strong survive.  But policy makers need to have caution on when, how, and what the ramifications will be when the field is leveled up. 

Coming off of the worst drought in decades, perhaps the single greatest risk of policy change to corn producers is right around the corner.

Release the mandate…just not in October

Most analysts seem to be in agreement that a release of the biofuels mandate will not have a large impact on the price of commodities (namely corn) through the 2012-2013 marketing year.  However, in a somewhat stranded market that is seeking solid information (God knows the recent USDA data hasn’t provided any real stable footing!), news of this release during the wrong month could create enough short-term panic in the marketplace to drastically impact a 30 day price average.

Who would ever lobby your elected officials to release such a mandate during a price averaging period?  Perhaps companies facing the largest anticipated payout in the history of the business, payouts that could negate 40 years of gains. Did someone say crop insurance providers?

In today’s volatile markets it is not unrealistic to believe that an announcement such as this could affect the corn market by as much as $1.00-1.50/bu in the short term.  Ironically, by the time the market regained the short-term set back, the fall crop insurance pricing period will be over and insurance companies will be laughing all the way to the bank.  What could this mean to the producer?  Let’s do the math for a good producer with 1500 acres:

Assuming a proven yield of 180 bu/acre x 85% coverage = 153 guaranteed bushels.  The producer realizes a 100 bushel crop so their claim would be 53 bushels.  53 bu x $1.50/bu market move because of panic due to a mandate release = $79.50/acre in lost revenue.  1500 corn acres x $79.50= $119,250 in lost revenue.

From the crop insurance industry’s standpoint we’ll tame the number down, realizing that a 180 bushel proven yield is high for most areas.  If one uses the predicted national average of 122 bushels, relative to the initial prediction of 166 bushels/acre…((166 bu x 85%)-122) x $1.50= $28.65/acre x 95 million corn acres=$2.7 billion in saved payouts.  Where I come from that’s a lot of jack!  Enough to buy the Yankees!  And certainly enough to pull in some lobbyists (which really are just glorified prostitutes), dress them up in suits, and place them directly underneath your legislator’s desk.  But hey, we are talking about Washington…What else is new?

The Wrap Up:

With changes in policy on the horizon, it will be increasingly important for both producers of grain and livestock to understand the implications of those changes.  Weigh the risk and reward associated with this, and position your operation to be protected from, or ready to capitalize on the change. 

As for food vs. fuel:  What both the livestock and biofuels industries  need to realize is that what is growing in the fields of the Midwest is not “their” corn; it’s not their “feedstuff” or their “feedstock”.  What is growing in the field is strictly energy, and whether that energy goes to fuel animals or automobiles, that energy is for sale to the highest bidder.


Somebody get me some water…cuz we got a fire!

Editor's Note:
Rob Rudolphi resides in Eastern Iowa with his lovely wife Tara, where he is involved in varying facets of several agricultural businesses. They currently have no kids, no dogs, and certainly no cats, and are generally up for anything involving a good time!

The mission of the column is to advocate agriculture, entertain (provided that you are entertainable), serve as a catalyst for critical thinking, and challenge the status quo amongst the agricultural community.

If you have a idea that would make a good "Burn Topic" for next month's Rudolphi's Burning column, please email the idea to prburmeister@gmail.com All entries will remain anonymous.

Programming Note

The release for this month's issue of Rudolphi's Burning will be delayed until Monday, September 17th.

Thank you for reading and interacting with News from the Coffee Shop.

Crappie Fishing

WSA SNOWMOBILE RACES

Held this Sunday, September 16th at high Noon in Jesup, IA! For more information contact Brett Vogel at 319-240-8979.

Look for photos throughout the afternoon on Sunday!

Opinion- BPI Lawsuit

A little commentary on my part. I hope BPI wins in court! When are the people who try and run us out of business going to stop ( the very thing they eat almost everyday is the very thing they make crap of). Do people need to starve before they realize how good they have it here in the USA? I wish BPI the best of luck....from Scott Hingtgen- Jackson County, IA

BPI Lawsuit

BPI plans press conference at 10AM this morning on 'major' defamation lawsuit http://t.co/KIaAmTwz -- Doug Bear (@theiowabeefguy)

Soybean Harvest- Buchanan County, IA

Pioneer soybeans 92Y75's field averaged 57 bushels planted April 14th....from Adam White

USDA Report Analysis

Enough of this nonsense. Time to move on to something else. -- Darin Newsom (@DarinNewsom)

USDA Report

USDA trims yield to "just" 122.8 bu.; crop of 10.727 bil. bu. #pfnews -- Julianne Johnston (@JuliJohnston)

Soybean Harvest- Bryan Bayness

Southern Fayette County- Started beans today. 10.5% moisture. Pioneer 92y51. These beans only had 1/2 inch of rain through the month of July. They are running 35 bpa....so yes the heat and lack of moisture hurt them pretty bad. I have heard of 59 bpa beans 6 miles N/E of me. They received 5 inches in July.

From Adam White- Buchanan County IA

How reliable is the source for the 80 bushel beans on the blog? Seems hard to believe, that is pretty awesome. Dont think I'll have any checks in that range!

Reply: Remember it's News from the Coffee Shop! ! I have no idea.

Bad News

Big Sky Farms, Canada's 2nd largest hog producer, has entered into receivership. -- MB Farm Journal (@MBFarmJournal)

Weekly Crop Conditions Update

East Central Iowa: Haven’t heard of anybody rolling here yet. A couple odd fields of corn and beans my be fit by this weekend, weather permitting. I think most guys are going to try and finish up hay this week (like me), so  it is one less thing to worry about. I can’t remember a year where everyone is chomping at the bit  to get started with harvest. We hear of others who are close to being done, uncertainty of what’s out there, getting it out before stalk quality is compromised by bad weather and getting this year over with may be some or all of the reasons.

From Scott Hingtgen- Jackson County, Iowa

Grand Champion Truckload at NBS

Grand Overall & Champion Crossbred load Shown by Iowa State University, Ames, IA

Soybean Harvest- Blackhawk County, IA

Anton Farms beans yielding 80 bpa at 12% moisture, NW of La Porte City, IA this afternoon

Benton County, IA 4-H'er wins at NBS

Congratulations to Garrett Coffland of Blairstown, Iowa, for driving the Champion Duroc Barrow! For more results visit http://t.co/SzGZNjoY -- NSR (@NationalSwine)

To view all the winners CLICK HERE

From Tim Donovan- Monroe, WI

Here's what we're working with in southern Wisconsin

Grain Marketing Insight

Hedging and anticipation of Wed.'s report will keep CZ near $8. If Dr. Cordonnier is right (9.87 bil bu), CZ will see new highs. #pfnews -- Chip Flory (@ChipFlory)

Drought Math

DROUGHT IMPACT: Family of four will spend $6.75 more weekly in 2013 - Food Institute - Supermarket Guru http://t.co/3aUpt1EO -- Courtney Knupp (@CourtneyKnupp)